HEADER - Last two posts have invalidated. So here short term to Tuesday 8/29. SUMMARY - From last note in MQP-IER-001, down first then close strong after Powell's Jackson Hole Speech. Nothing "big" expected for some time. DETAILS - This is just basically what short term says now. As usual, will add notes as we go.
HEADER - This is where we got to from previous post. Since it has reached a new stage, it deserves a new post. SUMMARY - Gold to 1800 by 09/15/23, but I'm thinking more like 09/06/23 (edited, I previously wrote 09/05/23). DETAILS - The details are in the linked post below. The last third to half of it is how we got here. STRATEGY - Pick a spot and short,...
HEADER - We are about 26-30 hours from entry short for Wed 8/23. Updated route looks like this. SUMMARY - This is update for last post. DETAILS - See previous post for background. STRATEGY - Short 8/23 1902-1913 and cover 8/28 1835-ish. NOTES - Will add as we go per usual.
HEADER - This is likely the last draft for this move. SUMMARY - The coiling of a vertical spike to 2070-2090 is going to reach the limit of coiling in 36-54 hours. This move is picture perfect setup now. If it is going to invalidate, it will do so in 36-54 hours. DETAILS - See previous posts for details. NOTES - Per usual will add more soon.
HEADER - Obviously I am already thinking of a PART 2, so this is part 1. SUMMARY - This is where we are now, considering price action to close out Friday. DETAILS - See previous posts for how we got here. STRATEGY - Leveraged long. More soon.
HEADER - Bulls and bears have short term equilibrium at 1935. It's going to break tomorrow like this. SUMMARY - I can't handicap this one. My gut say long. But that's all I have. DETAILS - So everything under 2 days favor bulls some what. Everything from there to 28 days favor bears. Everything higher favor bulls. The whole picture favor bulls. But it...
HEADER - Updated again. SUMMARY - Today's price action says this now to 8/15. Slower and lower. The money gets pushed to after NFP report. 2145 instead of 2200. DETAILS - This is where we are now. Check out previous posts for background. Links below. I will update as much as possible through 8/15.
HEADER - This has been corrected for timezone. For some reason it was set for Honolulu. I switched it to ET or NY time. For the rest of this chart (7/31-8/16) 15-min bars are fine. SUMMARY - This just continues from last post. We are getting ready to explode in under 48 hours. There's just a few more steps that needs to happen. DETAILS - Please read...
HEADER - Linear regression fractals say something has to give and that something should look like this. SUMMARY - Nothing interesting until Tuesday night after U.S. markets (NY) closes. Then we head up vertically continuously, first brake should be 2080-ish either on Friday 8/4 or Sunday 8/6. The rest should follow boxes until question marks area. It seems...
HEADER - From the ashes of failure I have returned to bring you new ATH by 08/01/2003. All this, 14 days out. SUMMARY - Regressions from micro, short, medium, intermediate, long, very long, and all time added together say this will happen to a very high degree of confidence. DETAILS - See previous post for how we got here. STRATEGY - If you are frisky, short...
HEADER - This is regressions say are the two most likely paths for the next 2 weeks. SUMMARY - Yesterday, I posted notes prior to PPI release (in previous forecast linked below) of what the incoming price action should look like. This is to clarify that now that we have a bit more information. DETAILS - See previous posts for details. NOTES 1 - Will add some...
HEADER - Things are moving quickly. No time to explain why. SUMMARY - So CPI is tomorrow, Wednesday, 8:30 AM, ET. PPI is Thursday at the same time. Regressions say 2050 by 7/17, 2100 by 7/27. DETAILS - See prior post for how we got here.
HEADER - U.S. COVID-19 excess deaths shifted the 2020-2023 demographics curve for 40-45 year old population (as well as everyone older) while Jerome Powell deftly avoided FED mistake of 1970's. This macro situation is happening with regressions indicating next move to 1840 will happen by mid July and 1750 by mid October. SUMMARY - Move to 1840 by mid-July...
HEADER - This is bear outcome after bull outcome has been iced. SUMMARY - Unless there is a miracle defrosting, this should be the next series of boxes. DETAILS - It is a weak short for sometime into June. NOTES - Will add if I have time.
HEADER - Not with a bang but with a whimper. T.S. ELLIOT. SUMMARY - Despite being more capable at forecasting then I've ever been, I don't see a way forward for this type of work bc of my personal failures. So this is the way my work ends, and this post the final ending. DETAILS - This will finish the run to 2150-ish in 5-20 to 6-20 window, as originally...
HEADER - More detailed than DRAFT 1. SUMMARY - IF it's going to move, it'll move like this. DETAILS - This looks like 72-hours now, not 36, but I didn't want to change the title. NOTES - Later.
HEADER - Things are moving quickly no time to explain. SUMMARY - This is what 22-min bars is saying for next 36 hours. DETAILS - I'm aware I published MAY DOUBLETOP DRAFT 1 last night. But this must come first. NOTES 1 - The setup is complete for this move, however weird it maybe, but this is what it says. NOTES 2 - Odds of a move to 1940 is real so that's...
HEADER - This is the theoretical favorite for next 24 hours. SUMMARY - There can only be so much "delay". This because too much delay equals trend change. So SHORT TERM BEAR thesis has 24 hours to prove it. DETAILS - See previous draft for background. NOTES 1 - It pretty has to hit perfect, perfect, so I am ready to be wrong with this one. a) so on the way...