DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bull and Bear cases. Can go either way and all positions entail extreme risk at this juncture imo. IF last week's selloff TL rejection was a First Wave, THEN we going a lot lower real soon (projection in 5-EW). IF the Cup & Handle (so clear! notice line drawings) predominates, THEN look for a breakout above TL at 4k and retest with impulsive move higher. Notice...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

There it is. Plain & Simple. Consolidation = cup Retracement = handle Bull wave to follow > Double top?! Trade with Caution: Chart patterns like this are often deceptive and misleading!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Capitulation, VIX > 40+, the Big Dump of '23 maybe coming, and soon. .382 Fibo at 3908, NB: R/S line right there, 200 pips under last top. Unless JPowell indicates "No Time for Puts" on 1 Feb, expect a big disappointment. Bear will end when last bull throws in. No reason to think JP will suddenly pivot policy. He told us twice now the Fed wont ease up until...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Last week of price action generated a pennant. Typically these fly at half-staff on a flagpole. Not sayin it will; but it sure could. The measured move remains below the pennant. 300 pips to half-staff; 300 more would go to 3530 if it goes. Be carefull! GLTA

DaddySawbucks Updated 

A fierce face-ripping rally characteristic of bear markets caught shorts out on Winter Solstice, but should not be mistaken for anything than another bear rally. We have had a number of these all year long. This is no different. The .382 fibo aligns with 50 MA at the higher structure neckline, an ominous triple coincidence. IMO this move is consistent with an...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

H&S Inverted Pattern plays out. rejected 4100. This intense two day selling move looks and feels impulsive. Still could play out as an ABC but in this bear all the downs have been impulsive 5-waves. Being long is hi-risk imo. So this is just Wave 1. A bull trap is coming for a day or two. FOMC likely trigger for the 3rd Wave, final target 3660. After TL break,...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Massive blowoff move likely signals at or near another top. We have a three drives completing here near TL and just over the 200 DMA. The usual bottoming behavior is to form an inverted H&S. Look for it. Would not load up on longs here near exhausted RSI IMO. GLTA

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Chart says all. 200 DMA been the pushback all year. Probly gonna dump again to give us a right inverted H&S. The next rally will likely breakout above the 200 and really rocket. Be ready. Short-term short; longer-term long. NB: 0.618 Fibo was 4007 from the 16 Aug peak (not shown). trading slightly above it here, pushback Weds PM went to Fibo. Probly a good...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Crowning again. Top looks like June H&S before the swoon. Christmas Crash again? 2018 redux. Not betting on Santa this year. Massive gap to fill, a gap down will leave an island reversal. probly not a great time to get long imo. Cash is a good position.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

John Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets: Fig 4-10a. I post this every time I see it but most folks never read it. Get it, read it. Best advice I can offer. free here: cdn.preterhuman.net Breakdown of rising TL with retracement and rejection. Confirm 11/09, expect much lower real soon. John says we goin down for a measured move. A=200pips; C>200...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Sold pretty hard this week leading up to and after the FOMC. Getting some green in ES1 at these relative lows. Expect a retracement of at least .38, perhaps .50 Fibo. Given sentiment .62 is possible but unlikely IMO. Selloff likely to continue after a ~50% rally of 80-100 pips. Room below for more oversold. Lines mark S/R. Cannot say whether this is B wave in...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Someone asked me about TZA, the Russell 2k inverse bear fund etf. These inverse bear ETFs DO NOT CONTAIN STOCK. They hold only futures contracts, which continually EXPIRE, like options. These funds are effectively like put option substitutes, they suffer severe, continuous time decay. Please observe price since inception. That is not a typo. Adjusted for reverse...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Can't get any more simple than this. Reductio ad absurdum. Alternation Pattern. Follow the Money.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Wow what a hammer candle... inconceivable! Saw one of these 24 Feb, same size... gonna get a pullback, but probably not the next day. Loading up on puts here real risky. Some peeps got killed today betting the big gap down would lead to more selling, as every past gap did. Different today. In early trade VIX was barely moved on the big gap; Institutions were...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

The Fat Lady will sing the Black Swan Dive. It is coming. Do not be fooled. Watch the volume fade on this summertime pump. When the real bull market returns, volume will INCREASE with increasing price. Not like this, bull trap about to snap shut on MOMO crowd. Every bear market for 200 years has done this. Massive 50% retracement rally on low volume, "It's over!...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks like finishing a 3EW here at 3585. Follow-thru selling possible 10/03 but a lift from these LOTY is likely before lower imo. Final dig down likely coming in October after a weak pump. Still room to drop, RSI above 30 even now. Then Happy Halloween!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Clear three-leg stepwise downtrend. Monster rallies have occurred at 42, 63 and 70-day timeframes. Current decline is at the 42-day mark. Had a huge green candle there before that lasted just a week. Longer rally came at the 63 and 70 day marks. I do not pretend to know how much lower this will go. Observing only how long it may take to pivot. A pivot to weekly...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Rally is done folks. Fascinating how perfectly the 21 April bars pattern fits onto the weak retracement rally to right shoulder. DJI gone off 1K is NOT bullish. SandP down 4%, NQ just tanked > QQQ gave up 15 bucks in a day. Can you say CRASH?! Yet I still see folks putting out ideas about new rallies to test ATH. Buying this 'dip' will only disappoint, lol. Do...