ChiefMacro

ChiefMacro

Looks like the moment of truth for Mickey & Co. I have been covering this one for a long time, with numerous mentions that Disney is a sell / short. How low this thing will go, we do not know. Right now I am comfortable saying, -50% is probable. While there are many factors in play, the broader economy is weak and Disney has done nothing but push people away...

ChiefMacro

Back on June 10th I published NYSE:CVNA short. Still looking for the short, but wanted to provide a cleaner picture. We are closer to the break and the economic headwinds are getting stronger. Car vending machines, huh?

ChiefMacro

Last week, on the television show "Good Morning America", they ran a segment about "the economy". During this segment, the Disney-owned (short Disney) "news outlet", reported the unemployment rate is 3.7%. ... ...... ............ the unemployment rate is currently 4%. No big deal you say? Well, I disagree. Namely because: 1. They're wrong, 2. finding out the...

ChiefMacro

I first identified the Tesla short in April 2022 (linked to this post). Since then we have seen a -75% selloff, followed by a ferocious BAILOUT in January 2023, only to be left for dead at -55% from ATH. Although the Elon-EV cult remains in utter denial, the facts are the facts. Electric vehicles, car vending machines, "the future", robots, aliens, crypto...

ChiefMacro

I may return to this to add some additional insight / commentary. Short Carvana. The rupturing of the “Yellowstone Bubble” will not be kind to “car vending machines”

ChiefMacro

On Thursday, May 16th, I was sipping coffee and watching The Today Show , when a guest appeared on the program to talk about how much money YOU are supposedly making in your 401(k). Oddly enough the commentator - who was identified as the "chief business correspondent for CNN" - then reminded viewers that "you really should only look at your 401(k) once or twice...

ChiefMacro

The purpose of this chart is to show how retirement funds are drained once returns reach 20%. The reason this happens is because the purpose of the 401(k) is to prevent working people from ever reaching anything that resembles financial independence. From the time we begin our careers to the time that we reach retirement age, we are CONSTANTLY told that if we do...

ChiefMacro

Here is a list of all the ridiculous nonsense narrative that the the "pros" and media pump: First they say: “Nobody knows what will happen” Followed by the clown talk: "Buy the dip" 🤡 🤡 🤡 "LFG" "Santa rally" 🤡 🤡 🤡 "The tortoise and the hare" "V-bottom recovery" "Focus on the long term" "It’s priced in" 🤡 🤡 🤡 "Stay invested" 🤡 🤡 🤡 "Transitory inflation" 🤡 🤡...

ChiefMacro

Boys and girls, we are witnessing a level of fraud that makes Gamestop look like a good idea. Nothing has changed, I first published the bitcoin short on October 15th, 2021... The outlook for "crypto currency" remains highly unfavorable. Something to acknowledge: Since it's birth, following the great financial crisis in 2009, crypto has survived a lot of wild...

ChiefMacro

Classic short setup for CSX railroad here. It just so happens other railroads are also showing bearish formations with imminent resolution - most likely to the downside - ahead. Remember: we are at 3.6% unemployment - a rate that has remained historically unsustainable, and elusive if not unattainable - for the last 75 years. Combining the "large-time-frame"...

ChiefMacro

The indicators of economic distress are vast. Sometimes I don't know what to post, but you have to post something to trick the little AI bot police. Anyway, lately things have been feeling a lot like the summer / autumn of 2008. Rampant fomo everywhere, but you can tell the market is getting tired, after a ridiculous full-employment rally. So now, we have CAT...

ChiefMacro

The civilian unemployment rate ( labor market )appears to have not only bottomed (multiple double bottoms), but it seems to have bottomed in an area that is historically unsustainable . I encourage all market enthusiasts to think back over the past several years, as bots and social media "experts" were pumping crypto and tesla while at all time highs, only to be...

ChiefMacro

The US unemployment rate can double from here and still be within the long-term range and still below the extremes that have occurred during more recent recessions. Also worth point out that the only time we have been below this level of unemployment (higher employment) was during the Korean war in the early 1950s. Sure, we could see the rate of employment...

ChiefMacro

I have been suspect of the Tesla recovery that took place from January 2023 - February 2023. I get it, we "bounced" after a 65% collapse (which we properly identified in May 2022 - attached to this summary), but a 100%+ recovery over the course of 6 weeks is an incredible "breadth" for such a short amount of time and what is a relatively large market cap....

ChiefMacro

All four of these charts represent not only their own value, relative to the dollar - but also the general health of their local economies. So what are we looking at? Upon closer examination, we can see identical bearish price action in all four charts. As such, we can assume that bearish price action (weak demand) among these asset classes, is implicit of some...

ChiefMacro

"Price is what you pay, value is what you get." - Warren Buffett

ChiefMacro

I can't help but wonder if the software company-turned-covid-smash-hit, is maybe somehow exposed to the "banking crisis". Commodities also continue to show weakness. So if housing is a commodity... well who knows...? Anyway, the fed is set to make their "decision" on rates in a couple of days. On that note, I understand the temptation to lean into the idea that...

ChiefMacro

I want to be careful not to pile on amid the selloff that has taken place in the last couple trading sessions. The point here is that bank stocks look unhealthy overall. I am looking at banks to continue to selloff, until otherwise noted. Be careful! Short the rip!