CurtisM

CurtisM

This is a simple but powerful chart for you to set up and follow. Notes on chart.

CurtisM

Is this price channel a large bull flag or is it the start of a falling price trend? The answer will come with either a closing price somewhere around 88 on the upside or a closing price below what has now become an important support. Until then, the chart looks bullish for now but the Q's will need to get above the 20MA at around $87 to confirm the recent move...

CurtisM

First and most important, I am assuming that $SPX will close out April in the red per the bearish rising wedge confirmation in the daily $SPX chart. If this assumption proves wrong, then I'll just update the chart at the end of May and see where we are then. In other words, while the monthly chart currently indicates problems ahead, it is all Speculation at this...

CurtisM

The A-B-C down extension finished on Friday (they don't have hit exactly) and when this happens you have to expect something else. I expect Q's will bounce and perhaps rise to the upper trend line. Should this bounce materialize, then it could last up to a week but I do believe the bounce will fail and the Q's will head south again, taking out the important swing...

CurtisM

Q's down again on heavy volume as sellers just want out and price isn't that important. All the shorter term MA's are pointing down and the 20MA has crossed down through the 50MA. That hasn't happened since July of 2013, but by the time that did happen Q's had bottomed and were on the way up so that 20/50 cross didn't mean much. This time is different. At this...

CurtisM

Down on the day on heavy volume. Down on the week, the month and the year. Is there a message here? I'm treating today the same way IBD would call a bottom. First you have strong move up and then within 3-5 days, or so, you have a rally of close to 2% to confirm the up move. Obviously, I'm looking at the inverse of this with today's 2% decline confirming the...

CurtisM

Per John Murphy, a rising wedge in a uptrend is very rare and thus a very important pattern to be aware of and watch closely. Murphy is all about confirmation so should $SPX break below this pattern, then its bearishness would be confirmed with 2-3 closes below the lower line. A confirmation of this type would surely lead to a test of the lower rising price...

CurtisM

Q's down big on four times average volume which suggests selling exhaustion for now. We could easily see a bounce to the falling trend line and maybe another failure to break through. I haven't drawn in the lower, parallel trend line due to clutter, but this looks like a big bull flag to me. We drop into the 82's and then this morphs into a down trend. At this...

CurtisM

I have to tell you that I was confused by the 5pt gap up in the S&P futures last Sunday evening. I was further confused by the intensity of the rallies on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. When you see a rally of 33pts over three days on nothing, you just have to wonder. Because the P/C ratio dropped to .66 and the $TRIN closed at .64 on Wednesday, I did expect a...

CurtisM

Simple. Q's close above $90 and look for for a test of swing high of 91.15. If this happens, then Q's will reassert themselves as market leader and will drag all other indexes along with them. I don't really know if this is going to happen but based on the action over the last two days and with $SOX index closing at a new high, it looks likely. GL

CurtisM

Well, $SPX didn't break out of the symmetrical triangle pattern, though it is back inside that pattern and now closer to the apex. So it's going to break out soon, one way or the other. And not much sign of window dressing, though we still have Monday so we'll just have to wait and see how it goes early next week. On the chart, I have marked in blue previous...

CurtisM

For the first time in as long as I can remember, $SPX slightly outperforming $NDX and $COMPQ. It isn't much but it's been the other way around for a long time. $SPX now nearing the apex of a symmetrical triangle that has formed over the past 12 or so sessions. This is considered a continuation pattern and that means that $SPX should break up and out of the...

CurtisM

86 of the $NDX's 100 components closed in the red today. Amazing that Q's only closed down 1.14. Q's now in confirmed A-B-C down after clearly breaking the B point. I've drawn in the possible course they might take on their way to the $83.50 area but I really have no idea about whether or not they're going to bounce. They might just drop straight down, though it...

CurtisM

$SPX up 25pts on the week and 7pts on the month. All the moving averages are in the right order and, with the exception of Wilder's ADX, all oscillators are rising. $SPX has met resistance right around 1884. The first time it went up there on 3/7, it did so with 2.2 billion shares and then closed 6pts off that intra-day high. This past Friday, $SPX pushed up to...

CurtisM

IBB down 4.7% on Friday on heavy volume which may have been related to Op/Ex. Selling in biotech issues weighed heavily on the $NDX/QQQ's, which was also under pressure from SYMC's big drop, and then all that selling apparently spooked the rest of the markets. While this may just be a one day sell-off for the QQQ's and others, I don't believe this is the case for...

CurtisM

Out of NUGT and JNUG for now. Gold has had a nice run and I don't think it's over, but gold has clearly come under pressure the last few days. I will be watching for one or both of two things to happen before I reenter. I want to see the CCI drop below -100. Once that happens I will watch for positive divergence in CCI and/or for CCI to rise back above -100 as a...

CurtisM

On February 6th, $SPX pushed back inside the rising price channel, which was at 1760, and then confirmed this was real on the following day. This put in place the possibility of a measured move of 120pts based on the width of the channel. At the time, I thought $SPX would push to the upper channel line at around 1900, exceeding the 120pt target, but obviously that...

CurtisM

$SPX has now closed 3 days below rising wedge pattern and came down today on 2.4 billion shares when about 2.1 billion is average volume.$SPX closed fairly close to the lows of the day and this suggests that we will see lower lows from here. Perhaps not tomorrow, but before we see a significant bounce, I expect $SPX will drop to the 50% Fib retrace, now at 1809....