Investors sometimes are so focused on short term movements that we forget the past. Historically the federal fund rate as averaged around 5+. As shown on the chart major retraction of the usdjpy pair began in 2007 and was made worse with the economic conditions of 2007. The fed from 2007 to now has kept the fed rate around the zero bound area. Zero-bound markets...
I currently see taking a long position to point D as a safe bet than I did before, The market has come to understand the feds policy for long run. This is going to help possibly take the pair out of the triangle and above the 103 mark set in march. The likely hood for this is narrow and a reversal downtrend at point D could set in a new bearish wave.
The bullish run this pair made last night will now begin to retract here soon. The PAIR is starting to form the double tops which are characteristics of a reversal trend. the MACD and the RSI also support this.
We could see a small flash drop contraction tonight.
Long run game needs to be focused on the downtrend of the second triangle. Don't worry about the fed or the BOJ QE, Keep short and hold at the bottom trend.
with the volatility of this pair I am becoming more and more bearish
This pair has more uptrend left in her. I believe that the pair will be tested at the 99.50 mark, from there we will know if this recent uptrend is the end of the bearish year its had or just a bullish flash.
down trend short