Cherry94

Cherry94

+Tariffs: tariffs on Canada are confirmed and upcoming soon, new 10% tariffs on China ~+BoJ rhetoric is more hawkish ~- JPY COT is bearish - Fresh good CAD ec. data (not so crucial for a very short-term trade)

Cherry94

+ECB rhetoric : "more cuts in the pipeline" +Bearish eur seasonality after federal elections -COT: bullish EUR

Cherry94

+Ukraine peace talk positive sentiment -Tariff risks

Cherry94

+Expected bullish USD month-end flows; investment curbs on China +Seasonality -COT

Cherry94 Updated 

+CPI Data +Ukraine/Russia peace talks -Tariffs risks -Seasonality

Cherry94

+CPI news failure +Seasonality +Uncertainty around tariffs -COT bearish

Cherry94

+Potential tariffs are more threatening to EU than NZ. +Seasonality +Decent chance of not cutting by RBNZ -A lot of bad news already priced in for the euro

Cherry94

+Potential tariffs are more threatening to EU than NZ. +Seasonality +Decent chance of not cutting by RBNZ -A lot of bad news already priced in for the euro

Cherry94

+euro is expected to be more affected by tariffs than the pound +seasonality -The euro has already priced in many bad news *mixed data

Cherry94

+25% Tariffs implemented -USD is overbought (COT) -Weak follow-through -Risk of further agreements *took smaller size (0.2%)

Cherry94

+Colombia repatriation +Bad CN data +Seasonality -USD COT Bearish -Monday Hold until 30.01.2025

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment HK50: - Weak recent Chinese data - Stimulus hasn't met investors high expectations USD: - Strong data - Fed signals a likely slowdown in the pace of rate cuts Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: DMA(100) Stop loss: 1% Position size: 0.5 of the normal...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment CN50A: - PBOC has officially ramped up support for the stock market, relending facility launched - Couldn't hold lower after bad Industrial profits release USD: - De-escalation sentiment after the attack on Iran Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Sideways Long-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - The pair didn't hold lower after the negative CPI this week - Strong Retail Sales today - There's still a miniscule chance that the rate will be unchanged - Biggest carry currency USD: - Shrugged off good US data yesterday Technical & Other - Entered 3m after the Retail Sales release - Failed breakout below 1.3 on D Setup:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - Recent economic data has been bullish, driving the euro up GBP: - Raised taxes - bearish in the short-term for the pound - Recent bearish economic data Technical & Other Expectations - after such a runup, the technical area is good for taking profits, especially before NFP on the same day and the US Elections next week. ...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment HK50: - Swap program aimed at supporting the stock market - NBS PMIs Beat USD: - Risks: Upcoming Elections Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 15m Medium-term: Range Long-term: Up Min target: Local high Stop loss: 0.68% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - COT - Recent ec.data (GDP, CPI) USD: - Risks: pre-election swings Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: 168.0 Stop loss: 0.22% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - COT - S&P PMI Miss USD: - Ec. data (esp. JOLTS) - Seasonality, pre-elections Technical & Other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min target: Local low Stop loss: 0.18% Position size: 0.5 of the normal Risk Unit