Ben_1148x2

Ben_1148x2

Ever wonder why the market is historically weaker in August and September? On August 15 interest on treasuries is paid from the Fed "other reserves" account which appears to briefly tighten central bank liquidity (normally adverse to risk assets during the QE/QT era). On September 15 the final quarterly tax payment for the fiscal year is due, which seems to be...

Ben_1148x2

Any time that we see oil increasing I feel like we see a few articles and posts predicting $200/barrel oil. Now we've got a Forbes article predicting $300/barrel oil. For fun, here are the peak searches for $200 and $300 oil over time vs WTI price.

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:AVGO pre-earnings update. This is a large long-term holding for me and it has been one of my best performers. I am not looking to add at this time and would be taking profit if my cost basis wasn’t already so favorable. There is a lot to like about AVGO. Great dividend growth history, consistently outperforming earnings expectations, strong management...

Ben_1148x2

In looking at VWAPs anchored to various shifts in trend and sentiment I noticed the final inverted hammer on January 9 before BTC price recovers from lows and begins it's uptrend. If we anchor a VWAP from this inverted hammer we can see where the market consistently expects that price has found a new low.

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

Interesting opportunity for $NASDAQ:SHOO. Large price range in response out earnings. It wicked out of this symmetrical triangle, reversed when it ran into the VWAP from ATH, and then fell back to the VWAP from Februarys beginning of the formation. SHOO has slow but steady fundamental performance over the past 5 years, but isn't a strong fit with my long term...

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

NYSE:HUM is in the early stages of an island bottom reversal. Island reversals are interesting patterns. They are formed by two gaps that leave a stranded range of price action. They have failure rates of 13% for island tops and 17% for bottoms. Island bottom reversals have an average rise of 34% and a most likely rise of 20%. Island bottoms also throw back to...

Ben_1148x2 Updated 

NASDAQ:ASO is an excellent small cap in the consumer discretionary sector. They're very well managed, having been profitable with steadily improving fundamentals since their 2020 IPO. 12 month consensus price target is $67-68. ASO has bounced back from the low in June, forming a cup and handle pattern. While I'm typically not a big fan of cup and handle...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:AVGO has consolidated and built a strong volume profile since its rapid climb to the $800's in May. Recall in May that it gapped up with a breakaway gap and completed a measured movement. It recently broke out of a symmetrical triangle and completed a measured movement from that pattern. Price action returns the the cradle of the symmetrical triangle ~60%...

Ben_1148x2

Will this breakaway gap in NYSE:CAT establish a new uptrend? Gaps occur when the low price of the current day is higher than the high price of the previous day. The majority of gaps are filled over time, but a sudden gap fill usually indicates a trend reversal. A breakaway gap occurs at the beginning of a trend after a period of consolidation, similar to what...

Ben_1148x2

Long duration treasury ETF's have long been touted as hedges against risk and inflation. However, treasury prices and rates have an inverse relationship. When the US Treasury issues new bonds during a rate hiking cycle, it depresses the prices of the long duration treasuries within these ETFs. Conversely, when rates reach their peak and subsequently start to...

Ben_1148x2

Venus went into retrograde on July 22, 2023 and will remain in retrograde until September 3, 2023. Venus retrograde is a phenomenon that occurs approximately every 18 months and lasts for about 6 weeks. It has shown a notable correlation with Bitcoin's (BTC) performance. Interestingly, 2010 and 2012 were the only instances where BTC ended higher post the Venus...

Ben_1148x2

I like the repetition of the measured moves from these broadening patterns. In each formation we do not close below the previous lowest negative close preceding the new formation. This suggests continuation as long as INDEX:BTCUSD remains above $26.2k

Ben_1148x2

Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ) is making an impressive pre-market move, poised to kick off the day with a breakout from its pennant formation. By taking into account a measured move from the previous consolidation phase, coupled with a measured move from the onset of the formation, we can project a potential target range of $233-238. Interestingly, this aligns with the...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:AAPL is signaling the culmination of a wave 3 extension, suggesting a potential shift in the market dynamics. The recent surge to $195 demonstrated several signs of exhaustion, including a gap up on low volume, a DeMark sequential 9, and a bearish Harami candle pattern. These factors collectively point toward a corrective move. A retrace to the $170-175...

Ben_1148x2

This months warning from NYSE:JPM extends their impressive win streak. You have made money if you've bought at any time that they've warned us of a downturn. www.forexlive.com

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:NKE had a slight miss on EPS and a beat on revenue. They lowered their forward guidance and price took a measured gap down on open. Price has already teste the lower bound of the gap and the downtrend is likely exhausted. I'm looking at an entry ~$110-111 and the next level of overhead resistance at $116-118.

Ben_1148x2

This chart compares the price of AMEX:XLE + AMEX:XOP to Gold/Oil. The gold/oil ratio is a simple measure that divides the price of gold (per ounce) by the price of oil (per barrel). This ratio represents the number of barrels of oil that can be bought with one ounce of gold. The relative value of these two commodities and can provide insights into market...

Ben_1148x2

Background: NASDAQ:LOGI has been navigating a challenging few weeks. After a well-received earnings report in May that led to a significant increase in the company's value, June has proven less favorable. The announcement of CEO Bracken Darrell's departure on June 13, a downgrade by Citibank on June 14, and news that one of its controllers was being used to...