ConservativeOne1

ConservativeOne1

the only count that I can come up with that still has a bullish view for silver...on any TF less than 1 week this count invalidates as you have an overlap of more than a wick for waves 1 and 4...this is an "extremely" lenient count for the bulls...if this closes below the blue line on a weekly basis this count invalidates and would be very bearish!

ConservativeOne1

I hate to say it but I see a full 50% retracement of the entire 2009-2020 bull market in progress...we should see a final leg down to complete wave 5 of the 5-3-5 combination that I see at the moment this will be followed by a 3 wave (ABC pattern) which should take us back up to around the 50% the entire down move of the the last two weeks...this is a chance for...

ConservativeOne1

Bearish technical count is actually more compelling...hard decision...but goes against the fundamentals and what is going on in the world...which do we follow??

ConservativeOne1

I believe this chart is the question of the decade...or multiple decades! Which direction will we follow...are you bullish or bearish? I personally am betting on the bullish case given the uncertainty and fiscal irresponsibility of all the governments...I cannot see gold falling back to $800-900/oz with the amount of stimulus that is about to come...but then...

ConservativeOne1

My latest view...we are headed back to Dec 24, 2018 lows...the first 5 wave sequence should end today or tomorrow...then a small bounce will occur...but the major selling will resume shortly after...and yes we will equal or perhaps break the Dec lows.

ConservativeOne1

See the attached dollar chart...with the fed engaged in quantitative easing...the dollar has no where to go but down...and down hard...that will push Precious Metals up equally hard and inspite the efforts to prop up the markets they will drop hard ...along with Oil!

ConservativeOne1

I think silver may bounce slightly but will ultimately go close to $16 before major reversal to more than $21...timing is tough..but I am not selling until we break $21. Bought way back in May and I am still holding...

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

In the short term, I see a small push to the upside...perhaps SPY to 3020-3050 range...but longer term...this does not look as bullish...I see a larger bearish megaphone pattern.

ConservativeOne1

www.tradingview.com

ConservativeOne1

Again...I ask are we too bearish? This market is causing me to change my position...it just seems like more upside is in the cards...could we see a bullish breakout from this ascending right triangle?

ConservativeOne1

I actually see a change in the future for SPY...I was quite bearish , but my sentiment has changed with the recent rally and breaking of multiple resistances... Gold on the other hand looks poised for significant pull back...see below. Of course if I am wrong about SPY that could mean a different outcome for gold.

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

How can anyone look at this and be bullish??? IMO we are living on borrowed time....

ConservativeOne1

I am bullish on gold in the longer term...but short term bearish...see longer term view below www.tradingview.com

ConservativeOne1

www.tradingview.com There are way more so called experts calling for the plunge...could they be wrong...again!

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

www.tradingview.com

ConservativeOne1

Some had asked for a closer up view (smaller TF) of the prior post...here is it. www.tradingview.com

ConservativeOne1

I believe this is the end of the ending diagonal structure we have been in for several monnths. The confluence is tremendous using multiple fib and pitchfork tools. I also took ratio measurements of the wave 1 to wave 3 and wave 2 to wave 4 and they are spot on from a symmetry perspective(I removed them from the chart as it made things too cluttered)...using...

ConservativeOne1 Updated 

Click below to see my latest idea...the summary is we continue a bit lower before a bounce to $8.2k and then a sharp reversal to below $6k. www.tradingview.com