Binary_Forecasting_Service

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is continuation from PART 2. SUMMARY - Price action in silver and silver majors are undeniable evidence something has changed. Does it mean the revival of gold bull thesis? I am not sure, but if I have to pick a route there, it would go like this. DETAILS - Please read PART 2 for background. Previous related work also linked below. NOTES 1)...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - Odds say this is NOT an actual pivot by the FED, but simply an acknowledgment that they've done some real work on inflation expectations. SUMMARY - This is the most likely move FOR TODAY ONLY. There are many reasons why. I will detail some below. DETAILS - We last left off on "TO SUM IT UP DRAFT 4". Links to all four drafts and the previous...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is the "modified orange route" from DRAFT 4. SUMMARY - Please read previous posts, links below, for background. DETAILS - Continuing from last post, "RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2": 1) if you straddled options ahead of FOMC, you're doing fine 2) if you waited for it to break 1670 before entering, well it didn't 3) I stated that if it swings down, we...

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - This is the latest in trend and momentum. SUMMARY - Looks like price is waiting for Nov FOMC, which is Wed 11/02. DETAILS - Geometric symmetry cycles say blue route is more likely. EVERYTHING ELSE says orange route is the way. STRATEGY - Straddle November FOMC, after which short Dec FOMC.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - Today is 10/20. Bulls need to show up at 1607 or we are going to 1540 by 10/28, 1500 likely 11/02-11/07. SUMMARY - The odds of a bull outcome is EVAPORATING AS I TYPE THIS (see drafts 1 and 2 for background). We are now looking at 1200s by January 7, 2023. DETAILS - See previous posts for background and history. Links are below. Let's start...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - There are 2 paths now for next 62 days, that is until 12/20. SUMMARY - Bearish route is 7/10 favorite. The trade is to short the bounce 12/11 to 12/22. FOMC is 12/14 or so, need to confirm. DETAILS - The decisive window is NOW TO 11/07. October NFP reports on 11/04. 1607 is most recent low AND MUST HOLD THROUGH 11/07 FOR BULLS TO HAVE A REAL CHANCE....

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - These are the four routes to 2023 implied by price action. My money is on the bright one. SUMMARY - The light gray route in the middle was most likely on 8/6. The blue route below one was most likely on 9/27. The high one was "rumors" projection on 9/28 (basically a fractal search). My money is on the bright one. DETAILS - Links for the first 3 are...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - Bank of England first to capitulate, who next and when? SUMMARY - Theoretical shape of pivot pricing vs DRAFT 7 of gold crash ending. DETAILS - FIrst box is 10/07 NFP. Second box is 11/02 FOMC. Very early right now (1640) still favors bear route 8:1), but these rumors are backed by some evidence (see GBPUSD move right now).

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - So we have reached a point where cross-checking periodic ratio of momentum waves is literally SCREAMING that his should be the outcome. SUMMARY - First, the highlight is almost the same as draft 6. The difference is the highlighted forecast is should be strong for 7 weeks, meaning price should reflect highlight closely to 11/14/22. DETAILS - This...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - It's still early, but this route (draft 6) is gaining (in terms of probability) on draft 5, which is just a more detailed version than draft 4. SUMMARY - The major difference is the retrace at "A". The price action for the last 3 days or so is indicating a retrace to 1655-ish right at 10/06-10/07. September NFP reports on 10/07 morning. So? What...

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - At 1H bar with super detailing. SUMMARY - This is almost the same as draft 4, but with truly completed super-detailing on short term regressions. DETAILS - It has taken so long to get here, let's see if my last seven years have been worth it. Good luck with this. If price deviate from highlights more than $10 upside, be extremely careful.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - Price action in silver does not say this should happen to gold. Standalone, this is the most likely path for gold prices to 10/10, as of RIGHT NOW. SUMMARY - FOMC is Wed 9/21. However, Sun 9/25 and Mon 9/26 are decisive dates for price action. DETAILS - The horizontal line is basically 1676 and the vertical line is 12:00 AM ET, Monday 9/26. The...

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - This is a quick supplement for the previous post, which is: SUMMARY - Basically, drawing a VERY ROUGH DRAFT of what silver should do through 10/10. That is to say, I am trying to DISPROVE gold forecast in "GOLD CRASH ENDING 4" right above. DETAILS? - I don't see a bullish outcome immediately recognizable. There's no smooth set of bullish curves I...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is it. SUMMARY - The next 6 trading days dedides the ultimate fate of gold bull market for a very long time. DETAILS - Blue route favored 90% vs field and climbing quickly at this hour. At cirle short. Take money off the table at 1560. The final box is 1560-1450, but it is unknown at this time.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - For what it's worth. This is what trend and momentum are saying now. SUMMARY - Its going to speed up, but the hard move down t to 1560 and lower is looking like after 9/25. DETAILS? - I am out of time. I am suspicious that gold is moving down faster than silver and GDX.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is the end of gold bull thesis. SUMMARY - This is what price regressions show cumulatively for all available time frames (since 1960s). For what it's worth, this is also then end of of my development of regression-based forecasting. Kind of funny that my first published idea was also called "gold crash", but it is what it is. PREREQUISITES...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This would be next move in gold crash, which keeps getting pushed lower, but longer (more time to go down). SUMMARY - N/A DETAILS - This move should hit pretty close, says regression forecasting. Obviously 1680 area is the line in the sand.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is final draft for this trade. SUMMARY - Bear route is favored by 8:1:1 (bear:bull:neutral). DETAILS - See previous drafts for history. Entry is 8/25. Exit should be 8/30 or 8/1, depending on risk tolerance. NOTES - This is it. Do or die for this methodology. Will review on 8/31.