CMT_Association

CMT_Association

Silver's decline within what fits well as a classical, potential "descending triangle" pattern has now brought the metal to a major zone of polarity -- former resistance that is now a major support level. There have been several attempts to hold $21 in the last couple of years, all of which were successful. Now we are back at it again and given the weight of the...

CMT_Association Updated 

Keeping it simple here using monthly Ichimoku and basic Fibonacci clustering. 1. Month is still in early stages, but current shape looks like some sort of a doji candle -- we won't know for sure what its going to be unless we move into next month (while I was analyzing the chart, looked like an inverted hammer) 2. 50% of the entire move from the 2016 hammer low...

CMT_Association

Not much of an explanation needed here... financials have been struggling, and JPM right along with them. What's notable here is that price has fallen below the pre-COVID highs, which means that all recapture, plus growth obtained prior to COVID, has all be vanished for stockholders of the mega-bank. Written & Annotated for the CMT Association. Adam D. Koós,...

CMT_Association

Been watching $BTC closer than usual because we have a client with an extremely large position in crypto and we're working on partial liquidation plans in the very near future. Plans are to DCA (Dollar Cost Average) out of it to the tune of roughly $11MM net-after-tax (or $14MM gross), which would mean something like selling $3MM every week for four weeks, or...

CMT_Association

One of the most important, yet consistently underappreciated, aspects of technical analysis is the concept of relative strength. As a portfolio manager, one must be held accountable to some type of benchmark. And thus, if we want to outperform said benchmark, we most own things that are outperforming the benchmark! Participating in trends and capturing...

CMT_Association

20-year US Treasury bonds already broke an important level of support (red arrow) and yet again, the ETF finds itself at a crucial crossroads as rates continue to rise, punishing the long-end of the yield curve. "We" have been taught (as a country) to think "bonds are safe," yet we can clearly see that these 20-year bonds, backed by the full faith of the U.S....

CMT_Association

Here Are 3 Things You Need To Know “Technically” about the High and Low Oil Price Brent crude oil prices rose steadily for months and surged more than 72% over the last one year-climbed to 14- years high of $139 per barrel. After fluctuating wildly the price per barrel of Brent oil appreciated more than 33% since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24 and...

CMT_Association

The Semiconductor ETF SMH is meeting resistance here @ 260. The last several times the SMH index ETF met this trend resistance has resulted in a push to lower lows. Could this time be different? The MFI (Money Flow Index) seems to be suggesting it is a possibility. Although SMH is riding a downtrend, SMH price volume momentum is in overbought territory. A SMH...

CMT_Association

Nothing too fancy here... Lower-lows in the S&P500 ($SPX) accompanied by higher-lows in RSI(14)... classic positive momentum divergence. Violation of the divergence would occur if RSI fell below the ascending trend line below the lows. This would almost certainly be accompanied by further downside in the S&P500, which is clearly in a downtrend (on an...

CMT_Association

CL1 Hourly Chart Before getting to the main body of the post I want to make a point. One of the most important advantages for a non-institutional trader is the ability to step away. If markets are overly volatile, take some time off. If you feel compelled to trade, significantly reduce position size as your risk management levels will need to be widened. And,...

CMT_Association

CBOT:ZB1! First, a short story. I like simple stuff. Maybe it's just me (I don't think so) but the more complex my process becomes, the worse the trading results. In 1987, four years into my career, I used a combination of Wyckoff and Elliott to make a series of very profitable bond market calls for my institutional clients. I spent my days and nights obsessed...

CMT_Association

These data series are all available in the Trading View platform. Since the turn of the year the price of LQD, the investment grade corporate credit ETF, has declined nearly 10 points (-7.3%) and since early August is down 13 points (-10%). The important question is…. Why? Knowing how to monitor credit is an important skill, particularly since so many in the...

CMT_Association

For more detail please refer to the first four pieces in the series (linked below) and the accompanying charts. Markets entered 2022 with well established trends and trading ranges, but I believe that the coming year holds significant potential for change. This is particularly true in the equity and treasury markets. Because much of the outlook hinges on...

CMT_Association Updated 

One of the most important chart patterns is the buying and selling climax. A classic example of the pattern, in the form of a potential selling climax (S/C) is showing up in the daily and weekly charts of ARKK. Climaxes are exhaustion patterns, they develop as the last needful seller (weak hands) capitulates and hits the bid. Sellers are essentially...

CMT_Association

After reading the comments in yesterday's ARKK post I realized that I needed to clarify the post, particularly in light of what, in retrospect, was an overly enthusiastic title. I had hoped to call attention to the anatomy of an important price behavior that is important across a wide variety of assets and time frames. I also intended to highlight how I use...

CMT_Association

The NYSE composite has spent the last year building a classic broadening top pattern. The pattern develops as strong hands distribute to weak hands, and when it occurs, often marks a transition from bull to bear. 1. Broadening formations are relatively rare and because the pattern itself is difficult to trade systematically (as the boundaries are continually...

CMT_Association

As of Friday (Jan 21) IWM has fallen out of a long range of distribution, produced both daily and weekly closes outside the trading range, and importantly has the potential to produce a large move. In this piece we discuss the trading range, mostly from a Wyckoff perspective, show multiple ways to start thinking about how far the move might progress, and finally...

CMT_Association

WTI Crude Daily Chart: Thoughts on trading and a trade set up illustration: This post was written on January 18-19th but in order to avoid anyone viewing it as a trade recommendation I have withheld publication until today (1-21). It is only meant to illustrate how I think about trades and setups. The placing of entry and stop orders is complex. You need to...