Cherry94

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment ChinaA50: The pop higher yesterday didn't have any viable reason behind it. The data came out mixed. Technical & Other Followed the price action trigger to guess how the market interpreted the data. USD: The trade is meant to be very short-term, while USD paired with index shouldn't be that sensitive to forex volatility. Hence, the...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment WTI: In general, there are global drivers for oil demand, amongst them is supply curbs from OPEC. More recently geopolitical risks in Middle east create bias for oil upside. USD: The dollar has been overbought according to CFTC reports. The risk of BoJ intervention is still there, so it's better not buy dollars anyhow as long as USDJPY...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment AUD: Australia has beaten its neighbor in terms of robustness of the economy, with Services PMI and Avg Cash Earnings sustaining upward momentum best. Such economic performance also translated into better GDP QoQ growth paving the way for AUD to outperform NZD for the last 2 months and propelling the pair higher. It's also vividly...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: Contrary to the direction of this trade idea, the Eurozone economy has been doing quite well for the last few months. However, is it time for a technical correction? Risk reversals suggest that. NZD: Kiwi has been supported by good Building Permits from New Zealand and strong readings from Australia at the beginning of the...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment EUR: There was a lower than consensus Inflation data and a bad Unemployment print. I use these as triggers for a short-term momentum trade. CAD: Canadian economy is doing better than EU based on the main economic indicators. CAD is undervalued based on a few market internals (not EURCAD pairs though) Technical & Other Setup:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals This is the second attempt to take advantage of the medium-term expected strength in AUD and dovish stance of SNB. The weak home sales data from the US can be a trigger for further risk-on upside momentum. Technical & Other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 1h Trigger: 1h Risk: 0.26% Entry: buy stop

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment USD: The sentiment has been bullish in the short-term as market is leaning towards 2 cuts instead of 3 from the Fed this year. The trigger to buy dollar is a solid beat in ISM Mfg PMI. GBP: Pound is overextended according to CFTC reports, while the UK fundaments hasn't really been backing such a growth - take a sluggish GDP for...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals & Sentiment The outlooks of SNB and RBA go in opposite directions, with SNB staying one of the most regulators and RBA not considering cutting rates until August. On the triggers side, we've got strong employment data from Australia today. From the other side, the SNB has cut the interest rate, while the market expected Hold with 63% odds. Finally,...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals USD: Light volume during the pre-Thanksgiving trading day - any weak US data can potentially move the market. The miss on Manufacturing PMI triggered a short-term bearish sentiment, another excuse to follow the narrative that the Fed is done hiking rates. EUR: Although the economic data wasn't so appealing, I stick with the strong EUR seasonals (EUR...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals GBP: Dovish outlook (Market is pricing BoE to cut rates in June 2024. The pound is also overpriced based on its yield differenial. Although the currency is quite stretched to the downside in the COT report, there's still some room to decline. JPY: BOJ is currently the most hawkish central bank. JPY is testing lows in COT report, so some rebound is...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamental USD: Yesterday's weak US CPI data provided a strong foundation for shorting US dollar, as the miss in inflation reaffirms the dovish view of the Fed. The expectations of todays labor data (more jobless claims) keeps the sentiment bearish for the USD. The seasonals suggest USD weakness. CAD: Loonie slumped due to big inventories yesterday. I believe...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals EUR: Today Germany posted weak Trade Balance data, so the sentiment is bearish. GBP: Although the rate hike cycle is looming, BoE is probably the only bank that still aims to hike rates. The market is pricing over a 90% chance of raising rates at the next meeting. Technical & other Setup: TC(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD The slowdown of the Chinese economy drags down Australia which heavily exports to China, thus bearish sentiments in the AUD. Today economic data on China is mixed: even though there were some improvements in Manufacturing PMI, the markets couldn't hold gains in the next few hours. Such minor improvements are just a drop in the sea of current...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD: Economic slowdown in China and issues in the real estate sector drag risk assets in the region down, including Australian ones. USD: "Higher rates for longer narrative" Technical & other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term: Down Min target: Aug lows Risk: 0.36%; 2 parts: 1st one - sell limit

Cherry94

Fundamentals USD: The US data and Fed's rhetoric hints the US hiking cycle is near the top. CAD: Opec oil cuts along with a few other factors provide bullish bias for oil. Technical & other Setup: TC(RTF) Setup timeframe: D Trigger: 4h Medium-term: Up Long-term: Down Min target: DMA(50) Risk: 0.5R

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals USD: The market sentiment changed, with declining US inflation and Fed's rhetoric of an approaching end of the hiking cycle. Thus, USD declined significantly and likely became overcrowded with bears. JPY: Ueda's remarks - he doesn't sound like he's going to change YCC soon. Technical & other Setup: TR(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals EUR: Hawkish rhetoric from the ECB and rates pricing in a 95% chance of raising rates is an appropriate sentiment environment for the short-term long. USD: Lower than expected inflation release yesterday can be a trigger for the euro surge in the short-term. Technical & other Setup: S(B) Setup timeframe: 4h Trigger: 1h Medium-term: Down Long-term:...

Cherry94 Updated 

Fundamentals AUD: Recent hike and expectations of further hikes to tame inflation, recent hawkish comments of Lowe. NZD: Although RBNZ hiked the rate, the bank declared it's the last hike in the cycle - NZD should be weak on dovish expectations for a while. Technicals & other TC(B) Medium term: Up Long term: Range Min. Target: Channel boundary + next technical level