Da_Prof

Da_Prof

The Coinbase Premium Indictor shows the CBP risk is high. The previous times the CBP premium has reached these levels, CRYPTOCAP:BTC generally started a range or downtrend.

Da_Prof

During this current BTC cycle, major uptrends in global liquidity have corresponded to major uptrends in the market 72ish days later. The last major uptrend in liquidity is about to run its course, pause, and then downtrend. If this relationship holds, we are at or near at least a pause in the local up trend. I have my popcorn ready to see if this plays out....

Da_Prof

According to past cycles, there is still a lot of room to the upside for the risk metric.

Da_Prof

The BTSI has signaled a high risk area for BTC. These can happen and price can still go up for a while until a bear deviation. The bars pattern is what happened the last time.

Da_Prof

Similar to March 8th timeframe (i.e., the previous local top). Some BTI top indicators have started to come close to fully triggering. Currently the NUPL and Realized Price (RP) indicators are getting near a top signal. No indicator in the BTI has fully triggered yet, but it would be wise to watch the BTI closely.

Da_Prof

The coinbase premium again signaled a "buy". See the previous times a green signal has printed on the indicator.

Da_Prof

Hey all. Just coded a meme coin dominance indicator. Please DM me if you see any issue with it. Thoughts: If this is the meme coin super cycle (which I subscribe to), I'm thinking we go to near or over 10% MEME.D. My prediction is that once Tradingview creates the symbol for MEME.D, it will be the top :) The chart has the MEME.D indicator, BTC.D, and OTHERS.D...

Da_Prof

The meme coin gains indicator was updated to include all the fancy new meme coins in the top 100 market cap coins. SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:ORDI and NASDAQ:SATS were removed based on categorization by CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap. I used CoinMarketCap to determine the top 100. My opinion is that the indicator is much more useful now than in the previous cycle...

Da_Prof

The Coinbase premium has been a very good "long" swing trade indicator recently. It just triggered. I'm not fading this.

Da_Prof

Some individual indicators in the BTC Swing Trade Indicator are getting overheated. While the BTSI is not in the risk trigger zone, the RSI, NVT Golden Cross and the SOPR have flashed "sell" signals in the last couple days. Do with that what you will.

Da_Prof

While nothing is perfect, the movement of global money supply this cycle has forecasted bitcoin price movements exceptionally well. Previous cycles, money supply more overlapped than predicted, except when the 2020 massive increase in money supply led BTC price higher. The lag between global money supply highs and lows and BTC highs and lows this cycle has been...

Da_Prof

It is well-known that BTC is a child of liquidity, but I'm not sure how if people realize how much when liquidity is measured at Global Money Supply - USD adjusted (indicator by SirChub). The last two cycles and the current one are plotted. As you can tell, the relationship is strong. In recent years, rapid liquidity increases have lead increases in the BTC price....

Da_Prof

The Bitcoin Swing Trade Indicator triggered a buy signal. None of the individual indicators have triggered a bottom, but the overall "risk" is below the trigger line. Note: I know it is unfair to publish this idea when the BSTI isn't available to y'all, but what are you gonna do? It isn't quite ready for prime time, but I wanted to make y'all aware of the signal.

Da_Prof

Hey all...I have published the macro top and bottom indicators for BTC. I wanted to create a swing trade indicator (on the daily for month-long swings). I need your help to find two more good daily swing trade indicators for BTC. I want to replace the Moon phases indicator (it fires too much) and a Fed Liquidity Cycle indictor I coded based on @TomasOnMarkets...

Da_Prof

The BTB indicator is working again. Thanks for your patience. Enjoy. Note: The BTB even had a minor bottom signal in this range, right around July 7, 2024 (green box). Not the lowest low of the range, but just before the likely capitulatory bottom.

Da_Prof

Some Grade A, premium BTC hopium for you: If the 2017 cycle price action is reduced down slightly (price, not timing) and lined up with the first peak of the 2021 cycle double top (in April 2021), the price action on a macro scale is eerily similar, especially for the bottom range and the run up. Recently, price overextended from the 2017 fractal during the ETF...

Da_Prof Updated 

The hash rate capitulation indicator is showing full-on capitulation of the hash rate spurred by minors needing to pull back on the hash following the halving. The timing for price peaks following HRC flashes have been different, but HRC flashes are generally followed by increased prices (sometimes multiple Xs). I'd say the probability is very high that we will...

Da_Prof

The first push of BTC to over $70K in this bull cycle, the risk was becoming overheated quickly. The BTI indicator risk was around 7 to 7.25 and some indicators (e.g., the NUPL) were getting close to triggering. Now the overall risk is at a much healthier 5.59. Continued chop in this area will help further reset the individual BTI top indicators, but ultimately,...