DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Today's 400pt lift in Dow was unconfirmed by volume which declined as price rose. VOLUME DIVERGENCE violates basic Dow Theory: The session volume in each day's trading reveals nearly all the session volume was traded before the thin air lift at the end of day. A move against trend must be confirmed by increasing volume to be a true trend change, else it is...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Nearly there. Probably another rough day or two to get crushed down to support and complete the Zig-Zag correction (WXY). Elliott ABC wave near support. Expect a hammer Doji, a deep spike with reaction lift. Maybe Tues/Weds. Who knows, utterly unpredictable atm. Spy might get down to 253. Nas- who knows?! If index breaks and closes below the blue pivot support...

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If rally fail to break the descending TL here look for rejection around 24920 - 24980. Could go off really hard if no breakout. Just an idea. Let's see... This is not investment advice. Trade at your own risk- GL!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Index might be in an expanded irregular flat EW, with descending wedge an indicator of diminishing supply as the bears grind down to the 0.62 Fibo retrace line. In Elliott Wave theory, in a strong bull market the ABC correction 'C' wave can terminate above the bottom of A, and may appear as an expanded flat correction, rather than a deeper C that carries below...

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Just an idea. Not sayin this is goin down like this but I'm afraid it could play out this way. Breakdown thru the neckline will signal sell. Rejected retest will confirm it. IF this goes down, then the bull is over. Prices are just darn high. Stupid high. Fear may soon overcome greed; if so, hope will be dashed. Here's a Forex link for the pattern. Break...

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Submitted for your consideration and amusement. At the signpost up ahead- the next stop: the Twilight Trading Zone. The Century TL reaching back to 1915 before US entry into the Great War, projects true US equities valuation at a nominal PE. Absent FAANG inflation and PEs discounting earnings until the 22nd century, Dow fair value is a little over 2k. A 90%...

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We got a symmetric triangle in the 1hrs on 10/17 with arrowhead exactly on the 0.50 Fibo retrace line. Pretty spooky and not yet Halloween. In chart an ABC EW correction wave shows a suggested pattern IF this Dog is gonna lie down again it will be soon- make or break. Seems an unlikely coincidence that we got a stalled rally exactly at 0.50. Call me crazy...

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Fibo 0.62 retrace from Mar/Apr lows to the Sep high intersects lower support trendline at 24750. Lower is possible, but... just sayin'. See Chart: res ipse loquitur. The downdraft should stop and pivot somewhere between the two support lines in chart. Should. Might. Expect a 0.50 retrace up from the pivot before next move. Expect another flashcrash to test the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Badly oversold. In the chart. Expect some retracement of Wedsday meltoff. This not investment advice just an idea, good luck!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Dow finding support near the trendline risky to short now could bull out of downtrend or break further on more news surprises all risky atm, be carefull! If it breaks under probly won't be real hard; support at 26100 would be a long opportunity. Last break to 25800 could retest but who knows?! Trade at your own risk this isn't investment advice, good luck!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chance the bull will continue soon look how it grinds along the trendline. Dangerous place to short in my humble opine. Just sayin. Good luck! This post purely educational not advice. Trade at your own risk!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks like the bulls are not done yet. This EW model projects a possible new high for Dow. Not saying it's going that far but it sure could. Any hint of a positive comment or encouraging word from FOMC this week about future rates will ignite another leg up on this breakout rally. They are buying the dips. Monday's grind off took index down to weekly support,...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

See the chart. See my bearish Gartley chart. Tariffs + FOMC rate hike + midterm elections = serious pressure on equities. Just starting down... This is not investment advice. It's pure guesswork, trade at your own risk.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Dow index has reached 1.618 Fibo on B-D arm 9/14 when pattern is drawn from closing price tops of candle bodies. A previous idea of mine showed it from top of wicks. This is necromancy, folks. Somewhere in between lies reality. Expect to see that on Monday or perhaps Tuesday next week. Should arrive Thursday at the latest. Target zone for pivot is depicted in...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Fourth press up to the line, pushback for a series of lower highs over past week. Bull trap. Expect correction to continue sharply soon. This post for education only, does not constitute investment advice, trade at your own risk; good luck!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

This is a complex ABC correction coming off the August highs. Did not quite get to the Gartley Fibo at 26268, but within 100 pts of it for Fibo 1.55 will have to do. There is a clear corrective 5 wave impulse evident in the A down leg, which is an organized, complex actionary impulse (labeled 1-2-3-4-5). This is not like the WXY pattern we saw in early August,...

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Last week's downleg was too deep and overlapping previous waves to be a '4'; the high on 29 Aug at 2916 was therefore the end of a (v); and we are in an ABC down trend. The pattern is more evident in US 30- see related post. Here Sand P formed a narrow descending chop channel, tightly defined, which appears to have found a bottom around 2864-2870. Fibo 0.618...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Starts to look like US 30 might fill the pattern in this bearish Gartley model after all. After 3 days of hard selling, pressure may abate and we ought to get a lift off the pivot at 26000, we saw strong resilience in US 30 over past sessions. In past two days, pattern of fierce selling relieved by bargain hunting in the afternoon. It appears that rotation is...