Davy_Dave_Charts

Davy_Dave_Charts

Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) swing traders and seasonal swingers update AMEX:RSP SP:SPX AMEX:SPY AMEX:VOO : it is very tempting to call this the local bottom, but I caution against making that assumption just yet. We aren't trying to catch falling knives. Instead, we're riding the momentum. Let's look at previous examples, in which the assumption was that...

Davy_Dave_Charts

I'd be cautious in calling a bottom. The major indices all show potential bear flags in the daily chart.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Rough projections based on previous bull cycles. Clouds are based on highs and lows of previous post halving year.

Davy_Dave_Charts

while it looks gloomy, lets consider the precedent established in the past few weeks. Between 5700 and 5860 we have 2 volume shelves, where we've seen an increase in buying volume. Couple this with the converging anchored VWAPs and a 150 Daily Moving average hovering there, I think we have a good basis to at least pause in the "sky is falling" narrative. It...

Davy_Dave_Charts

I'm inclined to believe that we are going to see a rotation into value, if we base and support off of the 200 DMA.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Median trajectory based on the fund's performance in the first post election year, dating back to 1989. It is also consistent with the general seasonality. Highlighted area is the median trajectory. DJ:DWCPF AMEX:VXF

Davy_Dave_Charts

... based on discount zones and/or resistance to support flip of recent ATH.

Davy_Dave_Charts

If the structure, for the near term, truly turns bullish (higher lows), we might be looking out of a move back into G-Fund mid-late February.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Nascent break above the AVWAP. I see head winds at 74 with a support area turned to resistance.

Davy_Dave_Charts

before I get long, I'd like to see a break of 233 and hold above 233, where sellers at the anchored VWAP has induced consistent rejection.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Order blocks on shorter time frames centered on 64K. We should see some headwinds here.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Initial rejection at the 50-61.8 Fib retracement, 50 DMA and Anchored VWAP, with an imbalance to resolve, below. If imbalance resolves and bases, watching for right shoulder of an inverse H&S.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Broke through confluence of resistance (VWAP, 50 DMA) and pushing into DBD supply. We made our move from G Fund, back into C Fund, effective market close today. Allocation 72% C-Fund / 28% Mutual Fund BTCFX, as of market close today.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Broke through the 50 DMA, VWAP resistance and Volume shelf.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Imbalance resolved on that 1 Day FVG... Respecting 21 Daily EMA. We have a MACD curl and bullish RSI trend... ready for the next leg up. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD AMEX:BITO

Davy_Dave_Charts

If rejected here, annotated a confluence of volume that could serve as a pivot for the next leg up.

Davy_Dave_Charts

The imbalances created by last week's impulsive selling need to be resolved, thus pulling price upward. There is a confluence of factors that lead to the probability of a rejection at 420-424. S/R flip at 420, Anchored VWAP where selling could occur and the 200 MA channel. These all reside in very close proximity.

Davy_Dave_Charts

Lost trend line support and invalidated a bullish order block. The buy the dip folks will bring this up but they'll just create liquidity for more exits. Watching that resistance flipped to support area and confluence with the 200 DMA. Chart is 4H but the MA envelope is on the daily chart frame.