DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Busy chart. US 30 is trending down since 26 Feb 19, and 22 March Price Shock was pivotal IMO: Note the long TL at bottom reaching back to 1996. Scroll R/L to see the extension. IMO this line will define the bottom for the 2020 bear market. Note the two-year 'Trump' TL which has enjoyed a parabolic run-up since election and corporate tax cuts. This curve is...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Let's get confirmation with a nice juicy red Bear Engulfing Doji. Sand P pivoted EXACTLY at 0.786 on 2812 today- fantastic! Pos: Shorted QQQ, Long TECS. Not investment advice, trade at your own risk, but it's where I placed my bets. Gaps tend to get filled, if gap up fills by gap down, we get island reversal with a graveyard... We at the end of...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

All the good news is out. Prices pierced and fell back to TL. Price at 0.62 Fibo now. Sand P also at Fibo just a hair above 2700. Bear flag flying at tip of pennant. Can it get higher? Of course! 'Pumptards' are capable of infinitely irrational behavior. But will it? That is the question, to be or not to be more! IMO not to be more. Just an idea; the .62 Fibo...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks like it's headed higher and the TL is not far above. Like many others, I expected a double bottom or a retrace but events have ruled that out for now. This will be an opportunity to close out pension funds before it breaks again. Tar: 25040 or bust! Don't invest on this idea its just my idea, not advice. GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Caution is in order, this rally has faked us out twice already, looking near pivot, then jumping higher. Bears been expecting a double bottom formation and still are waiting. On the daily chart Sand P has an Elliott Wave bullish impulse form developing, rather than the ABC many contributors have suggested. The segment labeled (3) is quite a bit longer than the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. So many contributors with great ideas about what we might expect. Just my 2c. It never goes straight down but makes short squeeze traps along the way. The runup to 24k was a terrific squeeze, rejected at 0.50 Fibo- exactly. Be cautious, short the rallies, don't plunge as it swings wildly and can squeeze any day. Remember- gaps tend to get filled!...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. updated prior post with corrected line positions given interval price changes. C wave length and duration mimics A wave. The H&S pattern appears to be an extension of the correction but note it is also a pennant, or continuation pattern. The trend: still down, entering a fifth intermediate of primary third wave. expect double bottom to retest 233...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Wow what an amazing jump! Does it mean the bears are back in hibernation? Doubtful. Boxing Day's record 1k rally was just an impressive a-leg of an a-b-c minor correction after a punishing 3rd Intermediate wave in the current bear wave. Trend is still Bear! Note in chart the abc pattern extension to 0.50 Fibo coincides with the 0.618 Fib retracement of the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Merry Christmas Traders! We find SPY near the termination of a minor fifth subwave v of Intermediate wave (3), which in turn is part of a larger primary wave One. Primary Wave One should terminate near SPY ETF price 219 on/about 31 Dec 18, after a 28-day decline from 3 Dec wave origin. Chart describes constituent components of Primary Wave One, including a...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Typically after a flag or pennant breaks a rally sets up to retrace the breakdown and is rejected from lower trendline. Extreme bearishness is prevalent. Expect Christmas Crash. Sorry Santa! Just an idea, not investment advice, GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Gaps tend to get filled. After that... hmmm. Trade at your own risk this isn't advice, just a half-baked idea...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Twain observed in Pudd'nhead Wilson; "October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February." How about a December crash? If this model plays out Santa will by cryin'. Notice rejection this week at TL. Downtrend continues....

DaddySawbucks Updated 

JW if this 3-day rally is another fakeout, has earmarks of a bear flag rally, very hard to call a bottom yet, consolidating, fluctuating. Trading at area where price has provoked bear reaction, the EW model suggests we might expect retest of lows, and possibly a lower low. Filling the gap down from 249 was expected, top of the gap = pivot & resistance; breakout...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart self-explains. Could sure get lower but behavior suggests a bottom retest may be in at 24421. Wait on 4hr to confirm it. Could get a strong lift into December off these lows to form a right shoulder before the bears really tear into it. Unpredictable now. Just an idea not trading advice- trade at your own risk! GLTA!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Ominous portents. Broadening top in September led to the microcrash in October and US Equities have been struggling since. November usually one of the best months for stocks, has only been a down month in 3 years of past 20; those were in Bear Markets... Some very fine textbook chart formations appearing over past few months. The Zig-Zag Correction has led to...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

We thought the downdraft in October marked "ABC" on chart was the correction. But... We got another pivot at the .62 Fibo, where B turned, now X turned again. Looks like we got a larger WXY wave. ABC was the W that formed first bottom. If this pattern completes, expect -33 on the ABC leg to approximate the X-Y leg. This would put Sand P down around 252. For...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Midterms Tuesday. From MW: "Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Panic abated somewhat, still chance for another selloff around elections this week, expect explosion after, or just straight into next leg up. Tentatively looks like we might have an Elliott wave 1 past week, with a 2 on Friday, might sell a bit more Mon/Tues; if it plays out, then 3 will be magnificent. Bull isn't done running yet, but 2019 will likely bring...