For me all of the signs are pointing to a bounce after the battering the USD has taken this week having tested the late November support line. A mixture of the University of Michigan confidence print at 13:55 (gmt) and people closing their short positions before the end of the day could prove to kick off the bounce.
I am favouring a short position at around the 15270 level, which i would expect it reach by then end of the week or early next week. The index hasn't yet responded to the consumption tax increase and is still enjoying the favourable manufacturing data out of the US yesterday.
With another bounce off the long term trend channel confirmed, we can expect the see the index rise to around the 6800 levee over the coming weeks.
I would still expect the pair to increase slightly before reversing. The high volatility news prints out of the US this week could prove to be the catalysts for it. Potential key fundamental drivers for a reversal this week: Tuesday - USD ISM Manufacturing (March) Thursdasy - USD ISM Non-Manufacruting Composite (March) Friday - USD Non-Farm Payrolls (March) If...
With the $1285 unable to be broken and the CCI suggesting the pair is oversold I am going long with $1390 my target.
Since the middle of the month the currency pair has been in tight range, this is undoubtedly going to change next week with a number of medium/high volatility prints out of both the Eurozone and Japan. The Eurozone CPI on Monday and German unemployment figures on Tuesday are really going to set the tone for the rest of the week. With the string of higher highs...
The Eurozone CPI (YoY) print at 9AM (GMT) could prove to be a catalyst for the downward trend for the week ahead.
As well as just kissing the 200 MA, the XAUUSD has bounced off the long term CCI support line twice now. Everything seems to be pointing to a reversal with any missed estimates in the news announcements out of the US this afternoon acting as its catalyst for the bounce. US News to consider 28/3/14 (all times GMT): 12:30 - USD Personal Income (Feb) 12:30 - USD...
The XAU/USD continued on its downwards trend yesterday despite starting the day higher, mainly in part to the strong durable goods data out of the US, it couldn't seem to break any lower than the $1298 price level though and closed slightly higher than the daily low. I am expecting gold to make a bullish bounce between the orange support line and the $1285 0.5 fib...