Chop-chop -> worst market environment for my style. I'm 100% cash, not much progress since last week, but I'm happy I could hold onto my winners and not give back basically anything. My biggest lesson right now is to learn how to be more selective with my trades. Even though I risk MUCH less than before so even if I mess them up it doesn't have much impact on my...
Going through my trading stats in a bit more detail. Strong rebound in Friday, but we are still well in a correction, I will need much more proof to get aggressive, and here are a few reasons why. 1) in general there are not that many good setups 2) most bases are quite wide and loose 3) most previous leading stocks are well off their highs and what is working...
We're quite oversold on all indexes, so at this point probably everyone is expecting some bounce next week. How strong it will be is uncertain, but the likelihood of it happening is quite high. I've been ruthlessly cutting losses on all my trades to 1/3 of my historical average losses, and due to a nice big trade on NASDAQ:JVA , I actually made $33 this week,...
Strong relative strength in car related names, especially from China, but finance names especially in insurance and credit, as well as real estate seem to be the leaders. All of these I'm reading as positive signs given these are cyclicals. On Friday we had an accumulation day on the AMEX:IWM which is my first sign to start looking for good RS stocks for...
Things looking bad. Have worked on updating my market timing indicator and did a research on my past results depending on the market environment. The results: shocking. Well, partiallly. I knew it before that I shouldn't be trading in bad times but I didn't know that the difference is so large. And for a long time (too long) I didn't even notice we are in a bad...
• Mixed signals -> large caps seem like they are just starting a new uptrend while small caps are looking the worst in a while • Breakouts overall still don't seem to work, EPs are probably better and pullback buys, though I haven't seen much traction (nor do I have much experience in those tbh) • Given I'm in a large drawdown since December, I'm doing some...
Caught the EP nicely on NASDAQ:AFRM , and the breakout on NASDAQ:MGNI , but other than that we're still in a bad environment, the distribution days and declining breadth are not good signs. Will remain cautious.
Lost probably around 10%. My motivation is shaken, but not broken. I need to find my passion in trading and put in time and effort to improve my system because we're likely going into an environment where I can't keep doing what I've been doing.
Some commentary about the big losses on Monday and how it impacted my portfolio
• likely going to go into a consolidation / pullback within this rally soon • 80% invested, with top 4 names being the largest, have 8 stocks which is a bit too high, looking to cut weak ones next week • hopefully we get a strong day early next week to sell into • not a long list of setups, likely because everything worth buying has already broken out -> won't be...
• bulls are back • my breadth indicator finally showed a buy signal on Friday, indexes have retaken key moving averages after a month of consolidation • seems like a healthy correction and we have all the reasons to have another leg higher • would note that I'm still minimally invested and have only 2 positions, keeping size small, until I see more traction • in...
• Nothing exciting, staying in cash, not looking to enter any longs • Significantly downsized my position sizes and average losses, which improved my RR. Taking gains and losses early if anything • Commodities are the clear winners, so I'm glad that a large portion of my passive account is there, good hedge
• ended up flat for the week, despite a lot of trades, was up to 100% invested on Thursday, but ended up back to 17% • still cautious, the market might put breakouts on hold and we can see a correction • there are a lot of setups, good setups even, but I expect the fail rate to be very high going forward, until the market broadens out • the market is still led by...
• still only 14% invested, the week was quite bad, most stocks sold off • however, some stocks, especially space names, tech and retail are holding up very well • given we are quite oversold short term and we could get an aggressive rebound next week, these stocks might be good breakout candidates • will still stay small in terms of position sizing (5% max) until...
• only 21% invested, got shaken out of most of my positions • large bad trades this week cost me almost $300 or 10% of my account • I will not put large positions again in bad and worsening market breadth environment • watchlist is the shortest it's been in a while, setups are not the best either • most setups are in finance names, I think they could be leaders...
• extended markets? ✓ • breadth worsening? ✓ • market timing signal showing a sell signal? ✓ • been steadily reducing leverage because I'm expecting a short term pullback? ✓ That's the perfect time to go all in on all the stocks that are hitting your alerts today! Especially stocks you have no idea about but they all seem to be moving together! It must be smart...
• going through my portfolio performance in detail, seeing positive signs in my RR trend, steady losses, but large gains recently • consumer discretionary and retail are extremely strong. could be a signal for a continued bull market, didn't mention in the video but last week's economic data shows continued strength in consumer spending and increase in wages,...
NASDAQ:NNE is reporting earnings today and I have a large long position. It could go either way. Also have NASDAQ:LX and NASDAQ:API working out beautifully, but concerned about the market being extended short term, so I did some risk management tactics on some of the weaker movers in my portfolio. It always happens that when I have 1) a generally extended...