ChiefMacro

ChiefMacro

Taking a risk here with USDCAD to the long side, as it looks like a great risk-reward setup. This trade implies some a bias to the downside in oil. As previous posts will confirm, I have been bullish on oil; however - the recent failed move at $109, represents the second lower-high within a bearish structure. As such, I am comfortable with the expectation that...

ChiefMacro

My bias for crypto remains to the short side. Normally I don't look at charts with such a dramatic orientation; however, if there is a chance at all that this orientation is later validated as THE top, that would be enough for me to remain short. Right now, bitcoin is barely hanging on in what is a fairly textbook bear-flag. Be well!

ChiefMacro

Looks like there is such a thing as bad publicity. $DIS barely hanging on. I think anything above $150.00 is a fairly safe place to short the Disney stock. While I have not entered a short position yet, I am considering it and I will update this chart when I do it. How deep? I think this thing can easily lose another 50% - 60%. We will watch ! God Bless!

ChiefMacro

Bought USDCNH. This position is consistent with my bullish $USD thesis. Chart shows it is a good risk-reward. Macro backdrop supports it. God Bless! Chief

ChiefMacro

I mentioned recently on twitter that I am long USDJPY. Not much to say about the dollar, other than it looks like it wants to break out to the upside. Additionally, the macroeconomic tailwinds support a bullish dollar thesis in a couple of ways: 1. The Federal Reserve has been very transparent about their intention to continue to raise interest rates through...

ChiefMacro

USDJPY looks to be on fire. I am long and looking to test the $145.00 area.

ChiefMacro

Looking for oil to turn around here and quickly test $120. We have a bullish wedge at the bottom of an uptrend. Definitely a key area and also coming into the quarterly moving average - which - as of now, also remains on a northeastern trajectory. Weird times. God bless!

ChiefMacro

Consistent with my overall view of Bitcoin (short), and as previously mentioned - this chart shows a bear-flag in the performance of BTC relative to the Nasdaq. In previous posts, I had noted we could expect BTC to underperform NDX. What this suggests is that Bitcoin remains weak and getting progressively weaker. Let's see how it plays out. God Bless.

ChiefMacro

Been a bit since I posted. Anyway just wanted to take a moment to look in on the Nasdaq. While we did not get move up previously drawn, we do have a fully formed bull flag bouncing off the top of a 12-Year structure. Let's see if it re-enters the red structure. God bless you all. #PrayForUkraine

ChiefMacro

Looks like a legit new(er) post-covid structure and testing (disrespecting) the top of a 12-Year bull run for a second time. A break above All-Time-Highs (just over 4,800) would be very attractive as an opportunity to add. I think at the very least, we test ATH. Target for now is 4,800; then cruising altitude! God Bless, Chief

ChiefMacro

Bitcoin meeting what appears to be major technical resistance at $39K. Make no mistake, this could break out to the upside in a squeeze type of fashion. If you trade it long in this set up - a case for which there is technical evidence - I would suggest conservative profit taking. My overall view remains short for now, but it is at a KEY AREA! God Bless

ChiefMacro

This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well. Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still...

ChiefMacro

Probably a few different ways to analyze the GameStop chart. All indicate a complete collapse. It will be relentless and ugly (already is quite frankly). Hug your GameStop friends.

ChiefMacro

Adding the red bold resistance to the chart, as price continues to breakdown *through itself*. I think ETHUSD hits $2,800 before it $4,800; if it goes to $2,800, it will likely follow through to the $1,800.00 area. Happy New Year. God Bless, Chief

ChiefMacro

Oil coming into a key area at the bottom of an 18-month structure. Typically I would wait for this to fully correct (below the 18-month structure) and then make a decision on how to trade it. But I think the most glaring thing about oil, is the fact that the all time high was set in July 2008. Lots more money out there these days; lot more drivers too. Economy is...

ChiefMacro

The Nasdaq hovering over a 11-12 year structure (orange channel dating back to '09), in what to me looks like a newly formed post-covid-MMT range. In a world with excessive deficits & low interest rates, it's kind of difficult to see this thing returning to that 11-year range; suffice it to say, as long as people are working (and as more people participate in...

ChiefMacro

I am looking at the $BKF (Brazil, Russia, India & China) ETF as a great setup for a buy. From a charting perspective, it looks like the optimal risk / reward entry. In the macroeconomic context - I would also expect rising commodity prices to pull emerging markets higher. More on this soon! Take care and God bless.

ChiefMacro

Thank you everyone for interacting lately. I love really do enjoy the camaraderie. Anyway, we got the move down to the low $40k area and now some kind of attempt to take one more last breath. I think the next move looks something like this chart. The consolidation part - the chop just before the next big move down that I've drawn - will destroy a lot of...