CurtisM

CurtisM

On March 1st, I put up a chart of IBB in which I pointed how, during pull backs, IBB likes to visit its 50MA. Now, as of the close of trading on 3/13, IBB is within easy reach of the 50MA, which is also in the area of the .764 Fib retrace level. IBB is also moving within the confines of a Bull Flag pattern and has broken topside out of similar patterns in the...

CurtisM

One day below the rising wedge pattern shouldn't be seen as a bearish signal, although it is a concern. If $SPX should close two days below the rising wedge pattern, then that would be a clear red flag signal, but even so, $SPX could bounce and resume its uptrend without much trouble. In the meantime, it wouldn't be out of the question for $SPX to pull back to the...

CurtisM

$SPX currently moving within confines of a rising wedge, which is a bearish formation. But everything needs to be confirmed, so if $SPX rises up out of the pattern and keeps moving toward the upper channel line, then that would negate this pattern. This needs to be watched over the next several days to make sure $SPX does in fact break out of the top and negate...

CurtisM

The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index consists of 122 stocks and out of those 122 only 6 closed green on Friday, 02/28/2014. 9 of those 122 stocks are also in the $NDX/QQQ where they collectively make up 12% of that index, slightly more than AAPL. From the beginning of 2013 until the most recent closing high, IBB has run up 100% and has been an important factor in the...

CurtisM

In December of 2013, I put this chart together using the 3, 9, & 12 EMA's. I went back to 1998 and the idea was to calculate the % difference between the 3EMA and the 9EMA at market turning points in hopes of finding an absolute number that would suggest a market top was in place or was forming. That didn't work out, but what I discovered is that when you have a...

CurtisM

The green arrows on the chart mark the times where the CCI rose back up through the -100 level, generating a fresh 'buy' signal. Notice also that on about the same day, the Fisher Transform gave an 'end of cycle' signal with a bullish cross. To eliminate clutter, I didn't mark all of the CCI 'sell' signals or bearish Fisher 'end of cycle' signals, but notice...

CurtisM

After climbing up near the measured move target price based on the pennant breakout, NUGT went into the expected consolidation, filling the gap in the process. Now that this consolidation appears to be complete, I am looking for NUGT to climb up to the 200MA in the $57/$58 area. Could take a while but getting to that level would indicate that what to some may look...

CurtisM

Candles similar to the one I'm calling a potential Wyckoff upthrust appear all the time. Most of the time they represent a day of indecision and just become another candle as the markets move on. You will often see these type of candles, spinning tops, gravestone doji's, shooting stars, etc, at turning points but you can find them all over the charts and they are...

CurtisM

You don't move 45pts in one week and not get extremely overbought. We even got a little more overbought on Tuesday with Zweig Breadth Thrust rising to 63.48 and the RSI's on the 60min charts of SPY, IWM, QQQ, and others, staying well above 70. We needed a cooling off period and maybe today's decline is enough. A pull back to the 20MA is not uncommon after a run...

CurtisM

Last week I pointed out that with the break out of the pennant formation, the measured move should take NUGT to the $54 area and NUGT came very close to that on Friday. And while I was looking for $54 to complete the measured move, I didn't mean or expect this to happen in one week. With Friday's gap up and doji, we have all the makings of an island reversal for...

CurtisM

$SPX up 41pts and 2.3% on the week. I do not expect a repeat, but I do expect that $SPX will break above and close above the previous swing high of 1850.84 by week's end. Since we are only 12pts away from 1850, then this shouldn't be too hard to accomplish in the four trading days next week. But first, we are extremely overbought short term. The RSI's on the...

CurtisM

We had a climax sell signal on Monday, the 3rd, with $NYUD:$NYUPV dropping to -18.43, one of the lowest oversold readings for this that I remember. Then on Wednesday we had a bottoming tail/hammer and the rest is history. We since have added 56pts to the $SPX and closed for two days back inside the one-year trend channel. We have also cleared the previous...

CurtisM

Pennants appear at about the halfway point of moves. To be conservative, I'm using $26 dollars as the break out from the down trend and then the previous peak high of 40.17 as the end of the move. This gives a move of $14 which is then added to $40. The measured move then becomes $54 which is the next target price. I don't expect this to be anything at all like...

CurtisM

Probably no secret, but we became very overbought today in 60min so just have to expect a consolidation Monday or some give back inorder to work off some of this overboughtness, IMHO, of course

CurtisM

SPY about to give fresh buy sig with a 13/34 EMA bullish cross. Surprised that it didn't happen today. Those EMA's should have a bullish cross tomorrow morning unless the employment #'s are really bad. I think the numbers won't matter unless they're really bad. Next and very important, and per my method, the 200EMA must turn up to confirm that we have morphed...

CurtisM

Is $SPX just building cause to push back above the trend line or is it just too weak and running out of steam? We got a bottoming tail or hammer today, your choice. That is the kind of candle you see at bottoms. For this candle to prove to be predictive, then $SPX will need to close above today's high of 1755 and even better would be for $SPX to push up above...

CurtisM

We've broken the 1 year trend line and closed below it on huge volume. This breakage needs at least one more day with the $SPX closing below the trend line to validate the breakage. Some would give it two more days just to be sure. The implication is that once a channel line is broken then you measure the width of the channel and subtract that number from the...

CurtisM

$SPX off 65.77pts & 3.56%. No big deal at this time. Just another dip buying opportunity, right? Maybe. On the chart, I've marked in two bars that represent what I think will happen in the next two months. I do believe we will see a green candle for February but it will be a struggle. For March I expect another red candle. After that, no clue. And, of course, I...