Binary_Forecasting_Service

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - This is a follow up to 1D. This forecast has exceptionally high confidence from a regression-driven standpoint because all the different ratios are starting to stay the same thing, which is 1570+/-10 BY END OF 8/31/02. SUMMARY (BACKGROUND/EVIDENCE) - This forecast is the 6th in the series for this move to mid-1500s. So first, replay the first four so...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is an even more thoroughly complete draft than previous 1C draft. Odds of 1610 target by 9/1 are 85%, and odds still climbing from regressions point of view if bold down-trend-line resistance holds to 8/26. SUMMARY - In this chart, all curved lines are ratio-ed sets of regressions to forecast this move. All vertical lines are "after" expected...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is the super-detailing for 1C draft with some up minor updates due to "wave reconciliation". SUMMARY - This is what regressions show is coming, with high confidence and complete due diligence. DETAILS - See previous posts for background. This is everything I've worked on for 7 years. This is the last draft for this move until December 20. I...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This should be called SUPER LIQUIDITY CRISIS. This is overall route of 1C. There will not be a "1D". But I will make a super detailed 1-C later, hopefully before 9/10 if I have time. SUMMARY - This is how gold is going to die in December-January window. So there's a move from 1725-ish all the way to 1125 in late December ending in late January. ...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - I am still on post 1B, link is below. This is just a number of thoughts before I can post 1C. SUMMARY - Previously, in 1B, I stated that September should feature 1550. I now believe this number should be 1450. While a great deal still depends on price action before JACKSON HOLE FOMC, I want to get this page up so I do not need to explain myself if...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is super detailing for most likely route for spot gold price from 7/26 to 9/11, or next 7 weeks. SUMMARY - From a due diligence point of view, this is my greatest work ever. By this, I mean next 1200 days of price action, from now to August 2025. You can view long term chart in notes in draft 1A, link below. This is focused specifically on all...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is my answer for gold's curious price action since 1800. SUMMARY - Short around 1780, preferably AFTER 8/22. Cover around 1550, preferably BEFORE 9/16. DETAILS - This move is all technical So even though I forecast this with demographics thesis, I would make the same forecast based on regressions alone. GC late September puts is what I am...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER -The setup now is for a massive break down starting around Jackson Hole FOMC (late August, so let's say 8/25) to September 15th. SUMMARY - This is going to be the end of gold bull for another 10 years. The tail end of this move is starting to look like 2013. DETAILS - Nothing in particular, except that red box needs to get hit in 40 days (so 1860+ by...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - It's hard to see gold getting out of this one. SUMMARY - Highest inflation in 40 years and gold keeps getting destroyed. Fundamentals? Really? DETAILS - Today is 7/12, Wednesday 7/13 is CPI and also full moon, 7/14 is PPI. FOMC is 7/27. All combined regressions say this week closes (which is end of day 7/15 or 66 hours out) at 1580-1620. Links...

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - Still formulating. SUMMARY - NFP beat. Another .75% for July 27 hike. So once we hit 1655-65 what happens? The next legit floor is 1530 and then 1480. DETAILS - Next 3 weeks we hit 1530, maybe even 2 weeks. That's all for now.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - Right now I have 7/13 1740 puts and 7/20 1750 calls. This is would be implied outcome if we tag 1650-1665 on 7/12. SUMMARY - The first fundamental should be liquidity, so don't fight Fed. DETAILS - If it does take this path, Aug-Sep short will make up for it. More on this if we break under 1675 meaningfully.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - I can't disprove the move to 1650-1665 by Tuesday 7/12, so I am simultaneously long and short with a straddle. SUMMARY - I own 7/13 1740 puts AND 7/20 1750 calls with costs split 60/40 short because of momentum. DETAILS - Draft 6 long is linked below.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - It's getting really hard to keep a long term bullish view. This is what NEEDS TO HAPPEN in order to hold that view. SUMMARY - In draft 5 and 5B, I had the swing as 1770 to 1920. Since we dropped 40 under the low, we need 40 over the high - so 1960 - by 9/20-ish to "hold the curves", especially all the really long ones. DETAILS - If this plays, it...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is draft 5B at 1 day bars w/ similar channels proposed in draft 4. SUMMARY - I think it makes more sense to show them together. DETAIL - Drafts 1-5 are linked below.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - Detailing until October. SUMMARY - Weakness prior to 7/8 NFP can extend to 7/27 FOMC. Should be bought circa 1770 with 1925 target in September. DETAILS - Drafts 1-4 are linked below. The pattern of price action to December and beyond has not changed at all.

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - Data mining eliminated "24" and eliminated most blind spots for 23. This is draft 4. SUMMARY - After checking all my boxes, this is the move. All that is left is getting to December. From here on out, I will discuss the core fundamentals of my gold price bull market thesis and all the the technicals involve from price regressions point of view on...

Binary_Forecasting_Service Updated 

HEADER - This is supplement for 24 DRAFT 1. SUMMARY - This is the same chart, but zoomed to 4HR bars. DETAILS - No time for edits, this will make more sense later.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

HEADER - A lot needs to happen here, but this is shape of curve for this story SUMMARY - Will unemployment rise scare the FED to reverse? DETAILS - I have a lot to share but no time to share it. I have some conviction in this move. July 8th is NFP. July 27th is FOMC. I see 2240 by 9/26/22. Will share more if I have time. All that said, I've made my 10%...