CMT_Association

CMT_Association

The US 10-year yield has pulled back from 3.50% to 2.75%, which is a sizeable drop by any stretch of imagination. The Fed has clearly said its current focus is on price stability and with yesterday's employment numbers, there is still little reason to believe that fears of a so-called slowdown, or even worse - a recession, are showing up in high frequency data...

CMT_Association

How can we tell whether a downturn is just a normal part of a solid bull market, or the beginning of a major downdraft? We need to have a way to identify when long-term trends are changing. One way to guard against being caught on the opposite side of a trend is to apply technical indicators that can isolate major trend shifts and reduce psychological biases....

CMT_Association

The recent plunge in commodities has seen Gasoline futures tumble --- price is down 20% from its recent highs -- and evidence is mounting there could be more. Here is what we are seeing under the surface: 1. Head and shoulders activated: The market has broken the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern, which is a pattern with 3 peaks, where the central peak...

CMT_Association

To see the original post I'm referring to, please click on the image below: *** While the S&P500; hasn't been so friendly to us in the time that's passed since the post above, and while prices have certainly fallen further, I continue to find evidence that this market could be finding a bottom. Last time, I mentioned that the momentum indicator, RSI (which...

CMT_Association

Mid-Year Update: Part 1: Bonds/Rates: I begin each year looking at monthly perspective charts of Equity, Rates, Commodities and DXY. Those posts can be found in their entirety, with extensive fundamental support, in the links below. I will update views on the four markets over the next few weeks. The early 2022 the conclusions were: - Bonds: A bull market...

CMT_Association

Natural Gas: The essence of techncial analysis (at least in my opinion) is ascertaining the ebb and flow of supply and demand. Natural Gas futures offers a great example of a market which, despite ultra-bullish headlines, displayed clear signs of strengthening supply/falling demand prior to breaking hard. The reduction of thrust or the declining net result of...

CMT_Association

JPY/USD: It’s not often that a macro breakdown of this magnitude presents itself, but Dollar/Yen is providing the opportunity to monitor and learn from just such a breakdown in real time. One of the more interesting mysteries of the last two decades has been the durability of the JPY. · Years of extremely accommodative monetary policy, Negative Interest...

CMT_Association

Negative Divergences Often Warn of Impending Declines: Bitcoin Highlighted…. Is Gold Next? OTC:GBTC COMEX:GC1! INDEX:BTCUSD The CMT Association is proud to publish this guest post from Louise Yamada CMT. Louise was a Managing Director and Head of Technical Research for Smith Barney (Citigroup), and while there, was a perennial leader in the Institutional...

CMT_Association

Note that this is not a trade recommendation but simply illustration of a particular approach. There are multiple reasons that I wouldn't execute this particular idea at this time, but those considerations are for another post. Those of you who have followed my work for the last few months know that I prefer simple. The triple screen chart perspective is...

CMT_Association

FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. I can feel FOMO’s omnipresence in the trading world right now. We have seen some large career changing moves in Commodities & Futures as of late. Extend the lookback time a few years and the Cryptocurrency universe is surely included. I decided to turn to my favorite trading psychologists, Brett Steenbarger,PhD. Brett has been in the...

CMT_Association

Today we have a daily chart of the S&P500 ($SPX) with two momentum indicators below it: 1. RSI (Relative Strength Index), and 2. MACD (Moving Average Conference Divergence) When I took the chart back two years, I didn't see anything that led me to believe there was a ton of potential support at these levels, so I zoomed in and went back (just under) a year into...

CMT_Association

TVC:US10Y TVC:NYA A reminder that falling bond yields are synonymous with higher bond prices. In other words, a downtrend in yield equates to a bull market in bonds. In January, bonds were still in a technical bull market as defined by the broad declining channel that had contained the 40 year bull market. In March the break of that downtrend turned the macro...

CMT_Association

Keeping it simple, the dollar index has been on a tear, but things are getting pretty interesting. So, here goes: 1. We broke above the Jan '17 high, but so far have failed to experience follow through to the upside 2. What is occurring is important, but where it is happening , even more so 3. Prices are currently forming a doji on the monthlies (not sure how...

CMT_Association

So Ether has dropped a lot from its record, around 60% last I saw. Classical TA suggests we may be nowhere close to where this bear market ends. So, the ominous head and shoulders top got activated with the recent drop. The measured objective suggests a drop below $1000. Should it happen? Of course not. Will it happen? We don't know. But after looking at a few...

CMT_Association

So, the Russian invasion of Ukraine moved oil and how! The move into the 135 area was short-lived and since the day of the early March top, Brent prices have been volatile but the churn has been inside of a large range, defined by the initial drop from 135 to 90. From an Elliott wave perspective, both bull and bear themes are currently active, but a resolution...

CMT_Association

So basically, went back to the time since the post GFC crash. The interaction between price and the Ichimoku Kijun sen throws up some very interesting insights. Let's go a little deeper -- 1) The Kijun is simply the highest high to lowest low midpoint of the last 26 periods, i.e. in this case, 26 months 2) The recovery post the 2008-2009 crash climbed above the...

CMT_Association

So, this one counts nicely on the weeklies and is preferred based on the weight of the presently available evidence. As per this count: 1) The rally since the Dec '15 lows is impulsive and is incomplete with price currently in w(4) of this rally 2) w(3) is extended and w1 of (3) has been marked as a Leading Diagonal 3) The entire sideways movement since the third...

CMT_Association

The S&P 500 crashed below 4000 yesterday as selling continued unabated despite hopes of an intraday recovery. However, the drop to the session lows of 3975 may have hit an important support level. The modified pitchfork drawn off the all time high of Jan 4 '22 and the first crash lows of 4818 and connected to the Feb 24th low of 4115 shows how the index found...