Crowded_Market_Report

Crowded_Market_Report

On Friday, the newest COT data was released and Large Speculators continued to be non-believers in this Bitcoin rally increasing their net-short position significantly from the previous week. For the third time in the past 18 months, Bitcoin makes a new-all time high on a closing basis, after Large Speculators became crowded short BTC futures. This is something...

Crowded_Market_Report

Well, Large Speculators did it again. They covered their longs, went net-short last week, and Bitcoin continued to rally now ~20% higher than the recent lows two weeks ago. That is when Large Specs first covered half their longs. It would be an impressive record if they continue to sell as Bitcoin makes news highs, which has happened a few times in the past few...

Crowded_Market_Report

A few weeks ago we reviewed Gold price action and positioning and how Large Speculators (blude column and traditionally trend followers) started to sell Gold which I could not explain. Well, they continued to sell Gold futures, and now Gold is breaking out making new all-time highs. If anyone knows who is buying this Gold, please comment and let me know, because...

Crowded_Market_Report

Last month, I pointed out that Large Speculators started to close out their net-long positions in Gold futures, betting on the possibility of a reversal as they attempted to time the market turn at all-time highs. This behavior continued for several weeks, yet Gold’s price continued its upward rally, leaving many traders scratching their heads. What’s particularly...

Crowded_Market_Report

We published this chart a few months back noting that Bitcoin has never rallied while Large Speculators were net-long in Bitcoin futures and that streak continues this month as they remain net-long. This past week, Large Speculators actually increased their net-long positions by a lot as Bitcoin continues to struggle and near 2025 lows. This will be a good...

Crowded_Market_Report

Since the October 2022 low in the S&P, Large Speculators (blue column) have not bought any dips in the market with significance where they got crowded getting long. Since that low, the S&P kept making new all-time highs and the Speculators never chased. Tt's going to be real interesting cot on Friday, 03/07/2025, to see if they bought this dip in stocks which...

Crowded_Market_Report

Large Speculators are now net-short Bitcoin futures (red circle, bottom right) according to COT positioning data. As previously published, Bitcoin has never rallied when LG Specs were net-long, but that does not mean BTC is going to instantly start going up with the turn to net-short. From an overall positioning standpoint, Bitcoin is neutral since non of the...

Crowded_Market_Report

A few weeks back we published the Bitcoin chart and highlighted how in the history of Bitcoin Futures, whenever Large Speculators were net-long, Bitcoin did not rally. Well, here we are and still it trades in a range as Large Speculators are net-long. The amount in positioning has fluctuated but as of Last week, they remain bullish. Historically, Large...

Crowded_Market_Report

There has been a lot of talk of tariffs which added extra volatility to the markets but eventually the stock market shrugged off the news and is back on it's up trend. Coffee seems to be where Large Speculators (blue column) are focusing their longs as they are now at max levels we have not seen before with coffee at new highs. This now skews the reward of the...

Crowded_Market_Report

As Trump announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which was bullish the USD, the CAD closed the day green as Commercial traders are net-long while Speculators are increasing their short position. Will fading this crowded trade (not max crowded yet) end up being one of the better trades during the first quarter of 2025? This is also not the only currency set up that...