ConservativeOne1

ConservativeOne1

This looks like the most likely path for DXY which would likely extend the rally in metals and stocks for a bit longer before a decent drop...

ConservativeOne1

I see this as a 3-3-5 correction....we are now in the 5 wave sequence which will likely be quite deep in my opinion...likely back up to the 4k region before dropping hard. Note there is no way to know the exact pivot pt on this retracement...it can be shallow or deep...pretty much anything goes on wave 2....but the deepest is typically 0.786 which is not uncommon...

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

The last count I posted which was very bearish...was incorrect...will not explain in this format...suffice it to say that the count was not correct...but yet I remain bearish...especially near term.

ConservativeOne1

Based upon the reaction to the jobs report...projects for wave 5 are now deeper!!!!

ConservativeOne1

Lots of stock bears about to be trapped in my opinion....we should get a shallow break of support this morning...but the DXY will likely pivot in a wave 4 high and reverse to the downside...this would cause stocks to reverse and rally hard for a few weeks...likely all the way back up to the main trend line resistance...this would be fueled by lots of "bears" that...

ConservativeOne1

FYI...this the alternate for DXY which aligns in some ways better with the count for precious metals...

ConservativeOne1

This could get ugly quickly...this is a moderate view...but we could easily push this down a few hundred pts deeper.

ConservativeOne1

In my opinion (IMO) we need to see another move down in SPX....like this...then we will see...

ConservativeOne1

One more push down for wave 2 imo, then a hard reversal which will send stocks and metals down

ConservativeOne1

As you can see from the chart below, I think we have one more leg down before a significant retrace back up to the 4k area on SPX

ConservativeOne1

Silver is close to a significant pivot pt in my opinion...booking profits and will await pull back for re-entry

ConservativeOne1

In the near term, it looks like Silver may continue up a bit even after SPX pivots and pulls back...both ultimately should pull back vs the USD, but I see SPX falling faster and perhaps harder.

ConservativeOne1

A closer view of a bearish count on gold...the fact that everyone is getting boolish makes me give this more credibility....the invalidation line is the last major...if that breaks then this count dies.

ConservativeOne1

Ever the contrarian...and seeing how everyone is getting bullish on metals, I am sharing this idea. In some ways it does better fit the EW principles than the boolish counts that you are seeing published in many places

ConservativeOne1

Oops...noticed an error in a prior chart that I posted on silver...still bearish near term...pivot should happen this week.

ConservativeOne1

Inflation is close to topping imo...we should see TLT reverse in the next 2 weeks...the bottom could actually already be in...but expect a beach ball move on TLT soon. You can therefore anticipate what is about to happen to commodities, and other asset classes...stocks too the moon...new all time highs.

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

If I am correct...this is THE PIVOT! This is the early signal of the SPX dump and silver's moon shot...look at this ratio!

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

This one has pulled back to desperation levels in my opinion...we are at make or break for FSM! My bet is an explosive move up is here!