DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Simple idea. Triangle is ominous as these typically break thru the floor of wedge, although a rally is not out of realm of possibility, seems less likely every day. Fourth trip to bottom of the wedge usually breaks the floor. There is that gap to fill, which might occur Tues; if not, 1/8 gaps never fill, so maybe not a good bet IMO. Getting more bearish daily....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

US Equities in downtrend off ATH from July. Price action strongly mimics last year's selloff behavior. Pull chart right to see the 2018 Megaphone. Targets in chart are determined by TL defined by these Megaphones. Price labels are estimates and actual prices of course will vary; past performance is no guarantee of future results! 2019 Megaphone is Bigger and the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

There it is; double bubble under the TL; test of resistance. Critical juncture: may reject from Tl and sink further, or breakout higher to rally. Maximum risk now; holding no positions. Longer term: Extremely Bearish. Trade at your own risk! GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. IF the TL holds today expect vigorous retrace, a fool's rally; then the End. Trade at your own risk, this is not financial advice. GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Here we go again! Expect bearish next week, brief relief rally after FOMC, possible retest ATH; then the real drawdown. Just another crackpot idea; trade at your own risk! GLTA!!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Just an idea. Not sayin' this is goin' down; maybe we already saw ATH today on 7/15. But, maybe a brief pullback to lower channel TL culminating on 7/23 will provoke a feeding frenzy coupled with FOMC rate cut to push the darn thing to 30K. Could easily rise another 6-8% in euphoria and carefree complacency that prevails atm. If this plays out the subsequent...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Had a Fib convergence on 10/08. If index holds this level expect turn to higher price leading up to FOMC. 0.25 rate cut is already baked in. Not betting on this one. IMO index is approaching the ATH and Bear market to follow. This pennant points at 23 July next convergence. Too soon to short IMO; watch, wait, go to the beach! Trade at your own risk. I'm out on...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Happy 5th of July! Ominous portent in the candlesticks. Get confirmation on the close and Monday's price action- imminent throwover from ATH IMO. Trade at your own risk; GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Terrific gap up unlikely to fully close on the day. Enthusiasm is nuts. IMO gonna get to 300 in July. Probly just a gamble but as former resistance in 258 - 262 area may turn to support, expect higher- probly in the day, certainly this week. GLTA! Trade at your own risk- this isnt advice. Pure speculative gambling at this point!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Just an idea; I'm not sure about this but I expected a LOT more selling, and it's not happening. An ABC countertrend surge may be in progress; if so, we'll have a new ATH this summer. There is NO rational or logical reason for this to occur; therefore I consider it highly likely. IT's exactly what happened in 1929... Fascinating that Fib time projects...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

AMD: a Momentum stock with decent fundamentals. Forward-looking PE is still ~35 but that never stopped the FAANGS from reaching stupid valuations. Chip stocks took it on the chin this week after Broadcomm tanked the sector on sentiment selling. IMO the street will quickly forget about it and buy Mo-Mo. FOMC dot-plot and Powell speech will set tone for the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

See chart. Got a big cup from Wednesday with handle/cup on Thursday and smaller handle forming in PM Thursday. H&S yesterday made me close shorts; got another one today.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Terrific rally to the 0.786 Fibo; looks like a slamdown at 290 today. We all expected a rally, but this one blew us away. Now we are back in the middle; higher prices but year. Pullback seems imminent; look carefully, however, you may find at least three similar Doji's that fooled us. Cautiously shorting in anticipation of trade and Fed combo worries leading up to...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks like a crash setup. Powerful bearish divergence in oil - dropping while gold rockets. Last seen this divergence in 2000, 2008 just weeks before the crashes. Probably not a good idea to sell puts short right now... Fool's rally going for a day or two; if we see a pinbar that would be identical confirmation pattern we saw in Aug 2008. Rally could get as high...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

See TLs in chart. Might be setting up for a bear rally like the two spikes we saw in Nov & Dec; or might still head lower to the long-term TL beneath. Appears like the A-B-C pattern may be nearing completion; unless it's another fakeout and we enter a real Wave 3 downtrend... so chancy now. Expected a bit lower but no massive selloff yet; market holding its...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says it best. Got an A-B-C in progress. Very clear downtrend, A-leg in defined channel, high volume in selling, small volume buying. Definite 5-wave Elliott impulse forming in the reactionary B wave. Fifth and final wave should push to the 0.786 Fibo at 2905. Then enter C. This ABC is in turn part of a larger zig-zag correction in progress since Jan...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Broke channel on Bear Flag, pumped back up to TL, expect throwover. Textbook example: Ref: Murphy; Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Fig 4.10a; "Example of Rising Support Line becoming resistance. After it has been broken to the downside, usually a support TL will function as resistance on subsequent rallies."

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Not advice. Not a prediction. Just see a very expensive stock of company selling overpriced gadgets trading right at 0.62 Fibo after massive selloff bounce. Might be fakebreak after first rejection from the TL shown price edged up over the TL. If breakdown below, expect retest of TL then ultimate rejection. If ER miss, going straight off. If...