CaptainLogik

CaptainLogik

Certainly, if a new high is made whatsoever, I would say we're going to the moon. But this last rally sucks. It was highly irregular, felt like day trader covering, and had no real commitment. If you take the last two lowest points on the long term, and you create this channel on it with the high. You get this channel and I made some subfibs also. We've already...

CaptainLogik

I think I know why Buffet sold 50% of apple. Because all the big boys will be selling key levels of this melt up so they don't get caught. Retail will keep driving price. 2 legs, possibly something like 40% each. Maybe first into Powel Fed 9/18, then a pull back, then second leg less vertical than the first, into the election EOY. And then we would get massive...

CaptainLogik

Since Nov 2023 been in a two leg trend. Half way up the second leg, and we could just continue in this sad, slow manner. However, all the small and mid cap and TESLA are ready to really step up. But we need a preliminary surge and full retracement. Like I'm long RIVIAN, but if it gets out, I'll sell all at the peak and rebuy down near my original price. But I...

CaptainLogik

Low volume, heavily divergent on weekly RSI and Volume Delta fading. We could bubble. But I don't see that in the data. No excessive excitation. Just barely squeezing over and over on nothing. Rate Cut coming later in the year. TSLA has a gap at 75 bucks. Oh what a dip buy. Would be a 3rd test of this formed channel since Oct 23. If we triple check the base and...

CaptainLogik

Volume profile cannot lie. We are needling out, there is no oxygen up here, and this rally broke through the 50% line of this range on a total abstract squeeze. So... Bears see the fatigue and they see a rate decision in June. I have a chart of the Mag 7 only, because they are the real index. It's gone parabolic. And it has a weekly candle that is a big tall...

CaptainLogik

Volume don't lie, and volume profile since this wide and tall rally began in 2020 says that this is the top. I put all Mag 7 on this chart, they are parabolic. Volume is a needle at the top, exhaustion. It appears that the Mag 7 are so big, that they have huge price search runs, and also huge failures. Look, the last trough was 55%. And no one thought the sky...

CaptainLogik Updated 

Don't listen to me, I've sucked at trading this squeeze market. And that's all we get right now. Looks like failure of key levels, then sudden reversals and surges. You can't really plan for those. Even on futures, we shoot through Vwap and keep going, often without retests. Blind trading much of the time right now. Or high risk in the least. So, I think this is...

CaptainLogik Updated 

The last major two lows generated a possible channel bottom. In Sept 23, shorts broke a major level and rushed for the break of that line for a 3rd time. Really scary. They almost got it, but then the rally happened. Now we are out of balance to the high side, and have hope we can go higher, but not before we take a soft landing, IMO. Based on the channels...

CaptainLogik

I am very multi-dimensional as a trader. 8 HR wanted to close above this blue fib line, now we come back and test it. On the short term 30 min, we're exhausting this phase, and we also started a clump during the last couple days of the week that suggests a trend competition is coming. But being that the lower trend is blocked by a major 8 Hour fib, I think we'll...

CaptainLogik

Hopefully this comes up correctly. I made a Mag 7 chart so ignore the price. Just using the weekly to estimate direction on day trades. Kind of best indicator I've used so far in this stupid moment we are in. I think we missed my 23% line, and may have broke the shorts too soon. I think it wants to revisit that line, accumulate and then go forever. Being that...

CaptainLogik

Can't believe how resistant the market is to falling, but it ain't healthy. One last run and then I think we'll complete the shoulder of a potential head and shoulders. One hell of a fast rally after February next year if this is all accurate. I don't think value has any connection to reality anymore. Maybe it won't for many years as we build a top outside and...

CaptainLogik

We wantzes the trend line. We must have itzs. Everything everywhere on small caps feel bottomed out. Time for a price exploration to the top side. I think we'll have one really dramatic plunge which will also indicate the SPX is exhausting to the down side. I believe a standard fib extension scenario is playing out and ends above 8400 or so. We've come half back...

CaptainLogik

I believe price action will suggest a zig zag all next year, but it's only building the next point of control before a two leg Wyckoff finish into the next few years. This is my projection based on fib channels. My red channel is a bear counter narrative. Think about how you may take a rally and make a down channel based on the lower high to determine pull back...

CaptainLogik

In some ways, the bulls have already won. But having a contract change over lead to a 50+ point gap between the actual SPX and the SPX futures is stunning. I mean, wow. How does one trade this? You DO NOT. I have lost enough money this week. I have drawn in our problems. 1st, From the last fib (which we gapped up onto) I have dropped in the volume profile. The...

CaptainLogik

I am committed to these fibs. And we need another 2% draw down before we catch support. But once we do, I think it's a straight shot to the next white fib on my chart. A little over commitment to the downside to get shorts thinking they will prevent the bubble, then a fast and hard turn.

CaptainLogik

So, what I was and am expecting is an accumulation zone down at the key fib we gapped over awhile ago. However, this morning is kinda bullish and made a new daily high. Should have gone down overnight into morning trading. This thing may be so bullish the squeeze will be now. I am not trading until I see some confirmation of a break of the pattern that should have...

CaptainLogik Updated 

Starting to see buyers and a base. I am thinking this next two weeks ending of August 2023 we will build support on my white fib, which is only a 23% level in this range. But, if it can bull flag here, next stop would be the 61.8% of this theoretical fib extension channel and that's way up there around 7100. I don't think we will revisit the current short term...

CaptainLogik Updated 

I remain committed to my top in a few years, but boy do we not know how this thing will go. It's getting thin on volume up here and slippage is always possible. I could totally see a COVID like slip and fast bounce to my targets, That would be one hell of a historic bull buy on that falling knife. I don't like that we burst through the second to last red bear fib...