Historically, a cross over 5.5% unemployment, negative MoM % US Industrial Production, and the cross over of a 49.8 PMI renders a 97.1% probability of recession
Each time the US Industrial Production % drops below zero, the United States has entered a recession. A downward trend in US industrial production, currently, may result in a recessive state.
Each time the US Industrial Production % drops below zero, the United States has entered a recession. A downward trend in US industrial production, currently, may result in a recessive state.
The ISM index and unemployment growth rates show negative correlation while ISM shows positive with monthly Shiller P/E10 Ratios across S&P 500. Why would price multiples on equities rise if manufacturing doesn't rise, if GDP growth doesn't rise? Deviation of ISM and P/E10 trendline signals point in credit cycle and overvalued equity.
