Binary_Forecasting_Service

Binary_Forecasting_Service

Continuing from notes in PART 3, this post serves several purposes. Let's summarize the "LONG TO 3850" first. I have already expounded on this subject several times but in danger of repeating myself: 1) we are well past "the entry" weeks ago at 2590s 2) the last "good entry" for 3850 is actually in March, 2650-2670 3) but the last STRONG ENTRY, is about...

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Price has rejected all faster combinations of this move. So no update needed until after FOMC in late January. This means 2765-ish before FOMC and 2675-ish after FOMC before 2850-2900 in late February. Until then, we are total long with total conviction.

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01/02/25, 4:07 PM ET, New York time: What does that even look like? So first, in chart above, the light gray rectangle was the 12/30 or 12/31 high 2760-2820 original target for "December long". The second move to 2595 on 12/30 apparently fooled a major player and from the looks of short term trend maps out 60 hours or until 3 AM ET Tuesday, they are going to be...

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Since Trump got elected, we have eliminated the 2380-2400 check down to 45-year trend line. We have raised the floor to 2450, 2480, 2520, 2580, now we are breaching 2600 current March low looks like 2618 AND RISING. It is NO LONGER OBVIOUS THAT the check down after 2800s is under 2680s. So what this means is that the "December long" which became "January...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

This is most complete draft finish minutes ago. This is published for our group to track the move ending 12/30. Note that the 12/30, 2820s exit is simultaneously the entry for JANUARY SHORT to 2540s. 190 points in 12 days is pretty damn good reason to post this.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

In PART 5, I wrote that my only concern was a shift to a faster route than PART 5 (but still slower than PART 4). With the 2024 elections in the history books, I have enough now to call the entire route for the next 27 months or basically to February of 2027 to a high of 4800 (or higher). In last notes in previous post, I wrote that the 2780 high before November...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

First, thank you for all your kind messages but the reality is there is not enough demand for me to keep doing "continuous forecasting". With that said, I know now PART 3-6 with link here (hit replay twice): ... is more than likely to miss the route to 3600-3750. Since PART 4 (posted months ago) is not going to help, PART 5 is a summary of what I wrote at...

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We are going to go to 3600-3750 by September to December of next year. However, there is going to be a giant sideways to up move that can take four months to resolve before price moves aggressively higher in February next year. That said, price action has not revealed "which sideways to up pattern this will be". Beyond that, I am losing interest in the...

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LEGENDS NEVER DIE, OR SO I HEAR: This is a pretty massive call now that we are here and because of the the time restriction. First, I fully expect price to bet at 2645-2650 on morning of 10/07. Halloween is 10/31, so in that range there are less than 19 trading days to run up 425 points or 16%. A call for gold to move 16% is meaningless by itself. BUT A...

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So after NFP, price went down as expected. However, I asked that if bulls wanted to move for a miracle route, that they move for 2675. They got to 2670, this is not enough to pull off the miracle route but it "bought more time". At 2:14 PM ET, trend maps say that this rally to "3000 BY HALLOWEEN" is very much alive but the short term technical damage needs to...

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A couple hours ago, bears of the UK forced the red line to break and the problem is that IT HELD. In my humbled opinion, this has ALMOST WRECKED THE BULLISH ROUTES UP. The only way to save it is to move up PAST THE RED LINE where the blue arrow is. Usually in this spot, bulls will make 2 attempts in the next 3 hours to retake the red line. The problem is...

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There is only so much stalling price can do in the short term. At some point, medium-long momentum overwhelms the short term resistance. At 2657.xx as I type that's 413 pts call for exactly four weeks out. That is basically 100+ average each week from here to Halloween. In chart above, yellow is favored over both gray and blue. There should be a fourth...

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We do 2735 in New York tomorrow, maybe even a bit more. But here's how we got here from DRAFT 10-10: 1) the shape of price action UNTIL HOURS AGO ... 2) was still a bearish pattern 3) but holding above resistance here can only mean 2735 4) and that comes tomorrow 5) this is that situation where you BUY EVERY SINGLE RETRACE 6) let's get this up first!!

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So in moving from bearish setup to a bullish setup, all the trends are turning slowly. This will create a "long sideways to up move" that will last through all of Thursday. So the vertical price action past 2670 will not begin seriously UNTIL ALMOST LONDON OPEN ON FRIDAY, this will run all of Friday and likely through Sunday night in a much bigger sideways to up...

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So in the last 2 hours we eliminated anymore draw down, retraces, blah blah. And here's a list of what that means: a) the October high target should be 3070 b) the November high target is 3250 c) the December high target is 3400-3500 d) but that's only half the ultimate rally e) that places ceiling in 2025 at 5300+ f) we will be talking about $150 silver next...

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In 10-6, I had warned about 2-way vol saying that price could hit 2665 twice. The front end though didn't break 2556, so I misread the intraday 2-way vol as having basically died. It didn't, it just stalled for a while. So what? So same pattern as 10-7 but pushed forward a bit with more 2-way vol. In chart above, yellows are from 10-7. Gray is adjusted...

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This one the best route in my opinion, to drop 80 points bullishly. Why? because it has 40 pt retrace from the bottom built in by Sunday night. I do not love this route because price just broke that dashed line already and that usually means it won't work. But I don't have a close second place. So we have to let 16-20 hours play out and I will draft again.

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10/02, 12:27 AM ET, 2655.25 after a dip to 2653. I said in 10-5 that the break of dashed line would kill blue route. And in "JUST RIGHT NOW #002", I said that means 2627 again. Now I know that it means 2593 and 2572. The 2570 line is MAJOR SUPPORT, that also gives us the 115-pt correction we need to continue up. But the question is of course, can we hit 3000...