This is a summary of Michael Pettis' 'Can China’s Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2–3 Percent?' carnegieendowment.org As the text was quite long, this summarizes some critical points. China's high investment share of GDP and growing debt burden are interrelated, stemming from an investment-driven growth model that began in the 1980s when the country needed...
In light of the precarious global economy and numerous contributing factors, such as deglobalization, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, an aging population, and an overwhelming amount of debt, the Federal Reserve's role and efficacy in the current economic climate have come into question. Drawing on Jeff Snider's work, it is increasingly evident that...
Recently the market's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate peaking around 5% and then coming down at the end of Q4 2023 changed, with the market now seeing rates going to 5.5%. Many investors/analysts are discussing bond yields heading to 6% and staying higher for longer. However, is that going to happen? What is sentiment telling us right now? What is data...
It looks like stocks bottomed today, but what is my evidence, and why would I say that? 1. This correction has been very orderly, and VIX has been going down along with stocks, which means something is happening. 2. Stocks have held exceptionally well despite rising interest rates and the DXY. 3. We have continuous liquidity injections by most central banks, and...
Gold has had a very healthy pullback into a critical zone. Last year it had a significant move down, took out all the lows around 1700, and bounced hard. Despite interest rates and the US Dollar being much higher than 1-2 years ago, Gold has held extremely well. After its rally since its November bottom, it finally pulled back and got into crucial support. To...
Something bullish is happening in China, potentially primarily due to the reopening and all the liquidity injections by the PBoC. China never raised rates while slowly adding liquidity to markets. We saw a significant capitulation when Xi became emperor for life by removing everyone that could potentially cause trouble to him from the CCP, as well as when we first...
EURUSD closed the year well and above many key support levels, and it even closed above several diagonals, as did several other currencies vs. the USD. On the one hand, the USD may have peaked, especially as the DXY swept a critical low and retested its 2015-2020 highs. The year has started with a EURUSD dump, and the pair has closed below its Monthly and Yearly...
Stocks closed pretty strong for the year, and the yearly open filled a gap very quickly. At the moment, I see very little evidence that the year will start with a massive dump, especially after 2022 was so brutal for stocks, bonds, and crypto. It looks more likely that things will first go up and then potentially go down. The market resuming its bounce makes more...
Apple is one of the companies whose stock price is overvalued, and the company is facing several severe issues: 1. Big tech layoffs. If US tech is doing quite poorly and companies are laying off people, they probably won't buy new equipment or software. The fired tech workers probably won't be buying stuff for themselves either, and neither will those that see...
Silver had a huge move up in 2020, but that was all it managed to do back then. Since its first significant peak in August 2020, it went sideways and started declining. Silver was in a big bear market since 2011, then entered an accumulation range, and then had its capitulation move in March 2020. Then with all the fiscal stimulus, it skyrocketed, but most capital...
Despite Copper falling 38% from its ATHs, we still haven't seen deflation, even though inflation seems to have peaked for now. The inflation story doesn't seem to be over; even inflation moderates and goes close to or below 2%. The big problem right now is that the Copper inventories are extremely low and that the demand for Copper seems to be increasing because...
Natural gas in the US is collapsing. In part this has to do with LNG exports to the rest of the world being halted due to a fire to one of the export terminals. However in my honest opinion, there is more to it. It probably has to do more with the deflationary forces taking over, as high interest rates, money supply shrinking and inflation being too high, have...
The truth is that I don't know if it's over or not. It certainly feels like the USDJPY pair is going a lot lower, given that the Fed is very close to pausing and cutting rates in 2023. Deflation has always benefited the Yen, which might be the case again. The BoJ took the best stance of all central banks, as they held rates low and provided liquidity when the...
I see many people expecting a massive crash because the yield curve has inverted, but they forget that stocks fell as the yield curve was inverting, something that didn't happen in the previous times. Before the earlier crashes, stocks rose before the inversion and kept growing for a bit after the inversion. In 1989 stocks didn't even fall after the 10y2y curve...
I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely...
Hello everyone! As Pelosi is going to Taiwan, things could get ugly between China and the US, sending gold higher. However, gold is currently at key resistance, and the quadruple/quintuple bottom lower will most likely break. For a while, I've mentioned how I believe gold will go to 1650 and potentially down to 1300 before it bottoms. There are many different...
A few months ago, I proposed USDCNH/USDCNY consolidating for a bit and then going higher, as such strong moves usually follow through. The Chinese economy looks extremely weak for multiple reasons, and I see no way that the CNH/CNY won't lose much of its value relative to the dollar. Technically it is ready for another strong move higher, and the fact that Pelosi...
The idea is very simple... Despite it having a significantly higher interest rate than the US, capital isn't flowing in the country. Poland is in a very tough place right now, as it has a relatively small economy and doesn't have a currency that is widely used. Europe overall is a big mess, and the PLN is affected by the EUR too. The ECB still has rates at -0.5%...
