Cherry94

Cherry94

US100 - Some companies reported lower earnings USD - Dollar Smile Theory - Lasting effect of last week labor data miss Technical & Other - The broad sentiment is still fear as VIX is high Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Sideways Min target: Local lows Risk: 1.56%

Cherry94

Fundamentals & Sentiment US100: - BoJ wouldn't raise rates when the markets are unstable - Some strength from the tech sector USD - N/A Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Range Min target: DMA(10), Aug 1 highs Risk: 0.82%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment CN50A: - The general narrative: China is struggling to recover, thus Chinese Indices fell behind the rest of the world during the recovery - Balance of trade is down USD - Fed officials tried to calm the markets, Dollar Smile Theory Technical & Other -Risk recovery has been exhausting and CN50A was behind all other indices Setup:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - Overbought for a while according to CFTC and other Internals NZD - Strength shifts from Aussie to Kiwi according to Internals - Australia released weaker CPI, speeding up the flow out of the AUD to the alternative - NZD. Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: - EZ GDP and DE CPI up Cons: no immediate reaction from euro CHF: - The area of SNB being interested in intervention to weaken franc. - GS forecast a weaker franc Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: local highs Risk: 0.15%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment Nikkei: - BOJ is likely to leave rates unchanged (as of now data doesn't support a hike) - Nikkei follows the recovery of US indices on Fri USD; JPY: - USD data is mixed + Fed blackout - JPY looks overvalued (Internals point to the upcoming weakness in yen) Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment NDX: - Tesla disappoints; Google EPS Beat, but the slowdown in advertising (NDX 8.2%, SPX 4.3%); tech sector is weak USD: Fundamentals & Sentiment - PMIs: Serv. up (although Mfg down) - Latest CPI printed down Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: ~3:1; DMA(100) Risk: 1.17%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment GBP: - Services Inflation is at 5.7% (BoE exp. 5.1%; the BoE watches the metric) Cons: GBP is stretched to the upside according to CFTC USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders - Disinflation overall Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders SPX500: - Pre-election debates: seasonals are skewed to the upside - General resistance of stocks lately Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 1hh Trigger: 15m Medium-term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: local highs Risk: 0.47%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders - Expectations of lower NFP number tomorrow SPX500: - Nvidia leads, AI theme - Pre-election debates: seasonals are skewed to the upside - General resistance of stocks lately Technical & Other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Weak Services PMI, Employment, Factory Orders - Expectations of lower NFP number tomorrow - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see AUD: - Policy meeting: "Policymakers stressed the need to remain vigilant about upside risks to inflation, adding that a material rise in prices could require significantly higher rates." - Interest...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode - Recent US data has been weak (except JOLTS) - Services PMI is expected to come out weak today XAU: - both USD and XAU are stretched to the upside Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Range Long-term: Range Min target: local highs Risk: 0.84%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment JPN225: - Final data showed that business activity in Japan turned contractionary in June for the first time since November. Technology stocks led the advance, triggering the index to pop higher. The tech sector is the third by weight in Nikkei (~15%). USD: - The Fed is still in "wait and see" mode - Recent US data has been weak...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - "Wait and see" stance of the Fed - Few positive data triggers CNH: - Not enough positive hard data to support China recovery narrative - PBoC is ok with some depreciation of Yuan as long as it's gradual. Technical & Other Setup: TCB) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium term: Sideways Long-term: Down Min target: Risk: 0.28%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment NZD: - Overbought according to CFTC EUR: - Market internals - CFTC - Euro has been holding despite the looming elections in France Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium term: Sideways Long-term: Down Min target: 1.785 / DMA(100) Risk: 0.43%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment SEK: Dovish rhetoric from the regulator: 3 cuts this year instead of 2 EUR: - Market internals - CFTC - Euro has been holding despite the looming elections in France Technical & Other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 4h Medium term: Sideways Long-term: Down Min target: Risk: 0.28%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - PMI is expected higher - Risk reversals GBP: - CFTC Overbought locally Technical & Other Setup: S(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Down Long-term: Up Min target: local lows Risk: 0.2%

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: - Fed's stance is stable: wait and see SPX500: - Nvidia leads, AI theme - Pre-election debates: seasonals are skewed to the upside - General resistance of stocks lately Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium term: Up Long-term: Up Min target: 3:1 Risk: 0.28%