UK100 a dividend house and boosted by Oil Stocks but now hedge funds turned from buying to short on oil stocks and they doing in mid winter season. We knows UK economy doing worst in decades and it's hard to hold this index up.
Energy sector perform well in 2022 almost 46.6% till to date. Russian invasion boost it well and Energy and Oil stocks big profits, but these stocks and sector can not trend for long connected with supply and demand. Winter running in Europe and it's almost on peak or little more gap to upside.
Just a quick look XOM gained 250% in just 2 years maybe fastest gain for this stock, from 2003 to 2008 it gained 200% almost took 5 to 6 years. War and sanctions boost oil prices but now we seeing Oil price declining but some oil companies stock still at ATH level like CVX. These stocks runs with supply and demand hard for these hold gains for longer period...
UK inflation in double digit and it never been easy to cool down inflation above 5% or sticky for long, Winter approaching and peoples rising hands against Energy, Electricity bills while or easy money gone. Globally we can face hard time for two years while central banks saying everything ok. Now world is more synchronize compare to 2000 and any bad news from...
If we look back in history and can learn how Bubble traps peoples with fake rally. How after 53% rally market collapsed over 80% again...
Now NDX moved up almost 20% is this the end? If we look back in history after 2000 NDX made several pullbacks over 20% before bottom.
Tech layoff is started with Negative GDP. 10Y -02Y = Negative (Yields) is another strong indicator of recession. We also seeing few bad earnings Bear Market can not be bottom without VIX 40+ (we can explore history)
Paper Gold still cheap compare to physical market and in recession it's response always good according to 2008 chart. When everything going expensive due to inflation but Gold still not priced in as a consumer product. It's can be long hold or good for this year.
EURUSD reached it's monthly bottom levels and showing double rejection or developing this month candle. ECB plan of rate hike where SWISS already done it.
Oil prices went double in short time and maybe War play a long role but for short period it can drop at 86 price. Due to inflation peoples can't afford high prices other side Businesses same position.
FTSE100 is not a growth index but value based. We debate inflation but entered in recession talk, for FTSE100 consumer stands strong is very important but UK Govt inject money again but it is not a solution. Index got a big part over 17% OIL shares but Oil can slip at some point.
DXY trying to rise again after Non-Farm Employment Change, AUDUSD at a good entry point in 4hr. Green line is possible TP.
UK facing high inflation and it breaking 40 years record, BOE rises 4 rate hike in row but price not going down. Even UK economy is different from US but we see FTSE100 did same like US markets in 2020 -35%, 2008 -48%, 2001 -52%. It's clearly not investment season and stocks like WMT, TGT also dropped badly other side bonds dropping. We can not say Cash is Trash...
USD made a longest strong rally against Yen but now seems this rally can end, Yen hot back despite DXY making strong trend. But there still upcoming interest rate hikes and in June 0.50bps is due and it can put more strength in DXY index.
Fed will come with many rate hikes this year and we are in long bull rally from many years, for many Traders H&S pattern is more reliable than others, by fundamental many things going against the market War, Inflation, Rate Hikes, Oil Prices, Food Prices, Supply Chain problem. Waiting with Cash is more sensible decision for now but if you want to to short I...
After Brexit French economy grow as money moved from London to Europe. But how long this Index can hold it's growth it's an important question. Weekly channel showing it's above the line and 2022-23 are interest rate years and growth stocks can drop.
BoE Shocks With First Rate Hike Since Crisis To Combat Inflation Bank Of England Raises Bank Rate To 0.25% From 0.10%