Technical picture I see resistance area (orange rectangle) and price action confirmed by candlestick set up (dark cloud cover). Also general trend is down that adds confidence to short position. Also if to look at the stochastic (14 3 3) on H4, overbought condition can be observed. Fundamental picture As Eurozone still stays anxious about Greece problems and on...
1)Resistance area is obviously seen and has been retested several times (marked in green) + opening position as a trend continuation. 2)Commodity prices keep on pressing on Australian economy, there is no benefits for strengthening AUD in near future, and NZ look quite relatively good to all majors.