CryptoTraderMark10

CryptoTraderMark10

As you can see, Bitcoin LOVES to hang out in this channel. But when it does break out of it, it breaks out in a major way with a massive price surge. Breaking out of this channel led to the 20K bull run and also our last run up to 14K. It could be a while until we break out though. If we get rejected from the top of it - as we did 5 times before the 2017 bull run...

CryptoTraderMark10

On the lower time frames (ie, 4hr and under), we're currently forming a pretty clear ascending triangle that, if it plays out the way it "should" (no guarantees, of course - hence why I've labeled this one as "neutral"), would break to the upside some time tomorrow with a target of around 9.4K, which would be a very understandable and logical and expected first...

CryptoTraderMark10

70% increase in shorts over the last 24 hours. People thinking the top is in and shorting when then trend is clearly to the upside. The shorters provide liquidity for major players and market movers, essentially fueling the big buys and big price surges. The same thing happens on parabolic downtrends. People try to catch the bottom long before the bottom is in and...

CryptoTraderMark10

I've been following a trend line that goes all the way back to 2013 and has proven, time and again, to be a place of major resistance and support. Before going into our parabolic uptrend in 2017 it rejected price five times, each time sending it down 30 to 40%, but once it was broken there was a huge surge. Most recently it supported price for a month before the...

CryptoTraderMark10

We exploded upward from that big ascending triangle (on the daily) and finally broke upward from our descending channel and are now hitting resistance at the top of the daily ichi cloud. The final "target" for this run should be somewhere in the teal box area, where we would form another lower high on the weekly chart (although I think it will be one of those...

CryptoTraderMark10

We're currently forming a symmetrical triangle, although on the daily it's making an ascending triangle. If we break the black lines, the next leg will take us to the purple lines. Obviously the better trade is to the upside. As always - it can go either way. Never trust a permabear or a permabull or someone who "sides" with the bulls or the bears. Cheers...

CryptoTraderMark10

As you can see, the 200 EMA (purple line) on the Daily chart is still stifling the price and has been stifling it since the infamous "China" surge in late October. But what's even more troubling is that the 200 MA (black line) has now gotten a negative slope, and the last time that happened was in June 2018, and we all know what happened next. If we can break...

CryptoTraderMark10

If we look at the weekly chart we can see the clear pattern since our peak to 14K. We go down, touch the bottom of the channel, have a quick reaction rally back up to the top, get all the retail traders really bullish, get a fake-out wick to the upside, and then come back down. Of course, silliness ensues and people start assigning ridiculous fundamental...

CryptoTraderMark10

I've been presenting the bearish case. I should also present the bullish case because there's ALWAYS both a bearish and bullish side to every BTC consolidation period. Remember: BTC can ALWAYS go in either direction and there will always, in retrospect, be some kind of pattern or technical analysis to back up the move. The bullish case is that we've already...

CryptoTraderMark10

I published a very similar chart to this one early yesterday, at the peak of everyone's bullishness. Every time we've hit the bottom of the channel we've had a quick reaction rally back up to the top, followed by a roughly 30% drop back down to the bottom of the channel over the following month. I could of course be wrong, but for the moment I see no reason...

CryptoTraderMark10 Updated 

Just something to consider if you are thinking of FOMOing in right now... We're hitting strong resistance in the form of major movings averages on multiple higher time frames, including the monthly 21 EMA and the daily 200 EMA. Also - the 4hr cycle channel oscillator is topping out, and you can see what's happened every time it has done that thus far in this...

CryptoTraderMark10 Updated 

Obviously there are many reasons to be bullish right now, but it's hard not to rule out this just being another touch of the top of our descending channel and a return to its base.

CryptoTraderMark10

The BLX weekly chart is providing a very clear picture of the (likely) timing for Bitcoin's next big move, the move that will break us out of the downward channel we've been in since our 14K peak, and which direction we can expect that move to be in according to the price action over the next 2-4 weeks. You can see that the volume signature is projecting BTC to...

CryptoTraderMark10

There's no reason to get over-excited right now. BUT - I drew those arrows on the monthly chart a few days ago. By March there is an extremely high probability of us breaking down from this formation into the abyss or rocketing out of it to potentially new highs (eventually - not saying it would happen quickly). For now - with an emphasis on FOR NOW - we...

CryptoTraderMark10

BTC had a nice little dump to kick off 2020 but as you can see, per the 2-day Bitstamp chart, we are still just ranging, and the volume profile for the current consolidation period has us breaking out of this area some time around Jan. 15. As I write this we are having a short squeeze, which we were due for given the sudden surge in shorts we saw (I think about a...

CryptoTraderMark10

COULD the bulls pull it off? Perhaps. It's Bitcoin - so anything is possible. But it's certainly NOT looking good. The first stop/bivouac, if we drop, will be at our prior weekly low at around 6400. But the one AFTER that is at around 4K.... GULP

CryptoTraderMark10

Looking at the volume profile of the consolidation period we've been in since late November, we should expect our next big move to come some time in the third week of January. This also coincides with when this current sideways price action will be hitting the upward sloping long-term trend-line and also getting close to hitting the other side of the...

CryptoTraderMark10

Ever since Bitcoin's plunge from 9.5K in late October, the price has been supported by the 4-day 200 EMA (purple line) and stifled/resisted by the 200 SMA (green line). If we break the 200 EMA, to the downside, it means we will be breaking that long-term upward sloping trend line and breaking down from this huge channel, and I believe we will go lower than our...