ContraryTrader

ContraryTrader

Nasty distribution playing out here... End of Q2 target is 320-350 Monthly chart.. Reversal candle In Dec . Structure is sideways for the entire 2024 which is an ENTIRE year of DISTRIBUTION. Weekly chart My minimum target for a Wyckoff off of this size is 345 or as low as the weekly 200ma I don't think we go straight there.. I think in the next 2weeks...

ContraryTrader

Headed back to 180 price action and trendline support but first a push back to 208-210 (20ma) + theres a gap to close from March 5th I don't think price makes it back over 210 before it take a turn down to 180 BUT if price can close above 211, then we are headed here 215 price action + the weekly 20ma at 217 .. that my extreme long target that will only...

ContraryTrader

Interesting spot here near 200.00 Honesty it's the most oversold Stock/Index on my watchlist. Actually price has been trading inside this channel here After finishing up a H&S pattern Over the next 2weeks I think we can see a move back to 214 channel top and H&S neckline I don't think that move will be straight V shape either, maybe a pop to 206 or...

ContraryTrader

When I dive in to charts I like to start at the monthly and zoom out years Monthly view Side ways and trend less . Price is trading between 120-400.. On sideways trends you usually see price return back Demand. Throw on some cute trendlines and you can see the triangle that led to the explosive move.. Trendline support is Around 210.. below 210 cand TSLA is...

ContraryTrader

Price is overbought on the monthly and weekly money flow and RSI.. This current rang trade is likely distribution Also we are 30% extended from the 50 SMA . This is extreme I would buy this at all up here , I think we will retest 104-108 (Weekly200ma) on a pullback before we break over 150. I don't know when this distribution breaks and price resets...

ContraryTrader

Weekly chart... White line represents Primary trend since 08 housing crisis crash Blue channel represents price action from 2017 -2025 Now pay attention.. You see the yellow trendlines ? Those represent the up trend from covid crash and 2022 crash. Those were micro uptrends both lasting 2yrs in length.. So now the market has hit a reset switch and I...

ContraryTrader

So .. Keep things simple.. Qqq has support at 468-470.. below that support at 450 comes... Qqq 1st resistance is at 477, over 477 and 483 comes. .. The technicals say we should bounce up to 483-485 if Jolts come in decent today.. The bad news is Until post Opex we are in a Bearish seasonality.. The structure on one of the biggest sectors XLC (Meta,NFLX)...

ContraryTrader

Major ascending broadening wedge here .. this is a huge Bearish pattern that I think will take IWM back to 198 and possibly 165. The question is , do we tag upper boundary around 250 before it happens? Let's look closer at the last 2month price action... Bulls will say it's a pennant that will push IWM to 250 Bears see a bear flag What do I see ?...

ContraryTrader

Earnings this week.. long term channel (Yellow) Mid term channel (White) In my last Amzn post (See link) I said Amzn could grind at the top of it's long term channel after a pullback from 230, and it has.. from 218 - 237 and now we are at a crossroads this earnings.. Both scenarios will end in a massive correction but one scenario could give a 7% pop...

ContraryTrader

Now turn it around! 2 targets on Spy this week.. the first is 589 gap support.. Also the weekly 20sma is around 589-590 and if you look at your weekly chart fawkery abounds nears the weekly 20. If we break below weekly 20 which I would say is a 50/50 then price will double to back to 575 or lower trendline like so Looking at the charts you'll notice...

ContraryTrader

Retesting resistance here at 237.. I've outlined with circles .. also retesting 20sma... I don't think price breaks back over this area.. my target is 216 gap, maybe lower but the 200sma must be respected. Stop loss over 240 or 50sma If price breaks back above 242 then I was wrong and 250 is coming

ContraryTrader

🤨. Retest and rejected trendline last Wed and Friday As you can see. Remember Decembers monthly Candle? It sets the stage for a Bearish reversal but price would need to close below 510 for the month of January to confirm it!.. I think it's a very high chance 524 gap close comes. So much to go over I'll update more and even entertain upside scenarios 😂...

ContraryTrader

Looking like a good short setup here risk to reward . Currently price is sitting at a 7 year supply area.. monthly and weekly technicals are getting overbought and daily technicals are at extremes already... The short Entry would be below 81.00 with the first target being 78.00 2nd target 74.00 My final target would be 63-67 but I expect price to bounce...

ContraryTrader

Found support At 14.50 today 4hour CCI and RSI tells me look for a bounce to 18.50 and maybe higher over the next week

ContraryTrader

Short anything near 200.. stop loss above 205... Looking for that 175 gap close or wedge support by earnings or from earnings .. Rising wedge here And once support breaks you will see googl at 116

ContraryTrader

Obvious rising wedge here... short anything near 225.. stop loss over 230.. target 206 gap close or trendline support When this wedge finally breaks TSM will test 150

ContraryTrader

As you can see the weekly resistance (Yellow) from 2023 has turned into support.. Breaks 820 and price heads back to monthly support (White) around 700.. Bounces on earnings and we retest 880-900... 700 will come though, either Q1 or Q2... When ever this wedge breaks you'll be able to get NFLX for 400-500 bucks

ContraryTrader

Upside target this week is 602.50 - 603.00 Spy Over 599 and 603 comes .I think there will be push back around 602.. pullback targets at 602 is 599 and below that 595. Max downside is 590 (20sma) below 590 and this was a dead cat . 10year gapped below 20sma Friday. Looks like it wants a pullback to support and 50sma.. I'll be watching 10yr at 50sma . If it...