CrosbyVenture

CrosbyVenture

At upwards of 18X price to earnings ratio, Winnebago is the overleveraged American dream. With a falling interest in mobile homes and trends away from travelling the heartland of the US, will this trend continue? Since the bottom of the COVID-19 crisis, we've seen a 180% rally in $ NYSE:WGO , similarly so in $ NYSE:CWH . Overextended?

CrosbyVenture Updated 

May 19th is Walmart's earnings. No doubt numbers are already expected to be quite high. That said, if you look at the YTD chart, there's little to write home about this stock. Expecting a gap fill, not sure I'll stay in after that.

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Wells is now off more than 50% since the start of the Coronavirus pandemic. However, Wells suffers from much more than a pandemic: Over the last two years, scandals around nefarious sales practices, some unfortunate executive departures, and an inability to grow top line has hit them hard, and the crisis has hit them especially hard in revenue terms. We're now...

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Looking at the snapback, Amazon is trading close to fresh highs; more than a 50% move since March 16th, which is shocking. Billions created here. Overhyped in my opinion.

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Still not sure how much more we have to go here... though, at 4x price to sales, seems like it could move up.

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I'm slowly adding here, especially after grandpa Warren has already made his move. 66% off the highs.

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Delta Airlines ( $DAL ) really doesn't seem to have a bid. Waiting for the post-crisis breakdown.

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Hormel Foods is an industrial scale grocery supplier. Similar footprint to that of Campbell's $CPB but with a lower OpEx and higher revenues. Notably, the company trades at nearly 3x P/S versus Campbell's which trades at 2x P/S. Both seem like logical, undervalued, consumer staples, though I would see a convergence in this price differential as we come closer...

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Recent price volatility says a lot about human behavior, but the long term price chart for Campbell's is relatively lackluster versus others. No doubt consumer staples and essential items are going to get a boost here with upcoming earnings in Mid-may. Worth watching. Post-earnings, I'm looking for $53/share.

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Not that there's any underlying correlation, but it's important to look at the comparable YTD performance of different assets over time. Clorox is not only beating the S&P500 YTD, but Gold, and Bitcoin too. Talk about a store of wealth? Clorox wipes for my new 401k! Here's a live stream covering this comparison, among others: www.tradingview.com

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Revenue is surprisingly not what I thought! $141B versus $87B... which is which? Take a look at the chart...

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Breaking today, Lukin's COO (Jian Liu) said to have fabricated sales in a massive overstatement of 2019 revs. But by how much? Previously stated sales in 2019 were 2.9 billion yuan ($413 million). Overstated 2019 sales by about 2.2 billion yuan ($310 million). So essentially... -75.86 % of their revenue was overstated! Incredibly surprising... but this goes...

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Data pulled from Quandl showing the current Federal Reserve balance sheet. This will be the single largest balance sheet inflation period in history, as we are now slowing grinding higher, the Fed is out buying assets hand over fist, short term, at breakneck pace.

CrosbyVenture Updated 

No doubt, we have a significant volume coming into the market today (across exchanges). Next stop? I've got a couple pivot points in place around $7,500.

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An update to our previous estimate. At current, it looks like there is no bounce for BA. We are exceeding a 70% decline since the start of the #Covid19 outbreak and a near-80% decline since the engine defect back in early 2019. At some point, I'd expect an asset backing to come into place - i.e. equity relief, or cash injection/short term maturity bonds.

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Update from Moderna CEO tomorrow on current supply and R&D trials. Volatility dropping from highs.

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On the lows today, looks like we could re-test the 70s here. We broke the 2009 highs last week.

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February 20th - March 18th saw a 50% drawdown to AXP, this is a long term play, but also a short-term trade with size.