CaptainLogik

CaptainLogik

I'm really curious if this week will just flush down to begin this typical bottoming pattern. It was very stuck on Monday, and gave a sign like it was looking off the edge of something but not stepping forward. The real volatility could be just about to jump into the half pipe. My projections change because as the picture evolves, it gives a clearer picture. I'm...

CaptainLogik

Man, Rivian deserves to sit lower than this based on financials and returns, but if this market has one more long leg in it to exhaustion of overbullish idiots, well, then this is the path.

CaptainLogik

All fibs are not behaving in an edge to edge manner. Price action was really confusing until I took the fibs away from the wicks and redefined based on all price action on the way down. Now we have a 100% retracement target that matches medium term channel. It's messy, but the buying in the dips is crazy.

CaptainLogik

Fib channel projection is an estimate, but it's based on all the key trend lines and levels that were tested on the way down. Safe investing in anything would wait for the spike and the pull back into April or May for buying. Purchasing the next dip is a "catching the knife" scenario. However, Rivian is showing a strong accumulation. The final push will be...

CaptainLogik

I think we've already started the accumulation phase of a market turn. I think this COULD in theory lead to a second leg similar to the one that started in the middle of 2020. I still think we're in a large Wyckoff Cycle, and we're about to have buyers drive price toward 6000 before a 45% failure. Then just trade up and down in that same crown top, typical of this...

CaptainLogik

Based on Price action and market generated data, it looks like the indexes are actually in a much larger long term pattern than realized. By March 7th we should know more. But we could be setting up for an identical leg to the last year and a half, then failure back to current prices.

CaptainLogik Updated 

Incredible Bullishness on Tuesday, but the run is flawed and fragile, and losing volume. Unclear if this week will peak out and then fall, or if that comes on Monday, but I'm planning SQQQ when SPY hits 464.00 area. I think it may gap up there tonight and open and then just flush down, because that's the volatility we are in.

CaptainLogik

IF and only if we do fall, we'll revisit some key levels, rebound and eventually settle in the lower channel, which had weak fib checks and poor retests of it's 50% line.

CaptainLogik

Market is competeing between short term up and down channels. Large sudden moves to change sides occur in these cycles. Thesis today is that we get a really massive jump to the other side, based on old Point of Control on volume that went untested when we spiked down before. It will fail to hold, because this is being driven by dumb money. The smart money will...

CaptainLogik

Horizontal fib sets up the final level, based on that, I draw out a possible up channel. Today, the rally exactly got stopped by one of those red fib channel lines, confirming relevance further. I suggest final low price is then 20.44 and anything under 21 is a dip buy for a run to at least 80-120. I'd guess the top of red channel is the sell point. I do not...

CaptainLogik Updated 

Tesla and the NASDAQ are in a massive Wyckoff Distribution (selling) cycle. If we complete the next 14% down, the dip buys will be absolutely epic, but you can't hold more than a couple months. And you can't hope to trade the inside of the range. It will be pure chaos. You can short the top, and long the bottoms confidently.