Fundamentals: Is the worst over?
1) Revenue: 70% from China. Chinese gov is determined to support its economy, launching a fresh set of stimulus earlier this week. Trump 2.0 tariffs may spur the chinese government to improve more on manufacturing capabilities and equipment turnover, and ISDN is likely to benefit.
2) Semicon (SEA): ISDN suffered for past 3 years...
We will have an upcoming 1H results in August.
Here's my analysis. I believe 1H will be good, based on the following:
1. 1H historically always do better than 2H, except 2021 but that’s because of property sales proceeds in Q3.
2. 3 hydros running full steam compared to 1H 2023.
3. semicon has bottomed off and should be better than 2H 2023, which itself...
Fundamental and technical reasons align. With the announcement of plan-of-record from big customer on the 3rd April, management may upgrade guidance soon. The base risk price is $2.3 fundamentally, and with semicon recovery in sights, this may get an upgrade soon.
ISDN just released its full year, though numbers are disappointing, the company mentioned that they had been re-investing heavily during down time to capture market share. With yuan bottoming, semicon seeing a pick up in 2H 2024, and Chinese advanced manufacturing boom for the foreseeable future, I expect a stella FY 2024 from low base of FY 2023.
Technical...
