Ben_1148x2

Ben_1148x2

Does anyone else wonder why financial media has rebranded the top stocks to the magnificent 7 and then portrayed their dominance as an anomaly instead of the primary trend? A 10 year look at "tHe 7 StOcKs ThAt ArE LeAdInG ThE MaRkEt" vs the SPX-MAG7

Ben_1148x2

There is some consensus that the oil trade is over. I'm watching this last area of support before coming into agreement. Price fell through the VWAP anchored to this summers breakout and wicked down to test the VWAP anchored to the June 2022 high. As long as we are seeing price close above this level I will lean toward this being a correction to an uptrend.

Ben_1148x2

ANF has had a couple of strong gaps up. The last exceeded its measured range. While it looks like we may have missed the opportunity, we're coming up on its highest performing month of the year. Over the past 20 years it closes November higher 60% of the time with an average gain of 8%. To play this one, I'd look for a smaller play on a pullback to 51-52, which...

Ben_1148x2

Reclaiming some key VWAPs. I like seeing a daily open above this descending trendline and above VWAP anchored to the last time it had an open above it. The last two daily pivots occurred on the fib timezone that I drew from the drop on 8/17 to the pivot on 8/30. The next one lines up with 10/21

Ben_1148x2

The same information that signaled that we were ready for an opportunity in energy is giving a warning that we may be near a local top. If you've been in the current oil/energy trade since the breakout this summer, you're doing well. Our largest risk to this opportunity is that it is driven by political restrictions to supply and that these decisions can change...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:AVGO had a volatile premarket and a gap down on open on the news of NASDAQ:GOOG cutting them as a supplier. www.reuters.com This kind of news pops up for chip suppliers and rarely amounts to much. The gap down closed the small gap from 8/21. If we take a measured moves of the gap from the most recent highs we could see price move in a new range...

Ben_1148x2

BTC price action around these key anchored volume average weighted prices and cloned ascending/descending trend lines will let us know whether we are ready to break out. It's important to watch the VWAPs anchored from recent failed buy impulses to see if they act as resistance or become support. The VWAP from 8/29 is now support. After nearly wicking up to the...

Ben_1148x2

I'm sharing a more in-depth update to my Costco post earlier this month. NASDAQ:COST is a top holding that I like to keep a close eye on. 1-2 times a year, we can find decent opportunities to use swing trades to accumulate and I think that we have two of those opportunities in front of us right now. We've got an immediate setup with clear chart pattern and a...

Ben_1148x2

‪DDOG looks like it’s hitting resistance at the VWAP from that evening star prior to the gap down. A candle closing above is a good sign for closing the gap. Rejection would open possibility to test the measured range or the 200sma‬

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:SHOP has had an incredible year and we may have another strong accumulation opportunity in front of us. SHOP has been in a strong uptrend since recovering its 200MA in January. We the December 2022 low and an overbought condition in February 2023 set a range for the measured move of the gap up on May earnings. The May gap came close to closing during the...

Ben_1148x2

Oil prices are climbing, benefiting the energy and energy exploration sectors. I published the breakout of this opportunity with NYSE:COP in mid July. It's price history has respected these measured movements and the initial target was reached today. It's possible that we extend to $133, and potentially even set new highs in the upper section of the channel in...

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

Following a five-month decline from its all-time high in November 2022, ConocoPhillips ( NYSE:COP ) has spent the subsequent five months consolidating within an area of value in its long-term upward channel, establishing strong volume support. Historically, we've observed COP forming triangles and making measured movements on breakouts within this channel. If...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:ASO is a very well run small cap consumer discretionary. They had a fantastic earnings this quarter and raised guidance. This is in contradiction to poor earnings from big box sports goods retailers NYSE:FL and NYSE:DKS who cited retail theft and weakening consumer demand among reasons for their misses. The weekly chart shows a strong primary trend...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:COST August sales show a YoY 5% increase. They don't report until the 26th, but this suggests that we'll see a decent quarter. Current analyst 12mo consensus is ~$570. The breakout from its symmetrical triangle didn't reach the full extension that I had originally drawn. Taking a measured move into the pattern from an area of prior resistance, we can...

Ben_1148x2

Ever wonder why the market is historically weaker in August and September? On August 15 interest on treasuries is paid from the Fed "other reserves" account which appears to briefly tighten central bank liquidity (normally adverse to risk assets during the QE/QT era). On September 15 the final quarterly tax payment for the fiscal year is due, which seems to be...

Ben_1148x2

Any time that we see oil increasing I feel like we see a few articles and posts predicting $200/barrel oil. Now we've got a Forbes article predicting $300/barrel oil. For fun, here are the peak searches for $200 and $300 oil over time vs WTI price.

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:AVGO pre-earnings update. This is a large long-term holding for me and it has been one of my best performers. I am not looking to add at this time and would be taking profit if my cost basis wasn’t already so favorable. There is a lot to like about AVGO. Great dividend growth history, consistently outperforming earnings expectations, strong management...

Ben_1148x2

In looking at VWAPs anchored to various shifts in trend and sentiment I noticed the final inverted hammer on January 9 before BTC price recovers from lows and begins it's uptrend. If we anchor a VWAP from this inverted hammer we can see where the market consistently expects that price has found a new low.