CoinChartist

CoinChartist

Making a prediction for how the rest of the cycle goes according to the log curve.

CoinChartist

These are the times things almost seem easy in technical analysis. Sir John Templeton says the most dangerous words in investing are "this time it's different". Is it different?

CoinChartist

I've poured every ounce of my being into understanding markets, cyclical behaviors, patterns, etc. I very much believe this is the path for Bitcoin. Wave 5 will resemble wave 1. I expect it to run to the 1.618 fib extension. There will be no retest just like in wave 1, but the level will later be retested as the eventual next bear market bottom. Everyone...

CoinChartist

Using a variety of Gann studies, I am attempting to use price and time to make predictions. No idea of this is accurate or not, but is a fun experiment.

CoinChartist

With Bitcoin recovering, I am beginning to consider this parabolic curve holding much like it did during past cycles right above this particular line. That commenced the final stage of each bull market so far.

CoinChartist

This would be only a 78% retrace which is short of the typical 80+% bear market retraces. Bitcoin would retrace back to the yearly close that caused the bear market before the bull market was confirmed. $14K would be closer to the bottom. It also would keep the idea of a wave four ending into a wave five final impulse alive, much like 2013 – which was a similar retrace.

CoinChartist

Everyone is watching the obvious symmetrical triangle, but let's face it, this is Bitcoin, and things are going to get nasty because it is so obvious. Considering past sentiment waves, a further pump here could convince the market of an upwards breakout, which will be sold down to new lows. At that point the market will capitulate and see real fear and be...

CoinChartist

We're seeing almost an exact fractal pattern from 2018 to 2019. Play this accordingly. I expect a similar pattern where there are both lower highs and higher lows until lows are finally swept, then we proceed higher.

CoinChartist

Parabola would still be intact, but blindside bulls before the final leg up. There's an evening star doji forming, and next to no support below. To be completely clear, I do not expect the bull market to be over. Just wave four of five starting now - downward. Five is up to $100K+. Don't get shaken out.

CoinChartist

Things aren't looking so hot for Bitcoin based on the past cycle. However, I still don't think this is the top, and that there is more pain ahead for the dollar before the cryptocurrency has peaked.

CoinChartist

I was always turned away from Elliott Wave Theory by other crypto analysts and traders, but after reading the "personalities" and psychology behind each wave, and saw how well the targets matched up with $BTCUSD recently, that I am increasingly convinced that Bitcoin is in wave 3 and is trying to decide if the wave will extend, or complete and retrace. If wave 3...

CoinChartist

Bitcoin was programmed to bubble up every four years, sucking in new participants to the network and ensuring steady adoption. Because the 2013/2017 tops and 2014/2018 bottoms line up so perfectly, using cyclical lines, I projected these forward, and crafted a pitchfork channel valid across both tops and bottoms. From there, I used fibs, diminishing returns and...

CoinChartist

Bitcoin is at the top of the nearly ten year buy zone, where accumulation takes place. When it leaves the channel, the asset goes parabolic until its next peak. Then it makes its way back into the channel for reaccumulation. BTC is as bullish as it gets, but big players might not just yet be willing to run too hot and make their entry costs too high. Price will...

CoinChartist

Bitcoin is very bullish. Big buyers are here, and nothing will get them to buy more furiously than one more dip in BTC. Here's how it plays out, with a bottom set around February 1 or 2 before moving back up and beating $13,800.

CoinChartist

If Bitcoin is to follow a four-year cycle based on the halving's impact on supply and demand, we should retest all-time high before the year's end, or very close to it. If we do not, and Bitcoin crashes, I will begin to lose faith in S2F models, but not in Bitcoin itself. It just means longer to wait, which is okay.

CoinChartist

This idea was inspired by bitharington's post on Twitter where he outlines at what levels he would consider each variation of Bitcoin's stock to flow model created by Plan B would be invalidated. The levels are as follows: S2F-org: May-21 20K; Sep-21 30K; Jan-22 50K. S2F-upd: Mar-21 20K; Sep-21 40K; Jan-22 80K. S2FX: Mar-21 30K; Sep-21 90K; Jan-22 200K. I have...

CoinChartist

Bitcoin is at a crossroads. Either it confirms both downtrend resistance and $10,000 as resistance turned support, and rallies toward new all-time highs or a false breakout of the multi-year symmetrical triangle is confirmed, and new lows are possible. Here's a look at the big picture and overall market structure in BTCUSD.

CoinChartist

It is crystal clear - Bitcoin market cycles are lengthening. Superimposing each BTC peak over the current top, each peak results in a 574-day distance from the next. This could suggest that Bitcoin may not peak until July 2023, and at a price of $200,000 rather than the $325,000 projected from the last market cycle.