ConservativeOne1

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

To me it looks like we have one more leg down coming for silvah....look at the bullish flag and the longer term trend line...both in white....both come together around $19-$20 USD....that is where I see the bottom of this long long consolidation!

ConservativeOne1

In my humble opinion silver miners are the buy of the century right here. They are incredibly cheap when compared to other assets and they have fallen out of favor with most investors. No analyst are really covering them at the moment...and with most other assets (e.g.- equities and real estate being at all time highs) precious metals are the one that I am...

ConservativeOne1

Everyone has become uber bullish on the mkts...want to provide a contrarian...or otherwise a realistic alternate count on SPX that I see playing out. if we break the pivot pt indicated by the yellow arrow then a down move is confirmed...cannot guarantee the actual downside tgt will be hit, but the upside move would be over and atleast this huge run since early...

ConservativeOne1

Silvah low is in bois and grls...if not on board better do so quickly! There will be no return to these levels...PERIOD!!!

ConservativeOne1

I believe this will be a rocket ship move...all aboard!!!! wave III is starting

ConservativeOne1

I came up with this one...have not seen it anywhere else...but it does seem to fit nicely....boy if this is correct, we are about to truly moon!!!

ConservativeOne1

I see SILVAH being the best play available and it is about to break out hard...(See previous post). With this in mind, I am loading up on junior miners...SILJ is one way to play the silvah move with some leverage. Expecting great things soon!

ConservativeOne1

In my estimation, the capitulation we saw recently was the low in metals...expecting major move up from here....we will ultimately see if I am correct. But as for me and my $, we are fully on board!

ConservativeOne1

Many have been submitting counts that are incredibly bullish....and yes I have a few of those as well. However, this count which looks very interesting says something different! I think blow off top may have just happened and next week could be the start of the large retrace we have been waiting for...only time will tell, but this indeed could be a major pivot...

ConservativeOne1

I am watching the 10 yr yield and the DXY (dollar)for direction. Chart below tells my key levels and what should ensue following a breach of these levels. (**NOTE** the recent drop in yields and today's spike in DXY is a cautionary signal...be on guard for a decent pb soon...or of course it could be a fake out...only time will tell)...but watch these two...

ConservativeOne1

I am expecting a pull back of 10%+ soon...not trying to call a top...but there appears to be little momentum and follow thru on the recent ATH...and we appear to be in an ending diagonal on SPX. This with the recent decline in 10 yr yields and today's spike in the DXY (dollar) tells me that there is fear creeping into the market...if this takes hold a sell off...

ConservativeOne1

Beware!!! IF the stock mkts sell off, Silver will be taken down with it...why? Way to many investors are using leverage...they will have to sell everything to make margin calls...and precious metals will take a hit! Be hedged appropriately and buy with both hands if this happens...I have raised cash as a hedge and have purchased some VIX exposure...I did not...

ConservativeOne1

Check back in6 months to see if this comes true...that is my prediction...before year end...likely in the fall...we hit $60/oz

ConservativeOne1

As you all know, bonds and stocks typically move opposite of one another...however if you look at the chart below, for the few couple of months this is not the case...both TLT and SPX are moving inthe same direction...one of these charts is telling us the wrong message. I am betting that SPX is the chart that is lying...I am expecting a reversal soon.

ConservativeOne1

Too many are getting negative on gold...I am seeing more live in the PMs in the near term...the traders that dumped on margin are almost done imo...this means more upside as the market drops hard next month...and yes the correlation with the stock market and gold is about to break and the inverse relationship we are use to is about to resume...stocks down...gold up!

ConservativeOne1

Most analyst are expecting the USD to continue to strengthen...I say NO. I see this dropping sharply as the FED goes nuclear on stimulus...we will see. BTW, I see gold putting in a floor very soon and about to bounce hard.

ConservativeOne1

I have revised my previously posted SPX count...what I thought was the conclusion of wave 4 turns out was likely a conclusion of wave 4 of a lesser degree. So the sub wave 5 that I expect will only be completing the wave 3 of a higher degree vs the over all wave 5 of the 5-3-5 combination sequence...See picture below. This seems to line up better with the fib extensions.

ConservativeOne1

Regarding my last post...silver bulls last stand... See the first part to this count that is somewhat questionable....Note the top of the candle body on Wave 1 (white) and the bottom of wave 4(white) candle bodies...both sit right on the blue line. Any thing more in either direction would invalidate the count...only the wicks are allowed to overlap and still...