DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks

See chart. Double shooting atr Doji on the 1-hrs today. Bearish divergence. Media hype 'bulls charging nonstop!' Look out below...

DaddySawbucks

The slip-slide has begun. Could surprise us with a last-ditch retest from here, but futures are grim and price action = bearish. After an exhaustion gap - up we had a shooting star doji on the 2-hours 8/7 and an engulfing bear candle 8/8 end of day. High probability given these signals the Dow is in throwover. A sharp decline might ensue following rejection from...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bestimate projection for Dow going into August, tied with October for weakest month of the year. Coming off a strong rally in July, odds favor more volatility. Dow appears to be in a corrective, reactionary wave cycle: 'A' wave from first top 07/26 ran down to the flash crash Thursday 08/02 (Label 'W' of WXY reaction). Notice labels for larger primary trend are...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Many ideas posted about bullish up wave in the flag, but to get to that we need to have a down wave first. Only q? How low will it go? Three possibles depicted here in chart - Fibo .382, .50, .618 retracements. I'm confident we will get back to at least 250 support (former resistance) for a .382 pullback in an Elliott A wave. If investor confidence fails and we...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Breakout from symmetric triangle today on Donald's 'tradiness.' Bulls back in control. May rise nearly vertically now for a month. If GDP # good Friday will lock in the rally to recovery. Cover shorts while you still can. Donald's timing perfect: coincides with end of the 4th Elliot wave in bullish impulse, charted. Fifth wave will be a monster, expect +1200...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. Symmetrical triangle now in fifth wave and narrowing rapidly to apex; correction six months old- maybe time for recovery Index trading with support @25K (former resistance now becomes support) forming a descending wedge > suggests break to upside Cup formed from June - July now shallow pullback is forming the handle. A breakdown to lower support...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Adjusting my idea for what might lie ahead for the Dow. Forgive my many variations, but our picture is certainly confusing and some of us have already been whipsawed and blindsided twice: Dow is in an extended wave 5, approaching the upper edge of a symmetric triangle. a weakening Bullish formation forming over past 9 days, albeit on low volume. Breakout from...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Wave model projected 25076 on Dow got to 25070. Divergence in indices suggests flight to quality - dumping tech to buy blue chips, nervous toppy behavior. Can go higher but is due for a pullback and possibly a substantial drawdown. Wave C could carry to 23800 or lower. Could get a shooting star Tues to confirm topping. Other indexes already moving lower and...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Nice double top formed around the subwave 4 on bullish reactionary wave in downtrend correction... it's not over yet... media says 'going to the Moon' so look down Record high NDX and broad-market Nasdaq today, all-time high for MSFT now trading at market cap $800Billion... can you say bubbly?! Rate hikes- check; inflation - check; t-bill rate inversion - coming...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Wednesday's pullback looking like a subwave 4 now expect a final subwave 5 push to possibly 25100 pivot for short entry sometime next week; This last pushup will likely terminate correction wave B and usher in wave C downdraft. Anything can happen though; market is irrational- good luck!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

0709: +320; 0710: + 140; 0711: +60? Can they bull it through 25K? Maybe we get a shooting star Doji for short signal on Wednesday. Will soon see. Earnings season incoming: they bought the rumor, will sell the news. Runup in banks based on earnings expectations. Tech already tanking; hanging man Doji on Nas. Divergence in NDX +0.04% Dow + 0.58% SPX +.35% =...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Fellow traders, here is my updated idea on what the Dow might be in for, given unfolding patterns- although small Elliott 'microwaves' have appeared in the past week, they are chaotic and unreliable; instead we have what looks like a truncated flat contracting 'B' wave in A-B-C Elliott Wave correction; An argument can be made for a minor 1-2-3 impulse over past...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Guys & gals, sorry to disappoint but it's time to face reality. My Elliott Wave Theory projection is just not happening. This dog just won't hunt; not going to the Moon anytime soon, either. What we have going on is a classic bull pennant in bear market flag formation. It's probably (~94%) going to lead to continuation downtrend. see virtually identical Fig 2:...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Better detail updating my short squeeze idea. The wicks of candles over past four sessions form an arrowhead triangle. Usually these lead to BO in trend continuation (Wave A correction) but Wave B hasn't yet broken .38 Fibo. While certainly possible, these retraces most often yield at least .50 and usually .618 Fibos. BO down from here would be total...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Big downdraft from 25402 -> 24407 knocked 1395 pts off Dow for correction wave A. Reaction wave B ongoing now completed subwave 1(up), 2 (down) with the green hammer Doji Monday. Shown in more detail in this idea. Subwave 3 can carry index as high as 24686 before Wave 4 reaction retraces, possibly as low as 24440, but not below subwave 1 top. Subwave 5 can...

DaddySawbucks

Dow is entering Wave B of A-B-C correction from 5th Ellliot wave peaked at 24401 from the 1-2-3-4-5 impulse up waves in ascending wedge: Two inverted hammers last week suggest pivotal juncture and bullish bias; sub-micro analysis of wave B will show slight retracement early in July with lift into next week (1-2-3-4-5- micro pattern projected onto Wave B, has been...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

FIERCE SELLING INTO EVERY RALLY BUT FRIDAY'S RUNUP AT LEAST LEFT A LITTLE GREEN ON THE TABLE THE REACTION TO RISING WEDGE BO DOWN IS ONGOING, INDEX RESPECTED PRICE TRENDLINE THURSDAY ~24K EXPECT ANOTHER RALLY ATTEMPT ON 7/02. DON'T EXPECT IT TO GET MUCH ABOVE 24460, THE WEDGE MIDPOINT. TRADED RIGHT AT MIDPOINT ALL FRIDAY BEFORE DAYTRADER SELLOFF, WHICH WE SEE...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

TODAY WE SAW 24560 BRIEFLY, THEN SEVERE INTRADAY BREAK FAILED RALLY NEXT STOP 23800 AND BELOW. BREAKDOWN CONTINUES- POSSIBLE 1K SELLOFF IMMINENT; SECULAR BEAR MARKET BEGINNING NOW- FOR GOD'S SAKE BE CAREFUL TRADERS!