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Halving cycles: so far BTC shows remarkable 4 year criticality with peak to peak duration range of 49-60 months for the last 3 cycles. The bear market (peak to bottom) usually lasts 11-13 months. Currently we are entering the final phase of the cycle if using the halving date as reference and comparing it to the previous three events. According to the model with...

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As we know the volatility index VIX is inversely correlated with the market performance – the higher the VIX, the lower the market. Currently VIX is at record lows and the question how long it could stay there is relevant to many investors. On the chart I have marked an interesting relation in the VIX - a cyclical patterns. Some of my findings: 1. Spring months...

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Since the beginning of the year FED has gradually lowered its purchases of asset backed securities - QE3. Until it ended the stimulus program on 29th of Oct. It is interesting, however, to note that the corrections following the FED announcements has been more and more limited. It should be of no surprise as FED sends several upbeat signals to markets that it is...

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The last time ADR peaked above 3.5x was followed by 11% drop by S&P500. Most recent ADR peak stood at 7.38x registered last month. That is double the 3.5x extreme level, which suggests extreme overoptimism for stocks. Usually, as history shows, it is followed by at least 10% correction. ADR proved to be extremely useful market peak spotting tool. For...

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How to spot market peaks using Advance/Decline ratio (ADR)? First, look for divergence between the market and the indicator. Rising market index accompanied with declining number of advancing stocks means upcoming drop. Second, look for high readings of the ADR. Values above 3.5-4x to be considered as significant. I've done some back testing, which showed pretty...

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Currently we are in the fifth year of latest bull market and the logical question is when the current market will end its bull run? The 2007 bear market, which still reminds of itself, finished in March 2009. Its Fibbo projection after the bull markets' fifth year (2014) is the number five in the sequence which correspond to Sept 2014. Thus according to the...

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Market peak setting (wave 5) in the cycles started 1994 and 2003 was pretty accurate. For the 1994 bull market the target was 1554.28, while the actual peak was at 1535. For the 2003 bull market the target was set to be 1561.96 while the actual was 1559. The current bull market is of most interest. The target of wave 5 was set to be 1679. However it was broken...

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Here in this post (and in the next part) I would like to show the accuracy of the target setting technique using Elliot waves and Fibo retracements. It was described in earlier posts, so here I'll make some back testing of the method. As it appears market peaks could be easily spotted by projecting waves 1 and 3. Keep in mind that there is certain error as the...

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In the post "Market prediction 2009-2014?" 17 months ago I pointed out the possibility of S&P reaching the 1650 target. As we all know the target has been surpassed. Here I update the analysis with in dept detailed wave counting and projections. How did I set this target more than year ago? The 1.618x projection of the third wave (872.81 to 1370.49) was level of...

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Timing on the markets is crucial. Many studies state that typical bull market could last up to 7 years, while the bear one up to 2 years. My observation of the last 3 market cycles confirms that. The average bull market lasted around 5 years. Using that pattern for the last bull run started March 2009 shows that we are close to the party end. Based on the Fibo...

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After yesterday earnings report the shares trade +8% after market. That, on fundamental side, is solid proof for good company performance. Moreover, on the technical side the picture is supporting that perception. Based on the seasonal pattern GOOG has just started new bull leg, which usually lasts between 3-6 months and registers gains close to 40%. Still keep...

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Over the previous debt ceiling debate the market witnessed severe correction prompted by the lowered US credit rating. The gold, usually perceived as safe haven, gained some 27% in contrast (note that the spike in gold was shorter than market correction). Currently, the renewed buzz around debt ceiling rises the question whether the gold could be winner again.

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Every investor knows the saying "Sell in May and go away". Here on the chart you can see it. The most severe corrections during the year has been the spring ones (usually April or May) and this is true for the all 5 years from 2009 up to date. On the other hand the Autumn-Winter period historically tend to be the best performing period. Keep that in mind as well. Best CH

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KO has shown pretty clear seasonal pattern over the last couple years. Usually the period at the end of the year tend to form the bottom with peak registered in the summer months July-August. Best CH

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Gold could reach 1482. The assumption is based on the fact that the price forms higher lows i.e. positive trend. Moreover, there is an investor demand as the volume during the extremely positive session on Wednesday was far bigger than average. Best CapitalHubs.com

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It is obvious that FED stimulus lifted the markets since the beginning of the financial crisis. The impact of the tapering announcements, however, brings bears on the scene, at least in short term. The corrections after previous tapering announcements for S&P500 appeared to be prolonged and severe. Currently the debate over the reducing of QE3 is expected to head...

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Recent bull rally in stock market turned many investors in party mode. Comparison with the commodities markets shows divergence between mentioned. Negative one year performance for gold and oil in contrast with the impressive 22.55% for Dow Jones rise. Usually when economy is growing commodities prices rise driven by strong demand. Here situation is a bit...

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Google's seasonal pattern suggests that the stock usually bottoms out in mid summer. As seen on the chart probably that move has already began. This chart also shows some more interesting patterns. Bull runs usually last 3 to 3.5 months and bring some 32-39% returns, while corrections are not deeper than 16-17%. Assuming the last as a support $712 (200 MA) looks...