We finally got a decisive move on the daily. MSS/CiSD and a close below the Monthly Volume Imbalance. This should signal lower prices on DXY and higher in the indicies. This could be the quarterly shift and it has priced in the high of year for DXY.
Price is rejecting off the monthly FVG/BPR but I'm not convinced yet that it's going down. This week's weekly candle went O-L-H-C tapping into the weekly FVG on Monday which is bullish but there was no expansion past the weekly -OB or FVG.
Overall I'm still bullish. Targeting the Oct '23 high and the CE of the monthly FVG.
This week DXY reached the CE of the weekly FVG and monthly BPR. I'm not convinced yet that price will go down yet. Monday's expansion into the CE was really the only movement of the week leaving a FVG in it's wake on the daily. Tues/Wed retraced into the FVG and consolidated the rest of the week.
The monthly BPR could be enough to push price down but I'm still...
Once again DXY consolidated this week, finally expanding on Friday on the NFP news release. The move up was not a surprise as I am looking for the CE of weekly FVG to be hit.
The weekly CE is a minimum price objective, the daily looks as if it is poised to possibly go higher and potentially reach the Oct 2023 high inside the monthly FVG. But, I'll re-evaluate...
DXY stayed in consolidation this week. I liked the manipulation down on Wednesday, I thought it was the setup for price to go up the rest of the week and push to the BSL.
Since it stayed in consolidation, my bias has not changed for the upcoming week. Still looking for price to take the daily BSL.
I did not get the manipulation move down to 101.859 prior before the move up but DXY did bullishly brake out the NFP range moving closer to the BSL identified on the daily chart.
I'll stay bullish for at least 1 more week.
Nothing has really changed this week, DXY consolidated inside the range created by NFP.
I'm still bullish (short term) but would like to see a manipulation move down to 101.859 prior to the real move up.
December ended rejecting up out of the monthly
and weekly FVG's (Bullish).
Expectation for 2024:
We should start to see bullish price action up to
104.263, 104.557, and as high as 104.904 (the CE
of the monthly IFVG), likely forming the high of
the year by March.
After that, we should see a MSS lower, going as
low as 88.000 by the end of the year.
DXY did drop into the Weekly FVG, as expected, now I'll look for a rally up towards the BSL @
104.263 and 104.557, potentially going as high as the C.E. of the Monthly FVG @ 104.904.
Although I don't expect much movement the rest of this month due to the holidays. The rally may need to wait until January.
It looks as though the DXY wants to drop down into the discount weekly FVG. The 4H is supporting this idea by holding price inside the -OB.
I'm expecting to see price trade down into the gap (by the end of the year) then rally up to the BSL @ 104.557.
At the same time, ES should be allowed to breach the monthly high and begin to drop.
I'm expecting the 1 hour breaker to hold and provider resistance for a move down to the +OB @ 1.0281. This is a near term perspective as I'm bullish on DXY looking for the premium Daily equal highs to be swept.
