A few words about the prospects of oil through the lens of options trading. The sentiment is leaning more bearish than bullish. We're seeing a surge in vertical spreads and butterflies on puts, targeting the $65-60 range for February-March 2025. If we look at the charts, the price action resembles a 'settling' at the support level of $65-66. It’s looking like...
The current correction in Gold is likely targeting the $2680 level, which remains relevant. However, there's also an interesting level at $2640 that has emerged along the way . This doesn’t change the overall bearish outlook for Gold, but I want to highlight something new! I’m pointing out an important detail for you: the price behavior at the $2590 level....
I'm not a psychic, and I don't have a crystal ball, but here's what I clearly see and can share with you: for several days now, there’s been a flow of options at the 100,000 strike changing hands. What's crucial is that this option series still has 14 days left before expiration, and there's a high probability it could go in the money, meaning it could exceed...
The current chart setup for Gold is decidedly bearish: we’re seeing a breakdown through key support and a local low. This is clear and hard to miss. Retail traders are diving in, buying the dip, and they’re not in a rush to close their long positions, hoping to ride it out. This sentiment is actually quite good for the bearish trend. That said, when we zoom out...
Let’s talk about Gold for a sec. I mentioned before that this level would be attractive for Gold because there’s liquidity and a local minimum that traders all over the world are eyeing and will be trading around. And that’s pretty much what happened. But then Gold dipped lower and 'knocked' on another level of accumulated liquidity—what some folks call the...
I’m not really convinced that Trump cares about oil prices being at $50 a barrel. The U.S. is the biggest oil producer out there, and at that price, a lot of oil fields are going to struggle to stay profitable because of inflation and rising costs. Plus, American oil companies can’t just devalue their currency to cushion the blow from falling prices, so I doubt...
So, the trading week is behind us, and it’s time to kick back a bit, assess the price action, and build a trading plan for the upcoming week, keeping the main drivers in mind. Today, let’s focus on Gold. Looking at the COT reports: there’s a divergence between the positions of the Commercials and the movement of the underlying asset. What does that mean? It...
Alright, alright, it seems like someone has seriously geared up for a rocket launch in the Australian dollar, and it’s happening in the next few days. Looks like we might get some news dropped right after everything goes down, or maybe I’m just out of the loop. A super aggressive portfolio, a Call Spread, popped up yesterday, and it looks like they’re still...
It seems like the euro is on the hunt for some support. Could the bulls finally take charge and pull the euro out of its steep decline? The indicators are sending mixed signals. And when I say "indicators," I’m not talking about stochastics, moving averages, or that kind of stuff. I’m referring to the data from COT reports (show sentiment leaning towards a...
Alright, let’s break this down. We’ve seen a significant influx of call options at the 70,000 strike on the CME, which is generally a pretty positive signal. Especially when you consider the recent breakout from a descending broad channel, with prices holding just above that upper boundary. Looks like we’re heading up—clear signal, right? But here’s the kicker:...
Our analysis of options portfolios from October 25th revealed a Straddle setup on the Japanese yen futures, with a short expiration date set for November 1, 2024. Now, this isn’t exactly a rare sight for the yen; these Straddle portfolios pop up pretty regularly, especially when we’re looking at short expiration periods. From what we've seen, in about 4 out of 5...
A platinum Insider hasn't changed portfolio yet, so there's still potential for more growth. Let me remind you, on September 4th, an insider came into the Platinum market and went long, which caused the price of Platinum (and other precious metals) to go up. Now, prices are getting close to his target levels. This is important because it shows the market's...
Let me start with a disclaimer that I firmly believe in and adhere to: don’t flip the trend; leave that to those who are just here to play around and get their adrenaline fix while watching their accounts explode. Now, let’s get down to business. On August 5, 2024, when gold was languishing in a sideways market around $2400 on the CME, an insider option...
These circles (on the chart) show where bears are stuck. Such levels have a great inductive element to them. And how they're crossed, whether they hang around for a while or rebounce quickly, gives a good indication of what the market price will do next. Moreover, according to publicly data, the average retail positions level is approximately $2,580. In other...
Someone yesterday dumped a lot of money into an options portfolio, that's designed to lower the price of December US10-year Bond futures. That automatically means more US 10Y yield, and since there's a strong correlation with the Dollar, it also means the Dollar is going up. The most curious thing is watching how the S&P 500 makes ATH during rising Dollar. Such...
Well, he crypto options market is experiencing a surge in growth, driven by increasing adoption and maturation. Key trends include short-term turbulence versus long-term growth, with a focus on short volatility on elections and long positions on new all-time highs by the end of the year. Whale Activity Whales are taking a protectionist approach, with a focus on...
Let me share my observations on Bitcoin, starting with the obvious. On the 4-hour chart, any trader with more than a week of experience can see that Bitcoin is moving in a widening descending channel. To put it simply, the price action is forming a "trail" that fits perfectly within this channel. Over the past few days, prices have been "testing" the...
Negative option flows were found for two metals at the same time: silver and copper. Portfolios that want prices to fall appeared at the same time as the market is growing, which is interesting. The positions are quite large, but they cannot be called "Insider positions", so we will be careful with forecasts. Of course, we need chart confirmation that...