DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Decay strongly favors the contract holder. Notice even in the course of one day, with VIX hanging steady around 35-36, this thing lost $1 over 6 hours. See most insightful post credit to Hungry_Hippo, attached! Traded for $24 in the AM then price relaxed as VIX fell, on viral scare news at 14:38 VIX jumped back to 36 but UVXY reached... 23! This thing fades...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Simple idea. Getting bounce EOD 2/28 with follow-thru in ES Futurz overnight, Asia improving in early trade. Black Swan event seems less likely now with VIX forming shooting star on Friday. Massive volatility spike with extreme bearishness typical of bottoms. Market internals on Friday (A/D, new ATH issues at only 4 on NYSE, etc) equal to 24 Dec 2018 minicrash....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

B-D a perfect Fibo 1.618 extension to 1.05 x X-A in double top. This is extremely Bearish. Megaphone pattern suggests continuation of correction to tar zone ~27600. Might expect a last push to ATH in April after target zone achieved. We got divergence in Transports DJT and Russel 2k RUT, both lower with mixed markets- toppy! This is not investing advice; post is...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Pure WAG and sheer speculation. Absolutely NOT investing advice! This post is strictly for your amusement only; intended purely to entertain, so enjoy! NB: Near-term some sort of correction is due, index trading >2SD above 50DMA, RSI overbought near 80; absent a Fed Hike on 28/29 Jan, expect a modest pullback. The monster break of Feb 2018 is unlikely to repeat...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. US 30 trending in pitchfork straight railroad track pattern. Bear signal on 12/30/19; comes at or near completion of 5-wave Elliott impulse. Expect Bear down until it taps the lower rail; a bounce from there into Springtime will finish at 30K, intersection of top rail. Short until ABC completes; then all-in Long. This isn't investing advice;...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Got a typical reactionary rally after breakdown from rising wedge. Price moves back to kiss TL then rejects into C leg. This is a minor shallow correction of perhaps ~3%; a pause on road to ultimate ATH. Gaps to fill down to 2949 on SPX will be the best yardstick for pivot. Buy all-in when price fills that gap IMO. Donald will make some deal with China soon as he...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Getting higher lows and support inside the narrow wedge channel at and above 3095. This can break anytime, but it looks and feels like we could get a retest of ATH price at top of channel before it rolls over, to give a double top. RSI and volume diverge but often get the retest on low volume and relatively weak price action. Hanging on to my seat atm, watch,...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

We have breakout of the consolidation pattern and bullish RSI. Look back (scroll left) to see the double top Sep 20 - Oct 03 2018; note RSI diverged with lower reading on ATH 3 Oct even as price made higher high. We knew then it would sell. We don't have that yet a year later; we have an ATH; but RSI still not maxed c/w prior highs, I do expect a pullback to...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

In Mid-Nov there is a critical inflection point at 27300 at support from consolidation zone and rising TL in this bullish impulse. At this writing, DJIA index rests just at or above long TL reaching back to Jan 2018 top. Equities have advanced for >5 weeks. A small, brief pullback seems likely. If it gives a price relaxation back to the breakout zone at 273,...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Update to prior idea. note the triple top Fibonacci ratio is a perfect 1.05 in both valleys. Got a shooting star up here. Rollover imminent IMO! Short at your own risk and don't blame me if it fools us again! This is just an observation, not advice. GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

OF course this is pure guesswork and sheer speculation. Maybe the ATH is already in on Friday. Although futurez are up as I write this, their fair values point to nearly the same prices we saw near the close Fri PM. I marked this chart idea as Neutral, although it's really short-term bearish and longer-term bullish, until it becomes Bearish again in 2020. A lot...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Simple idea. In May & Aug VIX tapped 12 briefly before volatility returned. Here we are again. There is a bullish trend ongoing with successively weaker spats of volatility. Next jump might tap 18-20. The interval of rotation appears to be three months; May +3mo > Aug +3mo > November. Prices at ATH; rotation soon seems likely. This is rank speculation and in no...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Historical view. What's in store? ATL: 8.5. Typical reversal zone: ~10-11. Price now: ~13. This year we've had volatility spikes when VIX <12-13. Are we in for another frantic bull run that crushes VIX sub-10? Historically after three rate cuts markets rise 5-10%. Will we see SPX 3300?! If so, shorts will be just destroyed. Something to ponder... I've been...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Been shorting too soon as usual, but the 7-wave Triple combo is a rare and confusing pattern. Overnight ES futurez tapped the intersection of long-term TL and near-term TL in this wedge; they converged at 3056. China says they were just kidding and wont get serious with the Great Donald, such a big surprise! Expect to fill the gaps from past...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all; a few salients: Long Trend: The entire movement of late 90's up to 2009 was a giant Zig-Zag correction of the 90's Bull Market. The 2000 dot-com bubble burst provoked a mighty B wave lasting several years, that ultimately culminated in the 2008/09 crash, when prices fell below 2000 levels in a great 'h'. The current cycle began 09 March 2009 with...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Trades in a descending wedge channel all year. Former R now = S. NB: 0.618 Fib repeatedly rejected. Blue box marks pivot target; may reject sooner.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Trades exactly along the TL formed by Sep double tops. Just a guess- maybe it will sell a bit from here. I bought 10 each SPY 300P Nov 25s; QQQ Nov 29 194s and DIA Nov 22 268 puts. In $5 bear spreads against Friday's weeklies, reduces cost by ~10%. If it sells great; if not, collect the weeklies. This is NOT advice; trade at your own risk! GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Look under the twin arrows at the Doji how they pierce TL then reject- four times now. In downtrend along upper edge of triangle pennant; flagpole bottom half ~ equal to upper in these patterns. Just an idea; trade at your own risk; GLTA!