Ciba

Ciba

That was a loud morning (close to EUR's session). ~100DOWN/~100UP/~100DOWN thereabouts. TP on the last SHORT idea due to the failure to break beyond double bottom. Going LONG, but being cautious of the turmoil in Ukraine: 1) Rising trend in RSI (Bulls are putting up a defense) 2) CCI weak LONG signal (after all the ping pong-ing) & Weak RSI LONG signal 3)...

Ciba

Technically the CCI and RSI point SHORT. With the recent happenings in eastern Ukraine, news-wise, SHORT. GBPJPY been recently buoyed by good USD data. GBP data coming out tonight - CPI at estimated 1.6%. Meeting this will probably not help LONG positions. Danske bank, according to their public data, is looking for a SHORT position below 170.9. Again,...

Ciba

Generally tired of the TP stops being taken out versus reaching a target, but I guess that's how it goes. Even though I dislike opening a position on a Friday, went LONG on technical CCI and RSI signalling together, WHILE being near the LT trend. Tight STOP.

Ciba

So that spike yesterday and downturn was (as I've been reading here and there) was a reaction to a down turn in the Nikkei because of the JPY consumer tax hike. HOLDING LONG due to the following: 1) Still above the LT trend line 2) Price has not dipped below the last CCI LONG signal 3) RSI (outside of that jump&dive yesterday) still signals Bull Trend 4) Again,...

Ciba

TP Stop taken for last SHORT idea bouncing off of 400MA on the 1H and the 38.2% Fib off of last rise. Price also passed the 100MA on the 1H and aiming towards 200MA on the 1H. Staying LONG and aiming for the large triangle pattern and beyond. Will readjust with the following: 1) GBP Bank Rate out tonight 2) GBP Asset Purchase out tonight 3) USD Unemployment...

Ciba

Staying LONG and aiming for the large triangle pattern and beyond. Will readjust with the following: 1) GBP Bank Rate out tonight 2) GBP Asset Purchase out tonight 3) USD Unemployment claims out tomorrow early morning 4) USD Federal Balance tomorrow late morning 5) JPY Monetary Minutes tomorrow late afternoon 6) USD PPI early Friday morning Wow, that's a lot...

Ciba

From last idea, took profit of ST SHORT (while looking for LONG candle formation around 170.4 or 169.75). Price is approaching H/L line (Red dashed). Went LONG for the following reasons: 1) Bounce off of 400MA on 1H, which is 200MA on 2H and 100MA on 4H. 2) Bounce off of 38.2% Fib of last rise. 3) Bounce off of seeming LT price level (lower dotted Blue line) 4)...

Ciba

Even with the great GBP data announcements (Manufacturing hit it out of the ballpark) and USD had a great JOLTS, this pair still went SHORT. No announcement supports going SHORT, therefore, will place a small lot SHORT. Looking for a LONG candle pattern around 170.4 (Long Running Price Line) or 169.75 (Long Running Long Trend Line).

Ciba

So when things get dicey and confusing, I have to wake up and expand out the time frame. TP STOP was taken out over night. Seems like an engulfing candle to me on the 4H. I would like price to break 61.8% of last rise. Data coming out tonight and tomorrow (JPY statement, GBP manufacturing, and USD JOLTS).

Ciba

Friday's idea to go LONG at 171.4 never transpired. 171.4 came close, TP STOP never hit. Looks like a large consolidating triangle. There's no reason, data announcement-wise, to change anything. Waiting for: 1) JPY monetary statement at the start of JPY open Tuesday (5PM PST Monday) 2) GBP Manufacturing and USD JOLTS Tuesday PST. Probably want to get out of...

Ciba

That was a volatile PST early morning. I did not have a TTO set to take advantage of the plunge to 171.5 and reset SHORT for my initial target of 171.4. That's unfortunate, but it's pretty wild that GBPJPY gets so much action with the USD NFP. A 80 pip plunge and then buy-in, almost set up a large hammer candle? (oh, I follow Danske, their TP STOP was taken...

Ciba

Earlier choices of 1) STAY LONG through pause or 2) CONSOLIDATE SHORT into triangle played out. The TP Stop on staying LONG triggered. Though there may be a rebound LONG off of the local support lines, going SHORT for the following reasons: 1) Poor GBP two days in a row (When the data came out late last PST night, I probably should have gone SHORT then, rather...

Ciba

Seems the run up to the poor GBP data (it didn't seem too bad to me, but then who'm I to say) on Construction PMI (if the market believed it was bad, we would definitely had a stronger reversal) gave this long LONG a significant pause. The difference between yesterday's pause and today's pause is the tighter grouping of the candle signals - at least what it seems...

Ciba

My last idea of HOLDING a prior LONG then into a SHORT did not transpire when the PMI came out. So I'm still holding LONG for the following reasons: 1) Last night's lull in trading (GBP PMI didn't impress)(all the excitement was over at EURJPY) allowed for MACD and RSI to calm down. 2) As indicated earlier, I follow Danske and their public FX disclosures,...

Ciba

100 pips after last LONG (see earlier posting), still HOLDING LONG (with loose TP stop) until SHORT for the following reasons: 1) had to wait until after Carney spoke (looking at the market, I couldn't tell if he spoke or not) 2) first high speculation on JPY Tankan 3) then high speculation on GBP PMI 4) we're getting kind of heated Say Manufacturing PMI meets...

Ciba

Holding LONG since 169, will not TAKE PROFIT for the following reasons: 1) Since today's opening, I've been looking for a BEARISH ENGULFING on the 15M chart. No avail and it's getting close to my shutting down for the evening. 2) GBPJPY crossed a seemingly long term ongoing threshold around 170.1-170.4 (Flat Blue Dotted Line) 3) Following Danske Bank, they've...

Ciba

I've always wanted to see a Cup and Handle pattern. However: 1) The smaller one doesn't match the requirements (it's forming off a local high) 2) The larger one will most likely be capped by the forming triangle Upper Blue Dotted line. There's a fun pareidolia Elliot/Fib/Gartley. Still LONG, BUT for better reasons posted earlier. (Oh, looks like a bearish...

Ciba

I've always wanted to see a Cup and Handle pattern. However: 1) The smaller one doesn't match the requirements (it's forming off a local high) 2) The larger one will most likely be capped by the forming triangle Upper Blue Dotted line. There's a fun pareidolia Elliot/Fib/Gartley. Still LONG, BUT for better reasons posted earlier. (Oh, looks like a bearish...