CarpeMomentum

CarpeMomentum

Introduction Bitcoin’s price history demonstrates recurring patterns of parabolic growth followed by corrections, a phenomenon tied to its market cycles. By applying Fibonacci retracement and extension tools, we can analyze these movements and project potential future trends. This chart uses Fibonacci extensions on a logarithmic scale to analyze Bitcoin’s price...

CarpeMomentum

The blue line area shows the historic and current FED's Fund Rate. Looking back in the past it appears the US10Y (yellow line) is predictive of FED's fund rate upper target (orange arrows). The US3M (turquoise line) seems to be a good indicator to get a feeling for the FED's fund rate short-term up or downward trend. In the FOMC Summary of Economic Projections...

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Looking back the the last three cycle bottoms (assuming we had put in our all-time-low recently) it appear the MACD is showing a repeating cycle pattern. Crossing down into the ATH then flashing a false bullish signal only to then cross up over and initiating a bullish period. However the all-time-low seems to get retested so a second possible entry point to buy...

CarpeMomentum

Treasuries are an intersting play right now. Depending on your home currencies it still might be a good moment to consider stocking up on them in your portfolio. Couple of notes looking at the chart. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate was shown to be around 4% (per June...

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The U.S. Dollar Index is used to measure the value of the dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies: the euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona. The index was established shortly after the Bretton Woods Agreement dissolved in 1973 with a base of 100, and values since then are relative to this base. The value of...

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The ISM manufacturing index or purchasing managers' index is considered a key indicator of the state of the U.S. economy. It indicates the level of demand for products by measuring the amount of ordering activity at the nation's factories. The PMI number, which is announced on the first business day of each month, can greatly influence investor and business...

CarpeMomentum Updated 

A lot of speculation and expectation around the FED raising the fund rate today and it's impact on Bitcoin's price. If you compare the fund rate and Bitcoin's price you notice there is no clear long-term correlation. I would aruge if anything then the more interesting comparison would be to compare Bitcoin (BTC) to the M2 money supply. Endless money creation...

CarpeMomentum Updated 

Revisiting my log growth channel analysis and adjusting for a longer cycle the initial estimate for a $250k still seems very much possible. As we can see Bitcoin is trending at the lower log channel and would appear to be ready to sprint upwards again. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- **...

CarpeMomentum Updated 

Bitcoin has been test and retesting the rising support line build ever since Jul 2019. Yesterday we tested this support line yet again. Keep in mind both on the weekly and the daily we are in a triangle that screams for a change of trend. I would argue we will see the long expected trend reversal upwards. There is currently no new news in the market and...

CarpeMomentum

I wanted to create a view to hightlight correlation and Bitcoin (BTC) with the stock market (here the S&P500). This chart has many areas of interest. It shows Bitcoin can be completely detached from the stock market (as it runs it somewhat independent cycles). It also show Bitcoin can be indicating a stock market top. We only have one recesssion to observe...

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Looking at historic recession losses of the S&P 500 and given the current market conditions pointing to a recession one has can derive more downward movement for the stock market. Looking at the S&P 500 there is still a lot of room downwards to an overall 20-40% correction down into the recession from the last...

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Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio is a golden standard to evaluate the stock market Looking at the Shiller S&P 500 P/E Ratio we can clearly see the market was overvalued and is now in the beginning of a correction down. I expect this trend to continue downwards and then have the usual reflexive rebound from oversold conditions and then tripple waterfall down (the final...

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I wanted to show a view on the state of the altcoins again. Well simply put it looks bullish. We have been tracking inside an ascending triangle and an break out upwards seems imminent. To be fair I also traced a possible downward scenario. Given how Bitcoin seems also to be tracking low and oversold with plenty of buyers on the downside, the market seems to wait...

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A longer term look at the US 30 Year Bonds reveals that the yields have broken to the upside of 2 standard deviation of the linear regression channel. In a way bonds have already executed the FED rate hikes. You can get around 3% yield on a US 30 year bond. Question is if the bond market will track lower increasing yield rates even further. Depending on your...

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I have created this chart based on analytical ideas of Raoul Pal. The idea of this chart is to show that we can expect a decline in gross domestic product (GDP), based on looking at the rail car freight decline. We have seen one of the sharpest declines in rail car freight. On top the leading indicator for the GDP the ISM (from the Institute for Supply Management)...

CarpeMomentum Updated 

We are living in very uncertain times. I wanted to provide a couple of view in order to understand the current market situation better and determine a strategy going forward. So I have created a US consumer price indes YOY% chart. We have not seen such high interest rates since the 1970s when demographics created a demand shock and oil embargos and Iran crisis...

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The 2/10 treasury yield spread is approaching an inversion. All of the previous yield curve inversions were associated with catastrophic event many of which stemming out of a fiat monetary system that seems very obviously to be failing. We are seeing the failing fiat monetary system if we look at the amount of money being created out of thin air by the FED (and...

CarpeMomentum

Looking at a linear regression channel it appears Bitcoin is getting oversold at the lower 2 standard deviation band. It should easily find support at $36.5 - $37k the ranges it is now if it will trend lower. Charting a potential upward trend in a ghost feed for illustration...