DaddySawbucks

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Don't get too happy. Still Bear. Sudden selloffs occurring daily, another big drop may be coming. Not doomsaying, just sayin. Could get a rally or just more whipsawing chopdrop. Might get an impulsive finishing move next week. Consolidation zone. Trade lightly, trade with caution, or just don't trade. Look at these bizarre chart formations... all traps. Cash is...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bounced off 200DMA and of course FOMC coupled with missed ERs and Hopium drove it up up and away. Broke above DT line but indicators show bearish divergence, price rising while Stoch RSI falls. Trades at upper Bolly Band. as Bad news has had such a positive effect can hardly imagine what Good news might bring! Fed sez another 75bp hike next month. Is it priced...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

The gap must fill. Short not until it does imo. Measured Move projected with price bands, +302 pips for a 1:1 move. Gap may fill Friday. Expect weakness before FOMC, then a stupid bullup as follows: 7/27 1400 rate decision; initial ludicrous pop followed within minutes by a selloff. Price declines until ~1425 in falling wedge. At ~1428 EST J Powell will step up...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Look to the 2020 correction zig-zag to form bottoming price structure. Getting crushed to capitulation in October would be the usual outcome. Timeline for the bear likely will be in the 9-11 month range, bottoming on October or early November. Typical bear is nine months, rarely >15. RSI would get crushed well under 20%. Short -term oversold condition could...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Lotta folks sayin 'the bottom is in!' 'buy now!' get in before it's too late!' IMO it's still too early to ride this bronco. Double top pattern appears before capitulation. Next week could be a real rough ride. Triple witching OPEX this Friday. Indicators say SELL. I wouldn't take any longs yet. Rather miss the bus than get run over. I'm just funny that way. GLTA

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks just like Feb 2-10, just playing at lower price. CPI numbers next week can crush this hopium rally. ERs coming later likely to disappoint and guidance has hardly been rosy so far, can't expect much imo. Stupid happy fool rally not getting much higher imo, just another bottomfishing bull trap. Still waiting for capitulation and real panic, dip buyers not...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Oversold it is, higher it must climb, until lower it gets again. Bounce coming- likely. Bull run again- unlikely imo. Every bottom lifts VIX to >40 and true capitulation usually triggers trading halts. Didn't see these yet; not done. Bear markets are not quickie corrections that serve as dips to buy. They grind on for months or years, median 17 months. Don't...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Price rises to lower highs when RSI rising, hence 'hidden divergence'; RSI looks bullish but price remains bearish, each rally a bulltrap. Some of these rallies can get pretty fierce, shaking bears loose and sending shorts for cover. Then the trend resumes, trapping bulls. These bear market whipsaws just kill all the players. When you're in these, you get the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bottom is not in imo. It's a complex and massive correction. Bearmarket not nearly finished. Another 500 pips to go imo. Will grind for weeks. FOURTH Wave ended in H&S. Textbook breakdown. Anxiety mounting. Capitulation and extreme fear coming. VIX 80 again. Then anger and disbelief.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

ES tracking the downtrend TL. Can it break out? If not, rejection coming. No projection, just observation, watch, see what it does. Indicators mixed in the middle. Anything can happen!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Bars fit pretty neatly, eh? Just a notion. Wouldn't bet the farm on this countertrend move. Get high enough to stop out bears for loss then plunge. Fibo at 4300 probably be the end of this bearmarket rally. Might get higher, might not. Prior rallies in Jan, Mar failed. This will too imo. Gamblers' Game; Vicious beast.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Looks like price can break up out of down channel. First Resistance at 4220, then stronger R at 4300. Target in the box. 200 pips = 5%. Been oversold badly for weeks. Time for relief rally; a technical breakup. Once confidence returns the bullishness could get quite furious. Maybe you don't feel real good about buying now, that's reasonable. You don't want to...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Had triple bottom in March. Test it again and bull from oversold likely. Ultimate LOTY to come later in September/October, of course, pretty standard. Not advice, just a WAG.

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Extreme risk for any position now. Should this rally fail and reject from upper TL the fall will be steep and swift- capitulation, a fifth wave down. Capitulation is the intense fear and dismay of investors who realize too late that their stonks ain't gonna hunt. Just when you think, "Finally! It's going back up!" Suddenly it isn't. Then the hammer drops... the...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Sometimes runaway gaps don't fill. There are unfilled gaps from 2010 and 2015, lol. But, I suspect we might see another test of the low price before it really takes off. Trade small with caution!

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Could get another 100 pips to downside just looking at the TL. Notice how the long wicks in prior lows form an 'ultimate tl' and after close 5/11 how price rests on the red centerline of pitchfork. NOT sayin it will go there, just watch and wait to see if it does, would hate to get caught long and get mauled, eh? IF it crushes down to target price 3842 will...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Pattern reminiscent of the Christmas Crash 2018. Although seasonality usually favors price in April this was the Cruelest month ever. Dec was an unseasonal bear four years ago, a crash can happen at any time. Worst selloff since COVID today, more coming IMO. This big selloff day is unlikely to be followed by another, but anything is possible. The whole thing...

DaddySawbucks Updated 

Note the big red candles in prior selloffs of this trend each followed by a deep flush with reversal leaving a long wick. Crashing. Big ERs Weds FB and Thurs AMZN, AAPL all EOD after the close. Extreme risk in any position now, highly unstable, unpredictable. Catch this knife at your own risk. Indicators become worthless in a panic. Oversold >> More Oversold....