Cowston

Cowston Updated 

Vix rising channel appeared at the beginning of Feb. RSI downtrend was invalidated today (2/17) as RSI broke to the upside. Resistance at 31.95 based on Jan 26’s close price. My guess is Vix marches up to 31.95 in the next few days.

Cowston Updated 

Bitcoin appears to be forming an inverted head and shoulders (H&S). My prediction is Bitcoin will test a long-term support range of $33,405 to $34,725 during the week of Feb 28. Bitcoin last tested this range in early winter and mid-summer of 2021. What happens after bitcoin tests that range? It'll either go up or down. Though my bias when it comes to Bitcoin...

Cowston

If S&P 500 closes below support level of 4291.25, which has held since July of 2021, then that would be confirmation of the following idea. The S&P 500 is likely headed to 4118 or 3990.5, which are the fib extensions of the downtrend which began on Jan 4, 2022, marked as point A on the chart. Points A, B, and C on the chart were used to create a "Trend-based...

Cowston

S&P 500 futures have respected the downtrend since Jan 4, 2022. They're headed to a support zone of 4,318 to 4,291 that was last tested in July 2021, October 2021 and January of 2022. Once they reach this zone, they might bounce... or not. I can't be sure what they'll do once they reach the zone, but it looks like they will hit that zone given the RSI is breaking...

Cowston Updated 

...and broke medium term uptrend. Why does the S&P 500 priced in Euros matter? Critical to understanding this idea is understanding that due to the nature of cross-border investment flows, debt markets and equity markets in other countries are about to have a massive impact on the United States markets. Since the markets melted down last March, market...

Cowston

As the chart explains, US people made a historic dash for cash in November. Foreign investors didn't gobble up US assets. US bond prices trended down too, tracking the declines in USD. So, who is buying stocks, and when do they run out of money? Thoughts?

04:35

Cowston

An interesting thing happened in the last 2 weeks of November. Money Supply: United States people fled to cash by converting M2 money stock (savings, investments, money market) into M1 (checking and cash). Dollar: Foreign investors presumably sold off dollar assets bringing DXY down around 2% in the month. To recap: The money supply indicates that US people...

Cowston

What the hell is happening in the stock market? Is this 1929 all over again?

Cowston

The power of having the world's leading reserve currency, USD, is an exorbitant privilege. The US is abusing this privilege with all the actions of the federal reserve to save the domestic economy at the expense of creditors. Ray Dalio wrote in September, "The United States is testing the limits of how much there can simultaneously be a) enormous amounts of...

Cowston

Here's a view of the S&P 500 index divided by the price of gold. It shows a top in 2018. A trend line of consecutive peaks shows that today--even with Chairman Powell's money printer humming along, the S&P 500 index is still looking over valued. Are economic conditions better today than in 2018 and 2019? I'd say no given the covid-19 pandemic. (There's a virus,...

Cowston

Is this what $GOOG bulls are thinking?

Cowston

In March 2020, the stock market melted down due to a run on securities, which started in the repo markets, dollar-funding markets, and entered every market. This was a liquidity crisis that unfolded faster than the world had ever seen before. Then, governments stabilized the markets with monetary and fiscal policy. Today, liquidity looks OK. Banks look OK. The...

Cowston Updated 

Every time Trump and Pelosi flirt with this next round of stimulus the market goes up. Hasn't it already priced in the stimulus like every day it went up since stimulus talks began? On the downside, you have these risk factors: 1. Chinese news saying China is going to ready to take Taiwan. That would put the US alliance system into question if we didn't go to...