CaptainLogik

CaptainLogik

We need a major bubble through 2026 to bring the price balance into overkill territory. In doing so, we will have a 60% retraction over the years following, but the bottom will have more stability, almost exactly at our current prices. A bubble. Ending in 2028. And it will then have the 200 MA on the monthly to balance on. If we don't go up first, the fall risks...

CaptainLogik

Why is the market so quiet? Because it's about to splode all over. We have been in a bull channel since 1939. Only twice did we reach the top of the channel. The second time was the all time high. We did not touch the channel and run away. We spent months above it, invalidating it. Now we have a pull back, and now we have a massive run coming to shatter the old...

CaptainLogik Updated 

Oh baby. Will we or won't we. There is no in-between. Peak capitalism by 2026. 100 years of bull markets. Followed by pure chaos. Or not... Or maybe? It could. You are right. But no. But Yes. Let's all just get a beer and stop thinking about it.

CaptainLogik Updated 

Money go up until volume is so thin on profile it looks like an ice pick. Too many small cap were oversold. ARKK fund is going to 140 before it turns over. Sure, it will get cut back in half, but this squeeze is probably the largest in recent memory. And then we'll have a couple more squeezes after that because big shorts will be scared to re-enter, so they will...

CaptainLogik

The all time high we hit last year was also the top of the working channel we've been using since 1926. Process that. Okay, so the issue is, we didn't just tap the top of the channel and pull away. We spent weeks above it. Toiling over it. This, too me, suggests a weak and vulnerable top. And the volume up there did not exhaust to a tip, so we also had a poor high...

CaptainLogik Updated 

Drag up the 100/200 MA so when you fall you have support on the golden magic hypothetical 50% line of all time on tech. I think we'll run through November after this, then take another down turn. Kind of a head/shoulders, but I think either it will do that into 2026 or it will take off from the top of the last shoulder and go on two epic legs to complete this huge...

CaptainLogik Updated 

Yeah, um, blow off top. 12% by April 10th. I bet that monday is the high of the week and the rest is down down down to QQQ 303, bottom of previous volume zone. But I think a buy there will be a long hold through end of year if you want. I'm all in on this 12% gap and go.

CaptainLogik Updated 

If you aren't long today, in anticipation of NQ breaking past 12833.00 (futures) 38% retracement level to the all time high, then I feel sorry for you. Because that implies you are short, and you will be one of the people that helps my positions 30% by next week. IF my channel is accurate, the covering will generate a 50% line at quite a level. But this makes...

CaptainLogik Updated 

As a futures trader, I'm always looking at the indices for my overall targets and narrative, but then I look at the fibs and fib extensions to determine trading targets on futures. What I believe happened today was a bull rally to lift price high enough to ABSORB a fed rate hike. I think the .25 hike will come, the reaction to this will be a day trade selloff, but...

CaptainLogik

I can't understand how or why... but will it? Does this channel matter? Even the lower channel I made had a top at the same exact fib level as my 61.8% on this channel, so I figured I'd get more long term and assume we are not approaching a top, but a middle. And it worked even better on the monthly. It's all just games until it happens. I'd like to see this top...

CaptainLogik

Oops. Here's my theoretical QQQ channel I believe we are building based on prior performance and volume areas.

CaptainLogik

Critical juncture approaching. I think we're already breaking out for the rest of the year but timing is everything. I think one more down attempt before the first major short covering tomorrow, friday. Check my QQQ for context. If you trade short term, don't hold anything overnight just yet.

CaptainLogik

Here comes the first thrust. 3/25 11 am, in for many futures right before the covering! Why does it always have to wait until after 11.

CaptainLogik

Expecting (as is more common on a H&S setup) one last major deep push to finish this week or next week, with violent reversal. The volatility is wild, yeah? But today should not have broken the 3954 ish level, if it was going to keep using it as support on the mid term point of control. Not seeing any covering. I'd expect one last run down. Stocks like rivian are...

CaptainLogik

I would argue today's daily close is the proper but hypothetical horizontal 50% fib line, which if confirmed, supports the next target. Like, 25-30% higher. Wowza. If we slip below this line in the sand, I have a feeling we're all terribly screwed. But if we rally off this line, and it is in fact the 50% line, then that means the market could see that other 50%...

CaptainLogik

Tech stocks are fighting for the long term purple average / support line and completing an exploratory channel top. This channel may not be ultimate truth, but I had a different channel projection before and this one really fits now with this bottom we established. We are likely on our way to the head of the pattern. The bottom provides the angle of attack. I...

CaptainLogik

Market Internals suggest we are in balance at this point. I believe that since nasdaq launched, a new base for a new longer term channel was caught the SPX. The purple line is the overall trend line the market has followed (again, IMO) since 1997. But that trend line can't be used forever. And I think we're about to see covering on low volume lead to a blow off...

CaptainLogik

Forget the news. Look at the volume profile since we bounced in COVID. Poor top should mean a retest. Corporate buybacks continue from greedy profits. We haven't reached peak BS I don't believe.