Daily-Price-Action

Daily-Price-Action

Could today’s FOMC push EURUSD out of its comfort zone? I think there’s a good chance. Even if today’s events don’t force a break, the EURUSD is going to be forced to make a decision soon. In Sunday's video, I pointed out this sideways price action below descending channel resistance. At the moment, that resistance area comes in just above 1.1080. That’s the...

Daily-Price-Action

The trigger for a short entry would be a daily close (5 pm EST) below channel support. However, there is a trend line that extends from the October low that was just breached on a 4-hour closing basis. From here any retest of the 1.1620/30 area as new resistance will likely encounter an influx of selling pressure. Key support comes in at the channel bottom near...

Daily-Price-Action

For those still on the sideline, I’m not so sure the EURUSD will reach 1.1670 for a third time. I pointed out this 4-hour channel (below) inside the member’s area last week. At the time the pair was trading at 1.1645 and had not yet broken below channel support. Friday’s 4-hour candle that closed at 1 pm EST sealed the deal. The 1.1604 close put the pair well...

Daily-Price-Action

It isn’t clear whether or not the NZDUSD will make it as high as 0.6985 next week. If it does, I’ll be on the lookout for a favorable selling opportunity. If it doesn’t, I will wait for a daily close below 0.6820, unless an entry materializes on the 4-hour chart. A daily close at 5 pm EST below the 0.6820 handle would target the May 2016 low at 0.6675....

Daily-Price-Action

As long as buyers keep prices above 113.15 on a daily closing basis (5 pm EST), the bullish scenario must be respected. If buyers fail to do so, there’s a high chance of a move back toward 111.60 and perhaps even the range lows near 108.20. We may also have a trend line in play that extends from the September 8 low and connects with the October low at 111.65. But...

Daily-Price-Action

After pushing prices higher by nearly 2,000 pips since April, EURJPY buyers are starting to look exhausted. As a sign that demand is harder to come by at these elevated levels, the pair has carved what appears to be a double top. That said, without a close below support there is no double top. In the case of the EURJPY, that support level comes in at 131.82....

Daily-Price-Action

If you aren’t already short from the 1.1875 retest, you may want to hold off for now. The pair is quite overextended at the moment so there’s a decent chance we’ll see a rotation higher into 1.1670 resistance next week. The next key support comes in at 1.1490. And if the price action throughout 2017 is any hint, we could very well see a bounce from this area back...

Daily-Price-Action

I’m going to remain on the sideline to see how this plays out. A bearish candlestick pattern from the 1.7030/80 area would pique my interest. A daily close below trend line support from the June 27 low would also be appealing. If the EURNZD closes above the confluence of resistance near 1.7030/80, I will not entertain a long position. I have a rule that I don’t...

Daily-Price-Action

The NZDUSD appears to have closed last week below this trend line that extends from the September 23, 2015 low. As evidence that the 0.6990 area will begin to attract sellers, look no further than the 4-hour candle that closed today (Monday) at 5 am EST. The high was 0.6990 and is still holding as the session high as I write this post. That said, I’m only...

Daily-Price-Action

A daily close above 113.15 would expose the May and July highs near 114.35. Beyond that we have 115.40, a level that served as a pivot between December of 2016 and March of this year. I’m going to stand aside for now and wait for a clear signal. The yen pairs have been difficult to read lately which warrants an extra dose of patience. The most notable event...

Daily-Price-Action

It’s going to take a daily close (5 pm EST) above it to open the door to upside targets. The first being the April and May highs near 1.0100. For those keeping track, the trend line in question appears to come in at 0.9810 at the time of this writing. A close above it would have us watching for a buying opportunity on a retest of the level as new support. Notice...

Daily-Price-Action

A daily close (5 pm EST) below 131.84 would suggest that a pullback to the confluence of support at 128.40 is likely. Such a breakdown would have us watching for a sell signal on a retest of the level as new resistance. Alternatively, a move above the current 2017 high at 134.40 would indicate that bullish momentum is alive and well. Source: bit.ly

Daily-Price-Action

EURUSD bulls look ready to capitulate following an impressive run so far in 2017. The 1,750 pip rally that began with the January 3 low is the longest since before the mid-2014 landslide that cost the pair 3,500 pips. We’ve been following this ascending channel (see chart below) for more than a month now. The bearish pin bar that formed at 1.2040 was the first...

Daily-Price-Action

From here I favor a move back toward the September low at 0.8744. A break below that would target the 0.8600 handle and perhaps even the current 2017 lows near 0.8370. Keep in mind that all of this is unfolding following the break of channel support on September 12. That was a significant breakdown in the sense that it ended the uptrend which began in May. The...

Daily-Price-Action

If you’re still on the sideline, the best approach might be to wait for a daily close (5 pm EST) below the confluence of support at 1.3020. Such a close would expose the August low at 1.2770. A break below that would target the June lows near 1.2615. The longer-term target for an ascending channel is usually the pattern’s low. In the case of the GBPUSD, that...

Daily-Price-Action

A study of the daily time frame shows what could be the formation of a head and shoulders pattern. The left shoulder developed in early August while the head of the structure was carved out between August 29 and September 22. Whether or not the pair forms the right shoulder is anyone’s guess. Furthermore, without a daily close below 1.1670, we can’t technically...

Daily-Price-Action

If sellers secure a close back below horizontal support at 0.9770, we could see the pair slide back toward 0.9435. On the other hand, a close above trend line resistance near 0.9800/20 would suggest a continuation of the September rally and expose key resistance at 1.0100. Keep in mind that the USDCHF is coming off of multi-year range support at 0.9435. The...

Daily-Price-Action

The EURUSD lost ground for the second week in a row. This was the likely scenario given the September 25th close below long-term channel support near 1.1900. Another probability that we discussed last week was that the 1.1670 area would attract bids if tested. It’s the August low and a level that served as a pivot between the 21st and 28th of July. Friday’s low...